If there’s one thing that the past few elections have taught us, it’s that the media needs to be careful when it comes to polls. Misreading or misleading polls can lead to the type of horse race coverage that so many deplore.
Having said that, last weekend’s New York Times/Siena College poll looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election has, unquestionably, spooked Democrats. The polls show President Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in key battleground states. Not only trailing, but trailing by a lot.
The polls show Trump with leads between four and 10 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The only battleground state where Biden leads is Wisconsin, where he was ahead by two percentage points.
Even though the election is still a year away and so much can happen between now and then, the numbers have some questioning whether Biden should even run.
After the Times published its poll results, CNN contributor and former Obama strategist David Axelrod tweeted, “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?”
In an interview with Politico’s Shia Kapos and Adam Cancryn, Axelrod said, “It’s overreacting to say I told him to drop out. I didn’t do that.” Axelrod added, “He’s the only one to make the decision. And if his decision is ‘no, I’m the best person to take this on,’ then he will.”
Still, some are wondering if Biden should announce he would not run again in 2024.
NBC News’ Peter Nicholas, Megan Lebowitz, Katherine Doyle and Alex Seitz-Wald wrote, “Pick a metaphor: President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign is a ‘five-alarm fire.’ It’s a cardiac case in need of a ‘defibrillator.’ Or a lemming on course to ‘slowly march into the sea and drown.’ All come from Democratic strategists whose low-boil frustrations with Biden’s candidacy erupted over the weekend amid a spate of bleak polling numbers.”
Then there was this opinion piece in The New York Times from John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School: “Joe Biden Is in Trouble.”
For now, there is no indication that Biden is considering not running in 2024. But could this growing media attention and coverage creep into Biden’s thinking? Or those close to Biden?
TV ratings since the war began
It has been a month since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. And over that time, CNN and Fox News have seen increased viewership, while MSNBC’s numbers have dropped.
Can’t say I’m surprised. CNN is typically a go-to source for breaking news, especially international news such as a war.
In the four weeks since the war began, CNN’s prime-time ratings are up 17% compared to the four weeks prior. Fox News’ prime-time ratings are up 10%. But MSNBC’s prime-time ratings have dropped 11%.
“Yes, but,” Axios’ Sara Fischer writes, “MSNBC has since started to claw back. The network saw a significant jump in prime-time viewers in the second week of the war compared to the first. Primetime ratings in weeks three and four were also up compared to the first, but have dropped sequentially since the second week.”
It also should be noted that cable news ratings at the start of the war in Ukraine tapered off after about a month. However, more Americans seem to be engaged, perhaps because of personal circumstances, in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Meet the new boss
New Washington Post chief executive Will Lewis (actually he starts after the first of the year) met with Post staff for the first time this week. Vanity Fair’s Charlotte Klein wrote, “Lewis, 54, read the room, and disarmed it with a mix of self-effacing humor, non-corporate speak, and candor, according to a recording of the meeting obtained by Vanity Fair.”
In the meeting, Lewis told staff, “We’re not in a place that we want to be in and we need to get to that place as fast as we can. It’s not going to happen overnight. You’ll find me very cooperative. I’m not a respecter of hierarchy when it comes to great ideas. I think the best ideas for our organization are going to be buried deep in the company, with someone who’s not a senior manager, hasn’t ever been listened to, but they will have the answers to what we need to do. We need to find those ideas.”
Media tidbits
Hot type
- This is from a week ago, but it’s remarkably well-done journalism. The New York Times used video evidence, data and interviews to reconstruct the wildfire that raged through Maui in August. It’s Mike Baker, Malika Khurana, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Riley Mellen, Natalie Reneau, Bedel Saget, Elena Shao, Anjali Singhvi and Charlie Smart with “The Deadly Maui Inferno, Hour By Hour.”
- On Oct. 28, a hockey player playing a pro league in England was killed when his neck was cut by an opponent’s skate blade during a game. The Athletic’s Michael Russo wrote about the memorial for the player in “In Hibbing, Minn., he was just ‘Adam’: Memories of Adam Johnson, a local hockey hero gone too soon.”
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Have feedback or a tip? Email Poynter senior media writer Tom Jones at [email protected].