October 31, 2023 Dear John, Since the U.S. government released statistics on fiscal year (FY) 2023 border enforcement recently, there has been much focus on the fact that the 2.5 million migrant encounters recorded at the U.S.-Mexico boundary represent a new historic high. But far less attention has been given to important trends behind the numbers, including how arrivals have been reshaped since the lifting of the pandemic-era Title 42 expulsions policy in May as well as the sharp diversification of flows. For the first time ever, migrants from beyond Mexico and northern Central America represent a majority of border encounters, with 51 percent of encounters from nationalities elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere or farther, a new Migration Policy Institute commentary underscores. That is up from just 12 percent three years ago. “The overall numbers and shifting migration trends, in particular the diversification of nationalities and increasing shares of families and unaccompanied minors, have been exacerbating Border Patrol capacity and processing constraints,” analysts Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh and Ariel Ruiz Soto write. The commentary examines the carrot-and-stick approach put in place with the end of Title 42. The strategy, which seeks to disincentivize irregular crossings while incentivizing orderly arrivals at ports of entry with the creation or expansion of legal pathways and use of the CBP One app, is shifting arrival patterns. Encounters of migrants between ports of entry fell by more than 160,000 from FY 2022 to FY 2023, even as arrivals at ports of entry more than doubled to 430,000. Without the increase in arrivals at ports of entry, overall encounters in FY 2023 would not have surpassed those of the previous year. The commentary makes the case that to address the realities at the border, the United States must build out capacity at all levels of an immigration system that is presently unable to adequately respond. The Biden administration’s emergency supplemental budget request pending before Congress, which includes $13.6 billion for border security and expanded capacity in other parts of the immigration system, offers a means to do so, the authors suggest. Read the commentary here: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/border-numbers-fy2023. Sincerely,  Michelle Mittelstadt
Director of Communications and Public Affairs
Migration Policy Institute | 
