A contest for second place

Republican candidate Nikki Haley talks with media in the "Spin Room" after the second GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

Photo by David Crane, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE 2024 MONEY RACE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

We are no longer far from the 2024 elections.

Iowa’s Jan. 15 caucuses are now three (!) months away. Three!!

Per The New York Times, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley recently urged donors to “Get in the game” and to do it fast if they want any hope of boosting a candidate who can compete with former President Donald Trump.

We at Here’s the Deal seldom focus on fundraising figures. A candidates’ words, policy differences, campaign approach and voter interactions are usually more telling to us. But, Haley has a point. The fundraising dollars are telling us something right now. Trump is on a different planet than the rest of the GOP field — about 44 points ahead on average by Five Thirty Eight’s calculations.

So let’s look.

Trump v. Republicans

Here is how much each candidate raised for their primary campaign committees in the three months that ended Sept. 30.

Donald Trump: $24.5 million
Ron DeSantis: $11.2 million
Nikki Haley: $8.2 million
Vivek Ramaswamy: $7.4 million
Tim Scott: $4.6 million
Chris Christie: $3.8 million
Doug Burgum: $3.4 million
Mike Pence: $3.4 million
Asa Hutchinson: $667,000

What do these numbers tell us?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing some steam. His $11 million is significant, but it is a plunge from the $20 million raised the previous quarter. And he is still working to get spending under control. While he’s cut bills significantly, DeSantis still spent as much as he took in this quarter.

Haley is gaining steam. Her total is up by some $3 million, after standout performances in two debates.

Former Vice President Pence still faces deep challenges. His hard work is showing: He fundraised more than doubled what he did last quarter, but even so, he is still at the back of the pack. Worse, his campaign is in the red, some $600,000 in debt.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is burning through cash at an incredible rate. His campaign spent above $12 million last quarter, after raising more than $4 million. Scott has some help from a senatorial war chest, but it is still a mismatch to watch. Despite that spending, Scott still has the second-most amount of cash on hand, after Trump. He, DeSantis and Haley all have between $12 and 13 million in the bank.

Looking at that and the rest of the candidates, what we have now is a GOP field that has indeed winnowed. All candidates still have opportunity, especially with in-person events in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But as it stands now, this is a contest for second place. And that contest now seems to be between DeSantis and Haley. Vivek Ramaswamy remains in the hunt, but as he has expanded on-the-ground staffing, he also is spending significantly more than he is getting in donations.

Meanwhile, Trump’s indictments have only fueled more donations for him.

Biden v. Trump

While Trump had a very good third quarter, so did President Joe Biden.

Biden actually edged out Trump in the numbers, bringing in $24.8 million compared with Trump’s $24.5 million.

Biden’s campaign spent more than Trump’s last quarter, but both campaigns are spending millions less than they are bringing in right now. Their bank accounts are getting larger. Trump’s campaign has nearly $38 million in cash. Biden has $32 million.

What does that tell us? The obvious. We should be ready for an intense general election fight. And right now, the fundraising world is betting that it will be a rematch.

More on the Israel-Hamas war from our coverage:

Watch: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens ahead of an anticipated Israeli invasion against Hamas.
One Big Question: There are growing fears of the war expanding beyond Gaza. What diplomatic efforts are taking place to prevent the conflict from widening further?
A Closer Look: What is Hamas? The Council on Foreign Relations explains the history, leaders and funding behind a group best known for its armed resistance to Israel.
Perspectives: The father of the 6-year-old who was murdered in an anti-Muslim hate crime says he wants his son to be an "avenue that solves" the Israel-Hamas conflict.

HOW DO VOTERS FEEL ABOUT BIDEN AND TRUMP?
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, voter support for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump would be statistically tied.

In a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, 49 percent of national registered voters said they would vote for Biden, while another 46 percent said they would cast their ballot for Trump. Attitudes among voters about these two leading presidential candidates have changed little since early October or in August, when this poll last asked Americans who they would support.

Image by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

When the matchup includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist, the independent presidential candidate appears to drain some support from both presidential nominees, but especially Trump. In that three-way question, Biden holds the largest chunk of support among registered voters at 44 percent. At the same time, Trump is favored by 37 percent and RFK Jr. receives 16 percent of registered voters. Independent voters are roughly evenly split among these three candidates.

These latest numbers suggest many potential voters are unhappy with frontrunners from both the Democratic and Republican parties, said Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst at Roll Call and senior editor for Inside Elections. They are “looking for any candidate that has a pulse,” he said. That discontent is particularly pronounced among independents, who Rothenberg said have “grown wearier of the Republicans and Democrats over the last year or two. They see another name -- maybe it's a familiar name -- and they gravitate there.”

The 2024 election is over a year away, and those months could see countless upsets in a crowded field of hopefuls vying for the White House.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kyle Midura, @KyleMidura
Politics Producer

Amid the continued speakership drama, the House gaveled into session at noon Tuesday. After a prayer and the Pledge of Allegiance, the first vote for House speaker was underway.

But Republican Rep. Jim Jordan fell short of seizing the House speaker’s gavel. Twenty Republicans opposed the Ohio Republican.

The vote was broadcast live.

Our question: Who was the first member to give a speech during a live television broadcast of a session of Congress?

Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which House speaker holds the seemingly unbreakable record for the shortest tenure in history, and what were the circumstances?

The answer: Theodore M. Pomeroy. For one day in 1869. The prior speaker, Rep. Schuyler Colfax, R-Ind., resigned to be sworn in as vice president in the incoming administration of President Ulysses S. Grant. When Colfax resigned, the House passed a motion that declared Pomeroy as speaker. Pomeroy left Congress the next day — the term ended the day after he was sworn in — ensuring the shortest tenure of any House speaker in U.S. history.

Congratulations to our winners: Gail Upton and Jim Brydon!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.

Want more news and analysis in your inbox?
Explore all of the PBS NewsHour's newsletters.