The Latest from the Prospect
 â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â
Â
View this email in your browser
**OCTOBER 20, 2023**
On the Prospect website
* Harold Meyerson: Biden makes the case for U.S. support of Israel
and
Ukraine
* Gershom Gorenberg: How the West Bank settlements led to Gaza
* Jarod Facundo: Can the IRS displace the tax prep industry
?
* Gabrielle Gurley: The debate over casinos
in Virginia
Kuttner on TAP
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
**** Friday Roundup
Biden, the Fed, and the House
Biden and the Risk of Quagmire. The press has praised the whirlwind
mission to Israel as Biden at his most presidential, showing the need
for American leadership in the world, offering Israel both solace and
counsel of restraint, as well as compassion for Palestinians. He
displayed his own prowess and stamina; and he demonstrated a salutary
contrast with the Republicans.
What Biden did was virtuous. But operationally, we have no idea what
happens next, nor does Biden. A trip expressing solidarity with both
Israel and the suffering Palestinian people was the easy part.
Will the Israeli army occupy Gaza? My sources say an invasion has been
delayed but will go forward. Israel has no chance of eliminating Hamas
without massive and gruesome casualties among both army occupiers and
Gazan civilians. What of the Israeli hostages?
The U.S. is more engaged than ever, but the path back to a two-state
solution is arduous and improbable. First, Bibi needs to go. How does
that come about?
In last night's speech calling for massive new military aid, Biden
pledged that no American would be sent to fight in Israel or Ukraine. As
the U.S. gets pulled deeper into both conflicts, maybe Biden can even
keep that pledge.
But a prime destroyer of American presidencies and the credibility of
America's influence in the world has been prolonged military
quagmires. Exhibit A is Vietnam, and Exhibit B is Iraq. Yes, it's
worse when American troops are getting killed. But a quagmire by proxy
can be almost as bad for a president. Both the Mideast and Ukraine show
every sign of becoming quagmires by proxy.
In reasserting an expansive conception of Pax Americana, Biden has
assumed responsibility for resolving two of the world's more fraught
conflicts. There is near-consensus among foreign-policy experts that the
Russia-Ukraine war only ends with a deal where the EU or NATO guarantees
Ukraine's security and in return Ukraine cedes the roughly 20 percent
of its territory that is majority Russian-speaking and that Putin
already holds. Biden can't embrace that deal publicly, but his fervor
in support of Ukrainian victory suggests that he doesn't believe in it
privately. Permanent warfare is good for neither Israel, Palestine,
Ukraine-nor Biden.
The Fed: Relenting but Unrepenting. Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a major
speech yesterday signaling that the Fed was ready to stop raising rates.
He quietly ditched his long-term benchmark of 2 percent inflation, which
was unattainable without a Fed-induced deep recession.
But current high interest rates, which the Fed shows no sign of cutting,
are a blunt policy instrument that affects different sectors
differently. Very costly home mortgages are killing housing, at a time
when the nation suffers from a massive housing shortage.
One thing Powell has mastered, if not monetary policy, is the Delphic
art of Fed-speak, allowing opposite interpretations. The
**Wall Street Journal** headline
:
"Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause" The New York
Times
:
"Strong Economic Data 'Could Warrant' Higher Rates, Fed Chair Says."
The House: Inevitable Bipartisanship. With the Republicans continuing to
destroy each other, we will likely get de facto bipartisanship via
Patrick McHenry as provisional Speaker, elected by a majority of
Democrats plus maybe 50 Republicans. Or we may get an even more explicit
bipartisanship with Democrats selecting a more moderate Republican
Speaker backed by perhaps ten Republicans.
I'm betting on McHenry as temporary Speaker and then to ascend to full
Speaker. As the French aptly put it, "C'est le provisoire qui dure."
That's why Jim Jordan is so opposed to the idea.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to
subscribe.Â
Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter
[link removed]
Biden Makes the Case
Not only for Israel and Ukraine, but also, indirectly and effectively,
against Trump and the Republican clown show. BY HAROLD MEYERSON
How West Bank Settlements Led to the Conflict in Gaza
Having to defend them clearly imperils Israeli security. BY GERSHOM
GORENBERG
Can the IRS Beat the Tax Prep Industry at Its Own Game?
The free Direct File program is being tested in 13 states this tax
season. BY JAROD FACUNDO
Richmond Bets Against the House
A second casino vote in Virginia's capital city is under way. BY
GABRIELLE GURLEY
Â
[link removed]
Click to Share this Newsletter
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
Â
[link removed]
YOUR TAX DEDUCTIBLE DONATION SUPPORTS INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM
The American Prospect, Inc., 1225 I Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC xxxxxx, United States
Copyright (c) 2023 The American Prospect. All rights reserved.
To opt out of American Prospect membership messaging, click here
.
To manage your newsletter preferences, click here
.
To unsubscribe from all American Prospect emails, including newsletters,
click here
.
