It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. 

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YOUR GUIDE TO SUPER TUESDAY
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

The basics are simple: 14 states plus American Samoa will vote on Super Tuesday, with some 1,338 Democratic convention delegates up for grabs.

But the impact is consequential: This year’s Super Tuesday haul is more than a third of all convention delegates, which means results tonight could determine whether any of the remaining candidates can glide to the Democratic nomination -- or if a rocky convention awaits.

Here’s our guide to this extra-Super Tuesday.

Candidate watch

Biden. The former vice president has risen from an abysmal February, when he finished fourth and fifth in key early voting contests to enjoying perhaps the best three days of any 2020 candidate yet. He won South Carolina by a 28-point margin on Saturday and is fresh off a hat trick yesterday, receiving endorsements by three former rivals: Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke. He gained momentum at a time when he needed it.

Watch the results roll in tonight with two key Biden questions in mind:

1. How is Biden doing outside of his key demographic (black southerners)? Can he win with black voters in other states, like California or Massachusetts? Or with non-black voters?

2. Does he clear the 15 percent hurdle in most, or every state? To earn delegates, a candidate must receive at least 15 percent support in any given state. Biden has momentum, but in the end, he must gain delegates to keep moving forward.

Bloomberg. No one has spent more money in a shorter period of time trying to win a presidential nomination. But New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has never actually been on a presidential ballot -- until today. Bloomberg needs to prove he has a strong base of support. Keep a close watch on states where polls have been warm, or at times even giving him a lead: Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas. And where does he end up in the mega-primaries of California and Texas?

Bloomberg ran on the premise that Biden is a weak candidate. But with so many rivals giving a bear hug to Biden yesterday, Bloomberg needs to prove there is a clear reason he is in the race on his own merit.

Sanders. As the man with the most wins (New Hampshire, Nevada and the popular vote in Iowa), Bernie Sanders is both the frontrunner and also the target of the moderate Democratic establishment. Today, he has a chance at big victories in the two biggest states: California and Texas. Watch the margins in those two states. They’ll help establish whether the attention on Biden has cut into how large groups of Democrats see Sanders, and whether they are reconsidering him as the nominee -- or if Biden’s bounce was more of a blip and Sanders will continue racking up delegates by the dozen. These two states, more than any other, may tell us if Sanders can win a majority of delegates without any other candidates dropping out.

Warren. Her task is simple--she has to win or place very high in her home state of Massachusetts and outperform in California (think second place). Any other surprise swells of support would help. Warren argues that Sanders is too liberal and Biden too stale to win the nomination. For all the interest she has generated, she repeatedly falls short in votes. Today may be her final chance to shore up significant support in state contests, even if she chooses to stay in the race until the convention.

Keep an eye on these states

This is the fun part. We have a real diversity of states voting today, on both coasts and -- as Klobuchar might say -- in the middle. Here are some of the best for each time of night.

Virginia (7 p.m. ET)
There may be no other state tonight in which more candidates have felt they have a real shot at a big night. Everyone is a contender in this state and it will be a good test of how a purple swing state (leaning blue) sees these candidates. The commonwealth has rural, urban, conservative, progressive, black, white, military and non-military voters, southerners and transplant Yankees alike. Keep it at the top of your list of what to watch for tonight.

Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET and 8 p.m. ET)
These three states represent key targets for three of the candidates. Biden is hoping for a 20 to 30 point win in Alabama, where 54% of Democratic voters are black. Warren needs a win in her home state of Massachusetts and Bloomberg invested heavily in Oklahoma. But Sanders could do well in all three.

Let us sneak in a word for watching Maine, where Tulsi Gabbard has spent significant time. She has fallen far in the polls, but if there is any place where she may rise again, it is the Pine Tree state.

Texas and Colorado (9 p.m. ET)
The Lone Star state has 228 delegates. (By comparison, New Hampshire has 24). And it is a place Democrats hope to push into the light blue category. One more thing: This is a spot where any Biden momentum could show. If he can get close to Sanders in this state, it would be significant. In Colorado, Democrats will get results from an important population of suburban and small town voters. This group has been split throughout this primary, and may make different choices now that some of their favorite candidates (like Klobuchar and Buttigieg) are out of the race.

California (11 p.m. ET)
The Golden State is a juggernaut, with 415 delegates. It is an electric blue place where 30 percent of Democrats are Hispanic. It could tell us a great deal about whether the Democratic base there is locking in step with Sanders, moving toward Biden, or is stuck in the middle and conflicted. Also, keep an eye on congressional races in this state-- there are some incumbent members of Congress facing real threats, especially from the left.

FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Alex D’Elia, @ ([link removed]) AlexDEliaNews
Politics production assistant

Federal judge rules Cuccinelli appointment unlawful ([link removed]) -- March 1. Ken Cuccinelli’s appointment as acting director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services violated the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, according to a D.C.-based federal judge. Why it matters: Two policies implemented under Cuccinelli’s directorship are now suspended, with the judge finding that Cuccinelli lacked the authority to issue them in the first place.-- POLITICO

Exclusive: U.S. mulls using sweeping powers to ramp up production of coronavirus protective gear ([link removed]) -- Feb. 17. The administration is considering more aggressive tactics, such as expanding domestic manufacturing of protective masks, to curve the novel coronavirus pandemic. Why it matters: With the virus expected to spread through the U.S., HHS Secretary Alex Azar told lawmakers that the U.S. only has a fraction of the stockpile of N95 face masks needed to combat the outbreak.-- Reuters

Education Dept. to cut off federal funding for some rural schools ([link removed]) -- Feb. 28. The Trump administration changed how districts report the number of students in poverty after a review found districts had "erroneously" received funding even though they did not meet eligibility requirements laid out in the federal education law. Why it matters: Hundreds of rural schools stand to lose funding from the two-decade-old Rural and Low-Income School Program. -- The New York Times

Senate Republicans plan first subpoena in Burisma, Biden probe ([link removed]) -- March 2. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., plans to force a vote to subpoena a witness in an investigation into the Ukranian natural gas company Burisma. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, once served on Burisma’s board. Why it matters: The subpoena could be a thorn in Biden’s 2020 campaign at a critical moment in the election cycle. -- The Washington Post

Tim Cook and Apple bet everything on China. Then coronavirus hit. ([link removed]) -- March 2. Apple’s market value has declined by more than $100 billion due to closures in China that were enacted to contain the outbreak, which originated in the city of Wuhan. Why it matters: The loss shows the effect the virus may have on business supply chains. -- The Wall Street Journal

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kate Grumke, @KGrumke ([link removed])
Politics producer

Super Tuesday is actually a relatively new phenomenon in American politics. There are some references to a “super Tuesday” in a few earlier elections, according to The New York Times, but the first official Super Tuesday was likely during the 1984 election.

Our question: How many states held their primaries and caucuses on March 13, 1984?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: On this day in 1870, Hiram Rhodes Revels, the first African American in the U.S. Congress, was sworn in and admitted to the Senate, representing Mississippi. Later that year, the first African American to serve in the House, Joseph Rainey of South Carolina, was sworn in. Today’s Congress has a historic 56 African American members ([link removed]) .

Our question: Who was the first African American woman elected to Congress?

The answer: Shirley Chisholm

Congratulations to our winners: Jeff Bernstein!!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your Inbox next week.

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