From Critical State <[email protected]>
Subject Reconsider the Hammer
Date October 25, 2023 6:26 PM
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Read about “Noctalgia” or “sky grief.” Received this from a friend? SUBSCRIBE [[link removed]] CRITICAL STATE Your weekly foreign policy fix. If you read just one thing …

… read about a democratic triumph in Poland.

Elections are the test of a democracy, not just in its composition but in the willingness of a ruling party to accept defeat and allow a new government to come into place. Ever since winning power in Poland in 2015, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) has represented an anti-democratic lurch in the country, attacking the power and autonomy of the judiciary, turning state media into a propaganda outlet, and backing draconian restrictions on abortion. The PiS paired these reactionary sticks with social welfare carrots, including child subsidies and pensions, designed to let the party hold onto power. In 2019, it worked, expanding its hold in Parliament. But this year, Poland’s democratic opposition scored a resounding victory. “Close to 70% of the youngest cohort of voters, 18-29 year olds, turned out to vote this week and overwhelmingly voted for the democratic opposition,” writes Anna Grzymala-Busse at Good Authority [[link removed]]. “For them, the PiS abortion restrictions, corruption, climate change denial, and homophobia all became too much. Polish democracy, in the eyes of many of its citizens, was saved by the united efforts of older parties, middle-aged politicians, and determined young voters.” Victory for the forces of democracy opens the possibility that things will get better. It comes down to the specific coalition to deliver on that promise.

Beyond Warlords

Every attempt to describe the current horror unfolding in Gaza involves a conscious choice of when, exactly, to start the recounting of recent events, separate from the preceding context, separate from the long-standing tensions and history. This one is no different: Hamas’ deadly attack on Oct. 7, 2023 is the event around which the present reaction must be understood, but that doesn’t mean observers must simply resign themselves to history falling into established patterns. Writing originally at Local Call, with an English version published by +972 Magazine [[link removed]], Orly Noy calls for a break from the history of militaristic responses creating cyclical violence.

“I insist on saying that Israel’s current logic of action is exactly the same logic that has been leading all of us, Palestinians and Israelis, to wallow in blood for years. Therefore my first answer to the question, ‘So what should be done now?’ is: no more of the same,” writes Noy. “We must give up this addictive behavior, which has convinced us that the next dose of the drug will be the one that will fix things forever.”

Noy’s full call starts from the assumption “that all human lives are of equal value,” and that “a ground invasion of Gaza could lead to a disaster that would dwarf the one we’re already experiencing.” Operating within those truths, she outlines a plan that starts with a ceasefire, continues with an exchange of hostages held by Israel and Hamas alike, and an end to the permanent Israeli siege of Gaza. This plan is a comprehensive rethink: It includes an end to Israel’s settlements in the West Bank, a call for genuine and free elections in Palestine, and democratic protections for citizens in Israel who protest against the war. Noy ends the letter defiantly, stating that her approach will go unheard and be branded a white flag of surrender. It offers, holistically, an alternative perspective for changed policy in light of the horrors of Oct. 7 and the retaliation bombings ever since.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] River Ally

Treaties are always and forever documents of their times, designed to guide future relations between signatories but bound by obliviousness to the full course of future events. When it comes to treaties over water, that future course is one of shifted, and often lessened, flows as the warming world makes once reliable resources scarce. The Indus Water Treaty, signed by India and Pakistan and mediated by the World Bank in 1960, is straining under tensions, both diplomatic and material, as projections show a growing water deficit.

“Currently, there is minimal dialogue or data sharing between the two countries on the IWT [Indus Water Treaty]. India and Pakistan should compile an annual detailed report on the evaluation of the river basin’s hydrological reactions to changing climate. The data could examine how climate change, land use change, and human activities reduce flow magnitudes in numerical terms,” writes Smiti Mathur at The Diplomat [[link removed]].

Cooperation on water could follow the model of 2013’s Senegal River Basin Multi-Purpose Water Resources Development Project, Mathur suggests. Smoothing over tensions through regular diplomatic engagement, as well as monitoring and cooperation, could allow the neighboring nations to ensure that the Indus is able to meet present needs and sustain life well into the future.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] DEEP DIVE Imagine The War Home: Part I

Terrorism is violence defined by spectacle, intended to serve political aims. The specific ideologies behind terror attacks vary wildly, a distinction that matters not just in how a group or individual decides to attempt a terror attack but also in how societies receive the attacks. One of the more enduring features of response to terror attacks in the 21st century is how a society’s discourse, shaped by elites in political parties and media, chooses to treat terrorists on a case-by-case basis. Is the person who drove a car into a crowd following an ideology deemed alien and seen as someone whose radicalization was imported from abroad as a nefarious scheme to shatter democracy? Or is the ideology simply the act of a lone wolf following national sympathies to an unfortunate conclusion, even if the discourse broadly agrees with their motive while condemning their means?

