November 6, 2023
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Poll: Trump 51%, Biden 49% as 2024 looms, lead jumps to 5 points in four-way race as calls for Biden to step aside rise
By Robert Romano
Former President Donald Trump continues to press his advantage against incumbent President Joe Biden in the latest HarrisX-Messenger poll, 51 percent to 49 percent, a lead that jumps to five points when Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Cornell West are included in the mix, with Trump garnering 41 percent, Biden 36 percent, Kennedy 11 percent and West 2 percent.
In the four-way race, Trump loses 10 points of support and Biden loses 13 points of support, underscoring independents’ desire for third-party alternatives.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support a third-party candidate, with 11 percent of Democrats supporting Kennedy over Biden and 2 percent supporting West. Only 6 percent of Republicans support Kennedy and 0 percent of them support West.
Trump does a better job than Biden at retaining his party’s support in the four-way race, garnering 82 percent of Republicans versus Biden getting 74 percent of Democrats. Biden only gets 5 percent of Republicans to Trump’s 8 percent of Democrats.
On independents, Trump leads both the two-way and four-way races, garnering 53 percent of independents to Biden’s 47 percent, and in the four-way race, Trump gets 33 percent, Biden gets 25 percent, Kennedy 18 percent and West 4 percent.
Amazingly, in the two-way race, Trump is achieving historically high support among minorities — confirming results in other recent polls — with Trump getting 35 percent of Blacks and 47 percent of Hispanics, Biden getting 65 percent of Blacks and 53 percent of Hispanics.
Similarly, Trump is crushing the gender gap, getting 57 percent of males to Biden’s 43 percent, and Biden only getting 54 percent of females to Trump’s 46 percent.
In short, those numbers are catastrophic for Joe Biden, with the Nov. 2024 election just one year away now as the incumbent president appears to be exceedingly vulnerable to a challenge. Biden only gets a 41 percent approval rate, with 56 percent disapproving.
This is persistent job disapproval for Biden, with support collapsing since the botched, deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan in Aug. 2021, never going back above 50 percent since, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls taken since 2021. Sticky inflation, Covid fatigue and unpopular wars overseas haven’t helped, but foremost on voters’ minds is the President’s age, who will be turning 81 on Nov. 20.
This has led to more and more calls for Biden to step aside, including most recently former Obama senior advisor David Axelrod, citing “legitimate concern” over Biden’s reelection prospects on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 5, showing Trump leading battleground states easily, a devastating sign of chaos among Democrats panicked over Biden’s poor showing now that there is no longer the Covid pandemic to run against.
The knives are out.
Axelrod stated, “The greatest concern is that his biggest liability is the one thing he can't change. Among all the unpredictables there is one thing that is sure: the age arrow only points in one direction... [T]he stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore. Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?”
That’s a good question, but the state of the country will not improve if Biden steps aside, thus creating a succession crisis within the Democratic Party. Age aside, voters are still likely to judge the incumbent party by the conditions of the economy and America’s current position. For Democrats, it might be the only thing worse than running Joe Biden in 2024 is not running him. We’ll find out soon.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
John Della Volpe: Joe Biden Is in Trouble
By John Della Volpe
Mr. Della Volpe is the director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School and has overseen its youth poll since 2000. He was a pollster for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign in 2020.
The savage terrorist attack on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza are spurring many young Americans to engage with the political moment at a heightened intensity that could, ultimately, influence the 2024 presidential race. President Biden is offering fulsome support to Israel, though with more words of caution recently. Yet according to multiple recent polls, fewer than a quarter of young voters — who were crucial to Democratic victories in 2020 and overperformance in 2022 — approve of the way that the president is handling the response to the war between Israel and Hamas.
In an Economist/YouGov survey of U.S. adults, more than a third of respondents ages 18 to 29 reported that the Israeli government’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks that claimed 1,400 lives is “too harsh.” Each day Israel bombards Gazans and the United States is not viewed as a peacemaker, Mr. Biden’s political position takes a hit with younger voters who see the war largely through the life-or-death prism of human rights.
To be clear, most 20- and 30-somethings agree that Hamas committed war crimes in Israel. Most do not look at this as an either/or situation: They want America to help both the Israeli and the Palestinian people. But young progressives remain unconvinced of their government’s commitment to safeguarding the innocent. If that continues, the winning Biden 2020 coalition is at greater risk of fracturing — and in the process, making Donald Trump’s return to the White House more likely.
Many young voters have been reluctant to back Mr. Biden for some time now, despite record-setting levels of support from Gen Zers and millennials in 2020. The latest battleground state polls by The New York Times and Siena College show Mr. Biden holding a one-point lead over Mr. Trump among registered voters under 30 and a six-point lead among likely voters in the same age category. In 2020, exit polls showed Mr. Biden winning the youth vote cohort, 60 to 36 percent.
