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**NOVEMBER 8, 2023**
On the Prospect website
Election 2023 Roundup
Prospect writers weigh in on elections around the nation. BY PROSPECT
STAFF
Nothing to See Here
The conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried is over, but little attention has
been paid to the lawyers who helped build up FTX-and they want to keep
it that way. BY LIBBY LEWIS
Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo Is Undercutting Bidenomics
The most tech-friendly Cabinet member should not be the one regulating
artificial intelligence. BY HENRY BURKE
Kuttner on TAP
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**** What a Difference a Day Makes
Democrats ran the table yesterday, but does that portend good news for
2024?
It doesn't get much better than Election Day 2023. Had the voters'
verdict been mixed, the same pundits who pounced on an outlier
**New York Times**/Siena poll over the weekend showing Trump beating
Biden would have spouted more gloom. Overnight, the storyline reversed.
But before we get too euphoric, the caveat is that off-year elections
often have their own distinct rhythms.
First, however, the good news. Abortion rights continued to trump
Trumpism, and not just in Ohio where reproductive rights advocates
continued their perfect seven-state winning streak with a double-digit
win for a constitutional protection.
Abortion rights helped Democrats keep control of the Virginia Senate and
take back the Virginia House, thanks in large part to Gov. Glenn
Youngkin's support of a 15-week ban. The issue figured in Pennsylvania
where Democrats won a state Supreme Court seat, and in Kentucky where
Gov. Andy Beshear, an abortion rights supporter, was re-elected by five
points.
Much of this is a story of turnout. Off-year elections are low-turnout
affairs. When reproductive rights are at stake, women, young people, and
progressives generally turn out. Also, well-educated voters are better
informed and more likely to turn out, especially in low-profile
off-years. That demographic used to back Republicans; now they tend to
vote for Democrats.
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The Democratic tilt in off-year elections has been evident not just in
odd-numbered years when only a few state and local races are in
contention, but in even-numbered years when Congress is up, such as 2022
and 2018. But of course in none of these years was Joe Biden on the
ballot.
So the question is whether voter enthusiasm around issues like abortion
rights and support for effective down-ballot candidates, as well as
grassroots organizing, will produce coattails in reverse. Biden is not
going to pull in down-ticket Democrats. They will need to pull in him.
Despite yesterday's huge gains, Biden's negatives are still with
us-notably his age and his foreign-policy quagmires. Even Biden's
good economy is not a plus because it hasn't yet transformed the life
chances of working people who've been dragged down by Biden's
neoliberal predecessors.
The Republicans may yet save Biden-with Trump's prosecutions and
tin-pot dictator antics; with issue positions that are far from what
most Americans want; and a far-right and dysfunctional U.S. House. But
don't expect 2024 to be anything other than agonizingly close.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter
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