In “ How terrorist attacks distort public debates: a comparative study of right-wing and Islamist extremism [[link removed]],” Teresa Völker compares the reaction in discourse in Germany to incidents of both Islamist and far-right terrorism, looking at seven fatal incidents that have transpired since 2015.

“The ideological motive for the terrorist attacks influenced the political interpretation of the events and public framing of the central security threat: after Islamist attacks, the majority of statements referred to Muslims as a broad outgroup and migration as the central security threat. In contrast, after extreme right attacks, the majority of statements referred to right-wing extremists as a narrow outgroup and reduced the central security threat to isolated fringe actors,” finds Völker.

While far-right and Islamist terrorists diverge ideologically, both are acts targeted to some degree at replacing the existing democratic government structure with a different set of received laws. Yet, the disparity between coverage and response, even in the narrow subset of incidents where the terrorists were successful in killing people, illustrates the divergent ways elites within Germany were able to set the tone and bounds of national conversation after an attack.

“After Islamist and extreme right attacks, right-wing parties were the more successful crisis communicators, although extreme right attacks would have provided opportunities for left-wing parties to criticize extreme right ideologies. This confirms previous research findings that right-wing actors are successful issue entrepreneurs in moments of crisis,” writes Völker.

On immigration in particular, far-right parties were able to effectively argue that Islamist terror justified deportations and immigration restrictions and that far-right violence should also be met by cracking down on immigration. In both cases, the far-right is able to spin immigration as the threat vector, supposedly bringing in a foreign violent actor while portraying nationalist violence against immigrants as a consequence not of nationalism but immigration.

Crucial to the shaping of these debates is the exclusion of the perspectives of victims, especially victims of far-right terror. Muslims residing within Germany were both targeted for violence by the far-right and scapegoated as potential threats following Islamist attacks. Victims of attacks, writes Völker, “such as ethnic and religious minorities rarely gained any discursive space to share their perspective and influence public perception.”

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FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] RECEIPTS

Gerry Hadden listened [[link removed]] to dinosaur-inspired music made from moose bone and cello string. The instrument, created by composer Anže Rozman, is called the “raptor violin,” and was invented in collaboration with his partner Kara Talve to make sounds for BBC’s “Prehistoric Planet.” Backed by the BBC National Orchestra of Wales, the pair used other unconventional instruments, like the triceratone. “The body of the triceratone is a life-size model skull of a Triceratops. The player strikes its horns with a bow to get the percussive sound. Talve sketched out the instrument, and [legendary film composer Hans] Zimmer’s master builder created it,” writes Hadden.

Kelsey P. Norman and Nicholas R. Micinski examined [[link removed]] the complicated relationship between Egypt and Palestinians, especially those in the Gaza Strip. Egypt’s willingness, and more importantly its lack thereof, to allow Palestinians to cross its border as Israel bombards Gaza and forces an evacuation of half the strip is confounding international efforts that counted on Egypt as a release valve for at least some of the population. “In recent years, Egypt has shown an increased willingness to engage in ‘refugee renterism,’ by leveraging refugees to extract foreign aid,” write Norman and Micinski. While such a play may secure aid for Egypt, it will do little to alleviate suffering.

Hanna Hett reported [[link removed]] on how microfinance loans have plunged the poor of Cambodia deeper into debt. Originally overseen by nongovernmental organizations, and with restrictions on how they could work, the loans were designed to be a tool to alleviate people out of poverty but instead they have made Cambodians go deeper into debt. Research shows that to pay off their debt, Cambodians have taken on additional loans, are eating less, migrating for work, and even pulling their children out of school. Nithya Natarajan, a lecturer at King’s College London, told Hett, “Those checks and balances were largely eroded because the commercial push meant that the emphasis was more on expanding the market, trying to reach new consumers all the time. So, it went to more poor and more precarious households.”

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] WELL-PLAYED

Talk about a Bird Colonel [[link removed]].

Nothing to worry about here, just a robot goat with a rocket launcher strapped to its back [[link removed]].

Skip ahead to the 3-minute mark [[link removed]] to see an Atomic Cannon while West Germans [[link removed]] excitedly proclaim its power.

South by Shining Path [[link removed]].

Grab your reaction gifs and your nostalgia for the pre-Trump era, and come hang out with the intelligence community’s still-functioning Tumblr [[link removed]].

Take 5 and check out Dave Brubek’s midcentury modern masterpiece [[link removed]] of a house.

I don’t have a punchline for this one, I just thought it was a hauntingly beautiful meditation [[link removed]] on videogames, morality, and the afterlives we’d imagine for those we love.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] Follow The World: DONATE TO THE WORLD [[link removed]] Follow Inkstick: DONATE TO INKSTICK [[link removed]]

Critical State is written by Kelsey D. Atherton with Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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