Get full story here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/opinion/joe-biden-polling.html
Steven Shepard: There are a ton of elections Tuesday. Here are 10 to watch.
The last big set of elections before 2024 will have a lot of lessons. Here’s a cheat sheet.
By Steven Shepard
It’s time for the biggest elections before 2024.
And the results of next week’s races will reverberate far beyond their local boundaries.
From a statewide race in the largest hyper-competitive battleground, to the latest effort to tap into popular abortion-rights support in red states, to new tests of the Black voter enthusiasm that President Joe Biden and Democrats will need, Election Day 2023 will be full of lessons for 2024.
Here’s my cheat sheet on the 10 races that both election nerds and casual observers should be following to see where voters stand a year before the presidential election.
(Incumbents are named in all-caps. Previous election results via state and county election boards, The Almanac of American Politics and The Virginia Public Access Project)
Kentucky governor
ANDY BESHEAR (D) vs. Daniel Cameron (R)
What we’ll learn: Whether a popular governor can defy his state’s partisan lean
Previous election (2019): Andy Beshear (D) 49%, Matt Bevin (R) 49%
2020 presidential election: Donald Trump (R) 62%, Joe Biden (D) 36%
Beshear has high approval ratings after four years as governor, especially for a Democrat. But Cameron, the state attorney general, is racing to yoke him to Biden, who lost nearly two-thirds of the vote in Kentucky in 2020 — and has only gotten less popular since.
If Beshear can win a second term, it will be thanks to a large swath of Trump voters. But if Cameron achieves a victory, it will be a sign that national politics — and enmity for Biden — is a serious danger for Democrats next year.
Mississippi governor
TATE REEVES (R) vs. Brandon Presley (D)
What we’ll learn: Do Democrats have an enthusiasm problem with Black voters?
Previous election (2019): Tate Reeves (R) 52%, Jim Hood (D) 47%
2020 presidential election: Trump 58%, Biden 41%
Democrats thought they had the ingredients for an upset four years ago, when they ran Mississippi’s popular then-state attorney general, Jim Hood, in an open-seat race against Reeves, the lieutenant governor at the time.
But Hood couldn’t marshal the support among Black voters, who make up nearly 40 percent of the electorate, needed to win in the racially polarized state.
Reeves has some baggage, including the welfare funding scandal that’s also ensnared hall-of-fame quarterback Brett Favre. And Presley — a distant cousin of the Tupelo-born King of Rock and Roll — is making a big investment in turning out Black voters. But the state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999, and Democrats are currently shut out of power in Jackson.
Ohio Issue 1
Whether to establish a right to abortion in state constitution
What we’ll learn: If the end of abortion rights is still a millstone for Republicans
2020 presidential election: Trump (R) 53%, Biden (D) 45%
Following the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision, and powered by public opinion, abortion-rights supporters have found a way to circumvent Republican legislatures that are considering restricting abortion: popular initiative.
Ohio’s statewide measure would amend the state constitution to create the right to an abortion; the state’s 2019 “trigger law” is currently on ice in the courts but would be among the strictest in the country if allowed to take effect.
Polls show the measure is likely to win, though history suggests surveys underestimate the “no” vote in ballot measures. The baseline here is an August proxy vote that would’ve established a 60-percent threshold to amend the state constitution, proposed by conservatives with the pending abortion measure in mind. It failed, 57 percent to 43 percent.
Pennsylvania state Supreme Court
Daniel McCaffery (D) vs. Carolyn Carluccio (R)
What we’ll learn: Where a critical swing state stands going into 2024
Previous election (2013): Max Baer (D) 71% (retention vote)
2020 presidential election: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 49%
Unlike in Wisconsin this spring, the race for a vacant seat on Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court won’t determine the majority: There are currently four Democrats and two Republicans on the bench.
But this is an explicitly partisan race, with party ID labels on the ballot — the first statewide contest in Pennsylvania since the 2022 midterms.
Last year, Democrats won the Senate race by 5 points and the governor’s race by 15 — but those are probably outliers when it comes to discerning the Keystone State’s partisan lean ahead of the fight for its 19 electoral votes next year.
Virginia state Senate: 31st District
Russet Perry (D) vs. Juan Pablo Segura (R)
What we’ll learn: Whether Glenn Youngkin’s Republican revival continues in territory that had been rapidly trending blue
Previous election: N/A (redistricting)
2021 gubernatorial election: Glenn Youngkin (R) 50%, Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
Democrats’ narrow majority in the state Senate is their only toehold on power in Richmond after the GOP’s 2021 victories.
