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The Republican vs Democrat dichotomy is deeply entrenched, and seen as something that is insurmountable by everyone who spectates American politics. And while that may be true, people often dismiss candidates outside of this match up. But one doesn't have to look far to see that one can not completely dismiss third party alternatives, because they can actually tip the balance of an election in razor thin margin states.
Take for example, Georgia. Joe Biden won Georgia in the 2020 election by 0.23% or 11,779 votes. In that same election, Jo Jorgensen of the libertarian party won 1.2% or 62,229 votes. If even 20% or 12,445 of the people who voted for Jo Jorgensen voted for Trump instead, Trump would've won Georgia. Take, also, Arizona. Biden edged out a victory with just 0.3% or 10,000 votes. Meanwhile, in the same state, Jo Jorgensen of the libertarian party secured 1.52% or 51,465 votes. Had a fifth of Jo Jorgensen's vote gone to Trump, Trump would've won Arizona. A trend seems to be emerging. Again, turn your attention to Wisconsin: Biden again scrapes by with 0.63% or 20,000 votes. Jo Jorgensen was able to secure 1.2% or 38,491 of the vote. If a little bit more than half of those voters voted for Trump instead, Wisconsin would've went for Trump. And if those 3 states had gone for Trump, it would've lead to a contingent election, where Trump would've won. You see the problem now?
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With all that being said, I'd like to redirect your attention to this national poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist.
Their report states that Biden (49%) and Trump (46%) are well-matched among registered voters nationally in a hypothetical 2024 contest. Partisan allegiances are strong. Among independents, though, Trump (49%) is ahead of Biden (43%) by 6 percentage points. However, in a three-way contest with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent, Biden opens up a 7-point lead over Trump. 44% of registered voters support Biden. 37% back Trump, and 16% are for Kennedy. Kennedy’s presence in the contest makes the race competitive among independents who break 34% for Trump, 33% for Biden, and 29% for Kennedy. With Kennedy in the race, Biden’s support dips 5 percentage points among Democrats while Trump loses 10 points among Republicans. According to a poll from gallup, 46% of voters identify as independent.
RFK is very popular among independents for someone outside of the Republican or Democrat party. Among independents, he is just 4 points behind Biden and 5 behind Trump. And people from both parties like him, but he is more popular among Republicans than Democrats. In a hypothetical 2024 general election, RFK would siphon twice as many votes from Trump than Biden. This is really bad news for Trump. Especially if the 2024 election is nearly as close as the 2020 election was. And the Republican party agrees.
According to the Washington Post, The Republican National Committee greeted his announcement with a press release that described Kennedy as “just another radical, far-left Democrat,” with a number of talking points that could be used by the expansive network of conservative commentators who tend to take messaging cues from the party. “Make no mistake — a Democrat in Independent’s clothing is still a Democrat. RFK Jr. cannot hide from his record of endorsing Hillary, supporting the Green New Deal, fighting against the Keystone Pipeline, and praising AOC’s tax hikes — he is your typical elitist liberal and voters won’t be fooled,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. And even Democrats ackowledge this, as well: “If he hurts anyone it will be Trump and people on the right,” said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. But she added: “Does he get on the ballot in the states that matter that are going to decide the election?” If RFK Jr. can secure a spot on the ballots this upcoming general election, it can spell disaster for the GOP.
This RFK Jr. is looking like a real issue. For Republicans in particular. One of the best investments that the GOP could do right now is to attack RFK and make sure he's not able to make it on to the general election debates and the ballot. According to a poll from Reuters, RFK Jr. could draw the support of about one in seven US voters. Independent presidential candidates must request to be placed on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and many states require an extensive signature-gathering operation to qualify. It's looking like RFK Jr. will prove to be a real headache for the presumptive GOP nominee, Trump. Especially if he qualifies to make it on to the ballot. Time will tell.
BREAKING: US Warship intercepts missiles
This afternoon, a US Navy warship operating in the Red Sea intercepted two to three missiles and drones that were presumed to be headed to Israel, Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed according to CNN. Ryder says that the Pentagon cannot be absolutely certain whether the missiles and drones were headed for the US Navy warship or Israel. Ryder also confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen were responsible for the attempted attacks.
For context, the Houthis were founded as a peaceful religious movement. But as the movement evolved, they grew to become more violent and engaged in hostilities with the Yemeni government. Because of the conflicts between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, they naturally came to align with the Iranian government. Although they deny their relationship, Iran and Houthis have formed an alliance against the Saudi-American influence on the Arabian peninsula. As a result, the Houthi movement has been able to acquire powerful weapons and technology, most notably ballistic missiles and drone technologies, as shown by the UN, US Navy, and the UK.
And this aggression towards Americans in the Middle East this week is not an isolated incident. The Wall Street Journal reports that yesterday, Wednesday, drones attacked a US base near the Syrian-Jordan border. That same day, a US base in Iraq also came under a drone attack, where one American died from a cardiac arrest while trying to take shelter.
Meanwhile at the Israeli-Lebanese border, skirmishes persist consistently throughout the week. The Washington Post reports that Hezbollah and Israeli have exchanged fire multiple times since the incursion of Hamas into Israel on October 7th. Hezbollah says that eight of its fighters have been killed in Israeli strikes. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) says at least five Israelis have been killed, including three soldiers in a shootout with a Hezbollah gunman who infiltrated the area. To help maintain the peace, the US dispatched warships to the Middle East last week, hoping the show of force would deter the Hezbollah and Iranian allies from launching a full-scale attack.
After the events of this last week and today, one immediately comes to remember what the Iranian foreign minister said this Monday. “The possibility of preemptive action by the resistance axis is expected in the coming hours,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a live broadcast to state TV, as he referred to his meeting with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday. Given what he's said and his additional comments of actions that will be done by the "axis of resistance", we can expect events of this nature to not only continue happening, but also increase as the Gaza invasion starts.
The axis of resistance is a coalition of states and non-state actors in the Middle East that oppose American and Israeli interests in the region. It consists of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces) of Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. The axis of resistance is expected to become more active when Israel begins the invasion of the Gaza strip.
The Israeli Minister of Economy Nir Barkat told ABC News that the IDF has the "green light" to begin the offensive into the Gaza strip. "We shall do all efforts to bring our hostages, to bring our hostages [back] alive,” he insisted while acknowledging that the “first and last priority” is destroying Hamas. The IDF is intent on decimating the terrorist group “even if it takes a year,” Barkat explained.
So what should we expect? What is likely to occur is that sometime in the next week, the invasion of the Gaza strip will commence, and anti-American activity in the Middle East will continue and intensify. Because of the nature of the Gaza strip, with it being a small piece of land, densely populated, this invasion will take several months, perhaps a year even. Over the course of this duration, the Middle East will destabilize and we can expect more activity from the "axis of resistance;" What we can hope for is a quick resolution to this war, to minimize the loss of life of not just the Arabs and Israelis in the region, but also Americans.
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