There are over 150,000 absentee and provisional ballots in the city of San Diego that have yet to be counted in the Mayor’s race.
 
Why does this matter?
 
Our campaign anticipated a strong showing by Scott Sherman in the early-returned absentee ballots and the Election Day poll voters, because they included a disproportionate number of Republicans.  As you know, Sherman’s campaign consisted almost entirely of showcasing his endorsement by the San Diego County Republican Party to registered Republican voters.
 
The problem for Sherman, who enjoys a narrow 3,063 lead over Barbara, is that the remaining absentee ballots are disproportionately Democratic.  This is true not just in San Diego, but throughout the state of California, in part because many Democrats delayed returning their absentee ballots to ensure they were able to make an informed choice in the Democratic presidential primary.
 
We won’t know how big a difference this will make in the final results until later this week, when these late-arriving absentee ballots begin to be counted, but suggestions that the outcome has already been decided are extremely premature – the modern equivalent of the Chicago Daily Tribune headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” in 1948.
 
Stay tuned for updates and get ready for the November run-off!

Tom Shepard
Consultant, Barbara Bry for Mayor