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**OCTOBER 16, 2023**
On the Prospect website
* Ryan Cooper: Israel-restraint or occupation?
* David Dayen: California veto overrides?
* Lee Harris: Private equity takes over heat pump
installers
Kuttner on TAP
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**** After the Gaza War
A wider regional conflict or a renewed peace process?
What happens after Israel invades Gaza? And is there any prospect of the
aftermath leading back toward a durable peace process?
The Netanyahu government has no idea what it will do after the invasion.
It does not want a long-term occupation of Gaza. The government hopes to
limit a humanitarian disaster by allowing civilians to leave northern
Gaza, and to wipe out Hamas as a military force. Both of these goals are
wishful, and somewhat inconsistent.
Biden, after several days of expressing unconditional solidarity with
Israel, finally said publicly that he expects Israel to abide by "the
rules of war." Speaking in an interview aired Sunday on CBS's
**60 Minutes**
,
Biden added, "There's standards that democratic institutions and
countries go by. And so I'm confident that there's going to be an
ability for the innocents in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine
and food and water."
Biden also said flatly, "There needs to be a path to a Palestinian
state." If this is what Biden is saying privately, backed by the promise
of more-or the threat of less-military aid, that's progress.
If the Israeli army's military incursion is limited and it can claim
to have severely damaged Hamas's capacity to strike Israel, what then?
For events to break toward peace, three things need to happen.
In Gaza, there needs to be a stabilization and normalization process,
with a great deal of international aid for relief and rebuilding. There
also needs to be a major international initiative to guarantee the
security of both Gaza and of Israel, including limits on Hamas and on
Israeli ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.
Inside Israel, Netanyahu has to be ousted. As soon as the immediate war
subsides, the anti-Netanyahu demonstrations will continue. The broad
Israeli public, which had massively turned against Netanyahu even before
the Hamas massacre, is now doubly enraged at Netanyahu for failing to
keep the country safe.
Netanyahu's assault on the judiciary has been shelved for now, as a
condition of opposition leaders joining his war Cabinet. By the time
things normalize, he could be on trial.
Several Israeli friends point out that this turn of events means that
the peace party-the center-left and the left-is on the verge of its
greatest resurgence in decades, but only if the military situation does
not lead to all-out regional war. Here, Biden as a source of restraint
becomes even more essential.
And finally, there needs to be a restoration of a true peace process,
both for its own sake and to damp down violence. This also requires
Netanyahu's ouster. The convergence of a pro-peace government in
Jerusalem and relative stabilization in Gaza, as well as constraints on
settler provocations, just might jump-start it.
Is this scenario likely? No. Is it possible? Yes. All of the
alternatives are too horrific to contemplate.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
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Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter
[link removed]
Israel Is Making a Terrible Mistake
President Biden warned against Israeli forces occupying the Gaza Strip.
Was it too late? BY RYAN COOPER
The Case of the Missing Veto Override
California legislators haven't voted to reject a gubernatorial veto in
43 years. Gov. Newsom has given them plenty of opportunities to reverse
that trend. BY DAVID DAYEN
Private Equity Intensifies Rollups of HVAC Installers
A report finds that corporate consolidation, an aging workforce, and
high costs could keep heat pumps, a key technology of the Inflation
Reduction Act, out of reach. BY LEE HARRIS
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