Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, United States President Joe Biden, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit on March 13, 2023, in San Diego, California. (Leon Neal via Getty Images)

Facing concerns that Australia is not pulling its weight in the landmark AUKUS agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had some explaining to do in his meetings with President Joe Biden this week.

In Foreign Policy, Hudson Senior Fellow John Lee explains what Canberra needs to do to revive the agreement—and what’s at stake if the pact fails.

Key Insights

1. If the three countries do not move forward with their pact, it will mean more than Australia’s failure to acquire US-designed submarines.

AUKUS is a major strategic component of any US-led pushback against China in the Indo-Pacific. If the arrangement makes no meaningful impact on altering the regional military balance of power, then the three allies, along with many other countries, will lose faith in the promise that a reinvigorated United States can lead the check on Chinese power.

2. Waiting for the US to reform its International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export control regime cannot be Australia’s excuse for acting so slowly.

AUKUS will fail if the US Congress does not reform its export control regime to allow a blanket exemption to ITAR for Australia and Britain. But Australia is not without agency as to whether this plays out. Indeed, the onus is on Canberra to persuade skeptical Washington lawmakers that Australia, which pushed for AUKUS in the first place, is deserving of an exception. This means Albanese has some explaining to do on this visit. His government has declared that China’s rise and assertiveness confront Australia with the most difficult strategic circumstances since it fought Japan in World War II, but Australian defense spending will barely rise this year, if at all.

3. AUKUS needs to overcome the free-rider problem.

Many of Washington’s allies claim they are all-in with the United States. But they also know that the less capable and less prepared their militaries are, the less Washington might expect from them. AUKUS will fail without wholehearted Australian commitment, on which Biden should press Albanese this week. Albanese needs to spend more money on developing and deploying the weapons Australia needs, make that decision quickly, and offer a clearer picture of Canberra’s commitment in various contingencies that might arise. He needs to reassure the administration and doubters in Congress that he is serious about righting AUKUS and that the United States and Britain were justified in taking a huge punt on Australia.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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