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Welcome to the Thursday, March 5, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Filing deadline roundup
- Super Tuesday states see fewer state legislative challengers than recent years
- Local Roundup
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Filing deadline roundup
Take a deep breath. Filing deadline season is upon us. In the next week, candidate filing deadlines will pass in Georgia (Friday, March 6), Montana (Monday, March 9), and New Mexico and Oregon (Tuesday, March 10). Filing periods end in three more states (Idaho, Iowa, and Nevada) next Friday, March 13.
Voters in these states will elect 40 members of Congress—seven U.S. Senate members and 33 U.S. House members. Five of those Congressional seats are open races: one in the Senate and four in the House.
Thus far, Ballotpedia has identified the U.S. Senate elections in Montana, New Mexico, Iowa, and Georgia; and nine of the U.S. House elections in these states as battleground races. Battlegrounds are elections that Ballotpedia expects to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive or compelling.
Offices on the ballot in states with filing deadlines through March 10 include:
Georgia (Republican trifecta)
- Two U.S. Senate seats
- 14 U.S. House seats
- Two seats on the Public Service Commission
- All 56 seats in the state Senate
- All 180 seats in state House
- Three state Supreme Court seats
Montana (Divided government)
- One U.S. Senate seat
- One U.S. House seat
- Governor
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- All 100 state House seats
- Two state Supreme Court seats
New Mexico (Democratic trifecta)
- One U.S. Senate seat
- Three U.S. House seats
- Two seats on the Public Regulation Commission
- All 42 state Senate seats
- All 70 state House seats
- Three state Supreme Court seats
Oregon (Democratic trifecta)
- One U.S. Senate seat
- Five U.S. House seats
- Secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general
- 15 of 30 state Senate seats
- All 60 state House seats
- Three state Supreme Court seats
Do you want a handy chart to download that has all the candidate filing deadlines and primary dates in one place? We have that for you. Click here to download an image of that list, or click here for our 2020 electronic election cycle calendar. Best of all - they’re free!
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Super Tuesday states see fewer state legislative challengers than recent years
There were primaries for 248 state legislative seats featuring two or more candidates on Super Tuesday in four states—Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas. Eighty-six state legislative chambers in 44 states are holding elections in 2020.
Results from 17 California races involving incumbents are pending due to outstanding mail-in ballots. Additionally, one primary in Arkansas is too close to call. Here are three facts about Tuesday’s state legislative primaries:
- In the four Super Tuesday states holding state legislative primaries, 100 incumbent legislators faced primary challengers.
- In 2018, 130 legislators in these states faced primary challenges. In 2016, that number was 110.
- California holds top-two primaries in which every candidate for a particular office participates in the same primary and the top two finishers, regardless of partisan affiliation, advance to the general election. For the purposes of this study, we defined a primary as contested if more than two candidates filed.
- With the results of 19 races too close to call as of this writing, 73 incumbents (73%) advanced to the general election, five (5%) advanced to runoffs, and three (3%) were defeated.
- In 2018, 78 incumbents (81%) advanced directly to the general election, two (2%) advanced to runoffs, and 16 (17%) were defeated outright. In 2016, 76 incumbents (87%) advanced to the general election, three (3%) advanced to runoffs, and eight (9%) were defeated outright.
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- Compared to the average rates at which incumbents were defeated in 2016 and 2018, there was little change in California or among Arkansas Republicans. However, no Arkansas Democrats were defeated in Tuesday’s primaries, down from an average of 14% over the past two cycles.
- In North Carolina, the average rate at which incumbents were defeated decreased from 17% for Democrats and 13% for Republicans to 8% for both parties.
- No incumbents were defeated in the Texas state legislative primaries: a decrease from an average defeat rate of 14% for Democrats and 10% for Republicans over the past two cycles.
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- Compared to the average in 2016 and 2018, primary challenges among Republicans in North Carolina and Texas decreased by approximately 50% (48% in North Carolina and 63%) in Texas.
- However, primary challenges among Democrats in California and Texas increased by approximately 25% (21% in California and 33% in Texas).
- Primary challengers in Arkansas, as well as those for California Republicans and North Carolina Democrats, did not substantially increase or decrease.
- Thirty-six incumbent state legislators ran in contested primaries in California this year. This compares to 34 incumbents who ran in contested primaries in 2018 and 23 in 2016. In the previous two cycles, all incumbents who ran in contested state legislative primaries in California advanced to the general election.
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Local Roundup
Our Elections team is still crunching the numbers for all of the races held on Tuesday. We covered election events in five states for 700 local offices, including seven mayors, 216 judges, and 477 others such as city council member, county commissioner, sheriff, and district attorney.
Here are a few local ballot measure results of note from Tuesday:
Los Angeles County voters approved Measure R, 70% to 30% according to unofficial election night results. Measure R tasks the Sheriff Civilian Oversight Commission with developing a plan designed to reduce the jail population and re-incarceration rates. It also grants the Commission subpoena power to investigate complaints made against the department.
San Francisco voters approved Proposition E, the City Office Development Limit Initiative, 55% to 45%. It limits city office development if the city does not meet annual housing production goals. The allowed office development will be reduced by the percentage of housing units by which the city falls short of goals. The measure also sets the minimum housing production goal in the city at 2,042 units. San Francisco voters approved three other measures Tuesday, and a fourth, Proposition D, is too close to call.
Voters in Oklahoma City rejected a proposed 0.125% sales tax to fund city parks, 53% to 47%. The measure was put on the ballot through a citizen initiative petition drive. It would have increased the total sales tax rate in the city from 8.625% to 8.75%. City officials estimated that the proposed 0.125% tax would have raised $15 million per year in revenue. Voters approved a 1% sales tax measure in December 2019 to fund the city's Metropolitan Area Projects (MAPs 4) plan.
In Tulsa County, Oklahoma, voters approved a measure authorizing the sale of alcohol on Sundays. According to election night results, 73% of voters were in favor of the measure. A state law allowing alcohol sales on Sunday in a county if voters approve via a ballot proposition—such as this one—went into effect in the state in October 2018.
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
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