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China’s banks may be loaded up with hidden bad loans - The Economist   

When jinzhou bank, in north-eastern China, showed signs of distress at the start of the year, state media suggested that a billionaire named Li Hejun might be behind its problems. Mr Li, a solar-panel tycoon, was once China’s richest man. His firm was known to have tight links to the bank. And it was not long after word spread that he had been arrested that Jinzhou Bank suspended trading in its shares and told investors it would restructure its operations.

Oddly, the bank’s finances look to have been in good shape. Its overall bad-debt level was low in the first half of 2022, the last period for which detailed information is available. Although one concerning figure sticks out—more than 50% of its personal-business loans had become non-performing—this type of loan comprised just 1% of its total. Small- and micro-enterprise loans, which make up about half of the bank’s loan book, appeared normal, with only 3% having gone sour.

But is this the whole story? In theory, there is no meaningful distinction between personal-business loans and small- and micro-enterprise loans, says Jason Bedford, a veteran banking analyst. The two types are used in similar ways and should offer similar risk. In practice, though, there is a crucial difference: small- and micro-enterprise loans remain covered by a covid-era moratorium allowing banks to avoid recognising bad debts. Thus it is possible that a large portion of Jinzhou’s lending book is unrecognised bad debt. The bank has said almost nothing about its condition since earlier this year.

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