Hi there, 

We’re less than 3 weeks away from Election Day, and the Virginia legislative elections are shaping up to be some of the most consequential of the year. We shared a high level analysis of where we’re at with some of our Virginia friends yesterday, but these races are so important that we wanted to share it with you too. 

Here’s the 3 sentence version:  It’s going to be really tight.  Republicans are spending big. This election could reshape the abortion fight not just in Virginia, but across the nation. 

Chip in to battleground races in Virginia here and sign up for more emails like the one below here.  

When we launched this newsletter, almost nobody was talking about Virginia. 

But we were hearing a pretty clear message from partners in the state—it’s time to pay attention, or face the consequences of our neglect in November. And what’s more, these partners reminded us, Virginia is a key indicator of the national mood heading into the presidential cycle. So we launched a little newsletter to share learnings and insights from Virginia and help turn national energy, volunteers, and dollars to the commonwealth. 

With just 3 weeks to go till Election Day, we wanted to take a step back and look at the state of the race. What’s changed since Labor Day, and what’s left to accomplish? 

Money

Let’s get down to the brass tax. In September, the alarm bells were ringing: Republicans were bringing in massive amounts of money and we needed to keep up. 

Now… There’s good news and bad news. The good news is that Democrats have made serious investments. The bad news is that Republicans have too.  

In the opening days of October, Glenn Youngkin hauled in another $4.4 million to his PAC, all from conservative billionaires. On October 10th, he announced a $1.4 million ad buy attacking Democrats on abortion. 

But let’s take an even more granular look at the districts where we believe money is most critical to decide the majority in both chambers: SDs 24, 27, and 31 and HDs 21, 65, 82, 84, and 97. 

All eight districts are among the top 11 most expensive districts in terms of ad spending.  In two of three Senate races, the Republican campaign leads the Democrat in ad spending. In the House, the Republican have higher ad spending in 3 of 5 races. Spending by independent groups is similarly a mixed bag. 

According to VPAP, all eight Democratic candidates haven’t yet spent money on ads for the final 2 weeks of the campaign, while many of their Republican opponents have. 

So here’s the bottom line: this is going to be incredibly close, and money really can make the difference. Consider chipping in to these 8 candidates today.

Messaging

If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you probably won’t be surprised to see 3 themes across much of the coverage of Virginia’s legislative elections: suburban voters, abortion access, and a whole lot of pondering about what the results in November can tell us about voters’ moods ahead of 2024. 

All three of these themes are wrapped up in a growing conversation about Virginia Republicans’ strategy on abortion, how it will play in the competitive districts, and what GOP politicians nationwide might learn going forward. 

This Atlantic article is a great read on the subject, but here’s the gist: Ever since the Dobbs decision last June, voters have turned out to protect abortion rights. The pro-choice side has won every single abortion-related ballot measure. Overwhelming support for abortion rights blunted the red wave last November. Democrats have been on offense on this issue, and it’s paid off. Wary of another smackdown from pro-choice voters, Virginia Republicans, led by Glenn Youngkin, are coalescing around what they call a “consensus” ban or a moderate ban. 

But here’s the thing: There’s no such thing as a moderate abortion ban. What’s more, only 17% of Virginians say abortion laws should become more strict. The Youngkin proposal isn’t a consensus at all, but his lies about Democrats’ position on the issue could still pay off this November. It wouldn’t be the first time that disinformation and the conservative media ecosystem were effective at misleading voters, which makes it all the more important that progressives are getting our message out. 

If this gambit works, we can expect Republicans across the country to go on offense on abortion, lying not only about Democrats’ positions but also about the impacts of their own proposals. 

So yeah, the media coverage is right: these races have big ol’ consequences for 2024.