November 3, 2023
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Unemployment continues slow rise to 3.9 percent, 348,000 fewer jobs reported in household survey as 2024 looms
By Robert Romano
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in October, reflecting 348,000 fewer people reporting they had jobs in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey and an additional 146,000 saying they couldn’t find work to 6.5 million.
416,000 left the labor force altogether as the labor participation rate dipped to 62.7 percent amid continued demographic shifts of the aging population, but also individuals giving up on looking for work altogether.
Job losers increased 201,000 to 3.06 million, and part-time for economic reasons increased by 218,000 to 4.3 million. Those are worrisome indicators.
The news comes as unemployment continued claims have increased by 529,000 since Sept. 2022 to 1.8 million, according to Department of Labor data, returning to recent highs seen earlier this year.
The number of unemployed tends to rise towards the end of the business cycle as the economy overheats and inflation drops, reflecting cooler consumer demand, periodically resulting in recessions.
A good indicator to watch is the spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries. When it inverts and goes negative, that usually predicts peak labor market conditions and then when it uninverts, it predicts rising unemployment rates.
Well, after a deep inversion in 2022 and 2023 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, down to a -1.08 percent low in June 2023, the spread is almost normalized at -0.31 percent. When it uninverts, perhaps into 2024, that is usually when labor markets experience the most upheaval.
All of which is terrible news for President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection in 2024, and might have to deal with twin maladies of higher unemployment and sticky inflation—usually a toxic combination for incumbent presidents. Just ask Jimmy Carter, who in 1980, with high unemployment and inflation, lost in a 44-state landslide to Ronald Reagan.
If there is any good news, it is that, so far, at any rate, the Fed is projecting unemployment to continue to rise, averaging 4.1 percent in 2024, a mild upheaval in labor markets, with a few hundred thousand more jobs lost. It’s nearly there.
And, in Biden’s case, it might have been avoidable, who, by the time he came into office, Congress had already borrowed and the Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars for Covid, and 16 million of the 25 million jobs lost to Covid had already been recovered, opted for another $1 trillion stimulus and trillions more of borrowing and printing. Biden could’ve tapped on the brakes, but he didn’t.
All told, nearly $7 trillion was printed for Covid after the M2 money supply increased peaked at $22 trillion in April 2022, 43.5 percent above its $15.35 trillion mark in Feb. 2020 right before Covid shut down the global economy.
Now, the juice from the stimulus is gone, the money supply is decreasing, inflation has cooled from its June 2022 9.1 percent peak, and peak employment appears to be in the rear-view mirror. Is the inevitable correction dead ahead? Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/11/unemployment-continues-slow-rise-to-3-9-percent-348000-fewer-jobs-reported-in-household-survey-as-2024-looms/
Video: Senator Tuberville Takes Stand Against Biden’s Intrusive IRS
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz0Yu4wpfxU
Biden Plans to Vastly Expand “Refugee” Applicants to Circumvent Border Crisis, Ignoring Public Opinion
By Manzanita Miller
While there is a dearth of data showing the border crisis is costing Biden heavily in polls, Biden’s plan to dramatically expand immigration and resettle record-breaking numbers of individuals from Latin America through the refugee program is wildly out of step with public opinion.
Not only have the massive spikes in illegal border crossings strained border patrol resources and posed threats to national security, but the Biden Administration’s response is to vastly expand the number of individuals entering the U.S. under the refugee program.
According to CBS News, the Biden Administration plans to “resettle” as many as 125,000 refugees in the year ahead, with almost 50,000 coming from Latin America alone. This number represents the highest refugee resettlement target since the early 1990’s and is not remotely in-line with public preferences.
Biden’s refugee resettlement plan is a reversal of Trump-era efforts to scale down the number of refugees entering the country, largely due to strains on U.S. resources and national security concerns. However, Biden has flipped that script and is well on the way to expanding the U.S. refugee program to unprecedented levels despite public resistance.
In Trump’s last year in office, a little over 10,000 individuals were admitted using refugee status, but Biden more than doubled that number by 2022. By the end of FY 2023 the Biden Administration will resettle as many as 60,000 individuals and will likely fully reach its target of 125,000 individuals in FY 2024.