This district lies at the epicenter of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s push to claw back traditionally Republican territory that had raced toward Democrats over the past decade or two. Nearly the entire district is in Loudoun County, the wealthy Northern Virginia suburbs and exurbs west of Washington.
Crime and education are the hallmarks of the Republican campaign here, though Perry’s time as a commonwealth’s attorney in Loudoun could blunt some of those attacks.
Virginia state Senate: 16th District
SIOBHAN DUNNAVANT (R) vs. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D)
What we’ll learn: Can Republicans craft a winning message on abortion?
Previous election: N/A (redistricting)
2021 gubernatorial election: Terry McAuliffe (D) 53%, Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%
A Republican sweep would allow Youngkin to enact his agenda, which includes outlawing abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the expectant mother. That’s transformed this race in the Richmond suburbs into a proxy battle over abortion rights.
VanValkenburg, a state delegate, is hitting Dunnavant, the incumbent state senator, for backing the Youngkin proposal. Dunnavant’s response ads make the case that the 15-week restriction is “not a ban” and highlights her background as an obstetrician/gynecologist.
Given the district’s blue lean, Dunnavant is an underdog. An upset victory would suggest Youngkin may have found a winning GOP message on abortion. But a comfortable VanValkenberg win likely means Republicans are still grasping for a response.
Virginia state House: 57th District
Susanna Gibson (D) vs. David Owen (R)
What we’ll learn: Are sex scandals fatal in the post-Trump era?
Previous election: N/A (redistricting)
2021 gubernatorial election: Glenn Youngkin (R) 51%, Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%
We can all pretend that we’re above the prurient interest in Gibson’s electoral fortunes, after the Democratic nominee was revealed back in September to have had sex with her husband on a live-streaming porn site. But let’s get real. Of the 100 state House races, this is the first one many people are checking.
The state Republican Party sent out thousands of mailers with censored photos and quotes from Gibson’s explicit videos to highlight the scandal in the closing weeks of the race.
The race is a test of whether sex scandals are still shocking to voters. It’s competitive, suburban-Richmond territory, too: Youngkin carried it by roughly the same margin as the statewide result two years ago.
New Jersey state Senate: 3rd District
ED DURR (R) vs. John Burzichelli (D)
What we’ll learn: Can the author of 2021’s biggest electoral upset keep on truckin’?
Previous election: N/A (redistricting)
2020 presidential election: N/A
The most surprising election result of the last off-year race, in 2021, belonged to Durr, the former truck driver who beat state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
Now Durr faces his first reelection bid, and there have been some bumps along the way, including condemnation from fellow South Jersey GOP candidates over controversial Facebook posts Durr made or liked about abortion.
Republicans made gains in the 2021 state legislative elections, propelled by a strong performance by GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who came within 3 points of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
Will Murphy and Democrats snap back? The indictment of Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez in September isn’t going to help.
Rhode Island congressional special election: 1st District
Gabe Amo (D) vs. Gerry Leonard (R)
What we’ll learn: Whether Democrats’ special-election overperformance continues
Previous election (2022): David Cicilline (D) 64%, Allen Waters (R) 36%
2020 presidential election: Biden 64%, Trump 35%
There’s little doubt that Amo, the former Biden White House aide who won a September primary to replace Cicilline, will win Tuesday’s special election.
But the margin matters, at least as a potential 2024 indicator. Democrats have generally overperformed in special elections this year — but of the 27 such races, only one was for a congressional seat. The others were in much smaller state legislative districts.
Suffolk County (N.Y.) executive
Ed Romaine (R) vs. Dave Calone (D)
What we’ll learn: Is New York’s red wave still going after the GOP’s 2022 midterm success?
Previous election (2019): Steve Bellone (D) 56%, John Kennedy (R) 43%
2020 presidential election: Trump (R) 49%, Biden (D) 49%
Of the nation’s 25 most-populous counties, Suffolk County, which comprises the eastern half of Long Island, is the only one Trump carried in 2020 (and he only carried it by about three-hundredths of a percentage point).
Democrats avoided a “red wave” generally in 2022, but not in New York — and especially not on Long Island, where Republicans swept the state’s four congressional seats thanks to a strong top-of-the-ticket performance by then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Long Islander who came within six points of ousting Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
The race between Romaine, the Republican supervisor of Brookhaven Town, and Democratic attorney and businessperson Calone will tell us whether Republicans are still ascendant on the Island, which could have major implications for the battle to control the House: Reps. Nick LaLota, Andrew Garbarino, George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito are all among Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbents up next year.
To view online: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/04/10-biggest-races-election-day-00125386