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Welcome to the Friday, March 6, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Voter turnout in Super Tuesday states
- Medical marijuana legal for two-thirds of Americans, recreational marijuana legal for one quarter
- Quiz: What percentage of state legislative incumbents who faced a primary challenger in 2018 lost in the primary election?
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Voter turnout in Super Tuesday states
Democratic voter turnout in 19 Pivot Counties holding presidential primaries on Super Tuesday was lower than the rest of that state’s Democratic turnout as compared to 2016. Those counties span seven states. Voters in 46 Pivot Counties in nine states cast ballots in presidential primaries on Super Tuesday.
Ballotpedia identified 206 Pivot Counties that President Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and President Barack Obama (D) won in 2008 and 2012.
Our team looked at the Democratic raw turnout figures in seven of these states, including 34 Pivot Counties, where complete returns are available.
- Arkansas: Woodruff County, Arkansas’ only Pivot County, had a 48.5% decrease in Democratic turnout. Statewide Democratic turnout was up 3%.
- Minnesota: Nineteen counties (or about one in five counties) in Minnesota are Pivot Counties. Democratic turnout was up 243% in Pivot Counties and 263% statewide. In 2020, more than 745,000 people voted in the Democratic primary, compared to 205,000 in 2016.
- North Carolina: Democratic turnout was down 12.0% in North Carolina’s six Pivot Counties. Statewide turnout increased by 15.7%.
- Tennessee: Democratic turnout was down 9.8% in Tennessee’s one Pivot County, Hardeman County. Statewide turnout, however, was up 37.9%, increasing from 372,000 voters in 2016 to 513,000 in 2020.
- Texas: Democratic turnout was down 6.5% in Texas’ only Pivot County, Jefferson County. Statewide voter turnout rose 54.3% from 1.4 million to 2.2 million.
- Vermont: Essex County, the one Pivot County in Vermont, had voter turnout decrease 11.7%. Statewide voter turnout increased 16.5%.
- Virginia: Democratic turnout was up 52.2% across Virginia’s five Pivot Counties. Statewide voter turnout increased 68.7% from 785,000 in 2016 to 1.3 million in 2020.
Former Vice President Joe Biden won 29 Pivot Counties in these seven states. Sen. Bernie Sanders won three. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who withdrew from the race and endorsed Biden on Monday, also won two Pivot Counties in Minnesota.
Among states containing Pivot Counties, Biden won six of them and Sanders won his home state of Vermont.
Stay tuned for more updates next week with the full data.
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Medical marijuana legal for two-thirds of Americans, recreational marijuana legal for one quarter
Americans in 33 states and the District of Columbia currently have access to medical marijuana. This represents 68% of the country, or 221,469,793 people.
Seventeen of those states legalized medical marijuana via statewide citizen initiatives, and the remaining 16 did so through legislation.
Medical marijuana is legal in 14 states with Democratic trifectas, 10 states with divided government, and nine states with Republican trifectas. Virginia is the only state with a Democratic trifecta that has not legalized medical marijuana. It became a Democratic trifecta following the 2019 elections.
Of the 33 states with legalized medical marijuana, 11 states and the District of Columbia have also legalized recreational marijuana. This represents 28.4% of the country (92,434,672 people). Voters have legalized recreational marijuana primarily through initiatives. Of those eleven states, seven have Democratic trifectas and four have divided governments. No states with a Republican trifecta have legalized recreational marijuana.
The cultivation, distribution, and use of marijuana remains illegal at the federal level.
So far in 2020, three states will have marijuana legalization initiatives on their November ballots: Mississippi, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
- Mississippi voters will decide the Mississippi Medical Marijuana Amendment, an indirect initiated constitutional amendment that would establish a medical marijuana program for individuals with a debilitating medical condition.
- New Jersey voters will decide the Marijuana Legalization Amendment which would, if passed, legalize the possession and use of marijuana for persons age 21 and older and legalize the cultivation, processing, and sale of retail marijuana.
- South Dakota voters will decide Constitutional Amendment A and Initiated Measure 26. Constitutional Amendment A would legalize the recreational use of marijuana and require the South Dakota State Legislature to pass laws providing for the use of medical marijuana and the sale of hemp by April 1, 2022. Initiated Measure 26 would establish a medical marijuana program in South Dakota for individuals with a debilitating medical condition.
Eight other states have potential measures legalizing medical and/or recreational marijuana that might appear on their respective statewide ballots this year.
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#BallotTrivia
What percentage of state legislative incumbents who faced a primary challenger in 2018 lost in the primary election?
In Thursday’s Brew, we published results from the state legislative primaries that occurred in the four Super Tuesday states—Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas. With the outcome of 17 races not yet determined, 76 incumbents (75%) advanced to the general election, six (6%) advanced to runoffs, and three (3%) were defeated.
In 2018, 6,073 state legislative seats were up for election, which represents about 82% of all state legislative offices in the United States. In those districts, 4,952—82%—of incumbents ran for re-election. Of the 4,952 incumbent state legislators seeking re-election in 2018, 1,054, or 21.3%, faced a primary challenger.
What percentage of state legislative incumbents who faced a primary challenger in 2018 lost in the primary election?
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