The problem with this lofty resettlement agenda, aside from concerns over proper vetting of individuals and strains on U.S. resources, is the majority of Americans do not want immigration or refugee programs expanded.
October polling from YouGov shows Americans are deeply concerned about the toll illegal immigration is taking on the country, and broadly reject the idea of expanding the refugee program.
The poll asks Americans directly whether the United States should or should not accept refugees from Syria, Gaza, El Salvador, and Ukraine, and Americans strongly oppose accepting refugees from all countries except Ukraine.
Americans don’t believe the U.S. should accept refugees from El Salvador by a fifteen-percentage point margin, 45% to 30%, even though El Salvador is one of the regions the Biden Administration is greatly expanding entry from.
Americans don’t believe the U.S. should accept refugees from Syria by a fourteen-percentage point margin, 46% to 32%, and Americans reject the idea of accepting refugees from Gaza by a thirteen-percentage point margin, 46% to 33%. Americans are more open to accepting individuals from Ukraine and do so by a seventeen-percentage point margin, 50% to 33%.
According to the poll, only around a third of Americans (34%) say immigration makes the United States better off, and support for expanding the refugee program is even lower. Just 29% of Americans say refugees improve the U.S. compared to 39% who say they do not, a ten-percentage point difference.
There are strong partisan differences, with Republicans saying 64% to 12% refugees make the U.S. worse, while Democrats say 45% to 17%, refugees make the U.S. better. Independents side with Republicans, saying 36% to 28% that refugees do not improve the U.S.
Notably, even on the matter of legal immigration Americans are becoming weary. Just 32% of the country wants to increase legal immigration, while the majority (57%) want numbers reduced or kept the same. Even among Democrats support for increasing legal immigration is at just 40%.
These numbers come on top of polling from Reuters/ Ipsos that showed Americans say 48% to 37% that immigration is contributing to increased difficulties for native-born Americans.
Concerns about elevated crime and a slew of drugs and other smuggled items streaming over the southern border are major drivers behind this shift in sentiment on immigration. Strains on U.S. resources are also a concern.
According to Gallup, the share of Americans who say immigration is a good thing has dropped precipitously by nine percentage points in three years since Biden took office, from 77% in 2020 to 68% today.
Americans are increasingly skeptical of immigration and have deep concerns about President Biden’s attempt to expand the U.S. refugee program. With public opinion favoring a more controlled approach to immigration and asylum seekers, a law-and-order candidate like former President Trump running on tighter border security and increased scrutiny of refugee applicants could be increasingly appealing to Republicans and swing voters.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/11/biden-plans-to-vastly-expand-refugee-applicants-to-circumvent-border-crisis-ignoring-public-opinion/
ALG Praises House Passage of Fiscally Balanced Israel Aid
Nov. 2, 2023, Fairfax, Va.--Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement praising the U.S. House of Representatives for approving $14.3 billion of military assistance to Israel:
“Americans for Limited Government applauds the House of Representatives for approving a $14.3 billion military aid package to Israel in the wake of the horrific Sabbath Attack by the government of Gaza (Hamas) that targeted civilians. Israel’s 9/11 was horrifying in its brutality and utter inhumanity, and the U.S. has a responsibility to support our Israeli allies. Speaker Mike Johnson took a necessary step to protect the American taxpayer by offsetting the $14.3 billion with immediate cuts to the Internal Revenue Service, taking money that was appropriated to expand the agency and redirecting it to support Israel. The aid package also eliminated the Biden administration’s demand that billions of dollars be provided to the Palestinian Authority and Gaza for humanitarian aid. Thankfully, the House rejected sending U.S. tax dollars to those who are perpetrating and cheering the mass slaughter of Israelis. We urge the Senate to pass the House version of the Israel aid package and send it to President Biden for his consideration. This targeted spending to provide needed resupply of missiles for the vaunted Iron Dome missile defense system among other items should be passed immediately with the spending offset by cuts in existing federal government programs.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2023/11/alg-praises-house-passage-of-fiscally-balanced-israel-aid/