Dear John,
Over the past few months, NDN has produced extensive coverage and analysis of the 2020 Democratic primary and general election. Below you can find some of the most important pieces that we've written on these subjects. We're also proud that our election analysis has appeared in a wide variety of media, including the Washington Post, New York Times, Politico, FT, Daily Beast, and MSNBC.
Recent Work:
Biden Takes Control - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 3/4/20 - Biden's big Super Tuesday wins capped a truly remarkable week for the Vice President and his resilient campaign. Some thoughts on how the campaign can grow, innovate, and win in the weeks ahead.
Ridin' With Biden, Vetting Bernie, Trump Is Losing The Election - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 3/2/20 - In the coming weeks voters and party leaders are likely to rally to Joe Biden, putting him in a commanding lead to win the Democratic nomination. New polling shows what's at stake - not only is Trump struggling but the Senate GOP's prospects are eroding.
The Risk Of Bernie - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 2/25/20 - It is going to be a very hard journey for Bernie Sanders to go from socialist insurgent to leader of the Democratic Party to defeating Donald Trump this fall. The cold hard reality is that Sanders has never been a Democrat and has never won over general election voters in a swing state.
Biden Or Bust, Vetting Bernie, Four Ways To Combat Trump - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 2/24/20 - Simon gives his thoughts on why Biden is likely the only Democrat able to beat Bernie, why Bernie must be better vetted on his past associations and beliefs, and how Democrats are in strong position to defeat Trump and be competitive for the Senate majority.
Crossing The Rubicon - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 1/27/20 - The GOP's increasing acceptance of illiberalism and actions at odds with our democratic tradition to gain/maintain power has become the most important political story of our time.
Older Work, Still Relevant:
Re-Imagining The Parties In An Age Of Hacking, Disinformation - Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 9/7/19 - New digital threats will require US political parties to start seeing themselves as front line actors in our national effort to protect our elections and discourse. Some thoughts on how the parties can re-imagine themselves to meet these challenges head on.
Americans Under 45 Are Breaking Hard Toward The Democrats - And For Good Reason - Simon Rosenberg and Chris Taylor, NDN, 8/2/19 - Among the most significant political developments of the Trump era is the dramatic shift of under 45 year old voters towards the Democrats. From 2000 to 2016 D margin w/under 45s was 6 points. In 2018 it was 25.
Dems Have Already Won Back Voters In The Rust Belt. It's Trump Who Needs To Win Them Back Now - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 6/5/19 - It is a myth that Trump's anti-immigrant and protectionist policies have made it difficult for Democrats to win in the Rust Belt in 2020. Trump is trailing badly there now raising questions about Trumpism itself has become a grand failure.
Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 2/11/19 - The dramatic erosion of the GOP brand in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the country over the past two elections is one of the biggest stories in American politics. Trump's border extremism has cost the GOP dearly, and it hasn't kept the industrial north from slipping away.
In All Important Florida, Democrats Lost Ground With Hispanic Voters - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 11/9/18 - In a year when Democrats made gains with Hispanics across the nation, Florida Democrats saw their performance with Hispanics decline. Work has to be done to figure out why.
$38 Million For Beto, And Why It Matters - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 10/30/18 - Democrats have been raising a lot of money this cycle. This is not just about fear of Trump - it is about the broad adoption of a more authentic people based politics suited for the digital age championed by Dean, Obama, and yes even Trump himself.
Best, Chris
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