Last October, the crack forecasters at Bloomberg Economics issued a remarkably confident prediction that the US economy faced a "100% chance" of recession the year ahead. Headlines citing that 100% figure ricocheted across the internet, with commentator after commentator issuing hot take after hot take about how the absolutely, positively, definitely-on-the-way recession would affect consumer confidence, President Biden’s political future, and life as we know it. 

A year later, the end date on that prediction has come due... and economic growth was just measured at a remarkably robust 4.9% rate, the highest in years. You would think this might be a moment for the Bloomberg Economics team to take stock and adjust their models, or at least feel a little bit sheepish. Instead, it seems, they decided their model wasn’t wrong with its prediction of a 100% chance of recession — it was the economy that’s wrong, for not behaving according to the model. At least that’s the only plausible conclusion to be drawn from the fact that their latest piece is titled “6 reasons why a US recession is likely and coming soon.” They were 100% wrong with 100% confidence, and yet still they can’t stop, and they won’t stop.

Make it make sense.

The American economy has been in a state of tumult for almost 4 years, veering from pandemic lockdowns and astronomical unemployment rates, to labor shortages and sharp inflation, to robust public investments and strong growth. Nothing has seemed “normal” and the vibes haven’t been great either.

So it’s pretty remarkable to see this chart highlighted by Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute, which shows that the economy is now in a better place than was projected before COVID hit. Even after adjusting for inflation, the US economy is larger and stronger than had been predicted in January 2020 — before any significant economic impacts of the pandemic. This doesn’t mean everything is going great, of course, but it does show the power of policies that focus on investing in America, raising wages, and growing the economy from the middle out.

After striking for more than a month and gaining overwhelming public support, the United Auto Workers union has now reached tentative agreements with all of the “Big Three” US carmakers — Ford, Stellantis, and GM. The headline economics are quite extraordinary — including a 70% increase to the starting rate, a 15% increase to the top rate, and the elimination of the “two tier” system that prevented some employees from ever reaching the top rates. They’re also self-evidently affordable for an industry that banked $250 billion in profits over the past 10 years.

But another key piece of these agreements is spelled out in a fascinating Twitter thread: the union also won commitments by the companies to re-open closed plants. This is a whole other facet of worker power: the power to shape corporate investments and therefore to help co-determine the economic future of communities. On top of that, the UAW also managed to win the right to strike over any future potential plant closures, which means there’s a whole new power in the union — and a brighter perspective on the economic future of the industrial Midwest. 

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