Short of 217 votes for Jim Jordan Speaker bid, Republicans risk losing the floor to Democrats

12 days after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was unceremoniously ousted when eight House Republicans led by U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) joined 208 House Democrats in deposing McCarthy on Oct. 3, and House Republicans appear no closer to electing a new Speaker, with the latest nominee, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) short of the votes needed. Jordan won the nomination against U.S. Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), who Jordan defeated with 124 to 81. But when asked if members would support Jordan on the floor, only 152 said yes, with 55 saying no, well short of the 217 votes needed. And now, if Republicans cannot agree on a leader, members are already speaking of creating a coalition government with Democrats. On CBS’ Face The Nation on Oct. 15, U.S. Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), who is supporting Jordan, warned that “if there is a need if the radical, you know, almost just handful of people in the Republican side, make it unable … to be able to return to general work on the House, then I think obviously, there will be a deal [that] will have to be done” in response to a question about whether a deal with Democrats would be done for a “mutually acceptable Speaker.”

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By Robert Romano

12 days after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was unceremoniously ousted when eight House Republicans led by U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) joined 208 House Democrats in deposing McCarthy on Oct. 3, and House Republicans appear no closer to electing a new Speaker, with the latest nominee, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) short of the votes needed.

Jordan lost a House Conference vote in favor of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) last week before Scalise withdrew his name from consideration, leaving Jordan versus U.S. Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), who Jordan defeated with 124 to 81. But when asked if members would support Jordan on the floor, only 152 said yes, with 55 saying no, well short of the 217 votes needed.

And now, if Republicans cannot agree on a leader, members are already speaking of creating a coalition government with Democrats.

On CBS’ Face The Nation on Oct. 15, U.S. Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), who is supporting Jordan, warned that “if there is a need if the radical, you know, almost just handful of people in the Republican side, make it unable … to be able to return to general work on the House, then I think obviously, there will be a deal [that] will have to be done” in response to a question about whether a deal with Democrats would be done for a “mutually acceptable Speaker.”

Under current GOP Conference rules, only a simple majority of the conference is needed to nominate a member, but with party infighting, and no deal to change conference rules to require 217 votes for a nominee, it is unclear if any member would be able to get to 217 votes.

And with two vacancies in the House, the normal threshold of 218 votes drops to 217, and just five House Republican votes would be all that is needed to make a deal with Democrats.

Such was the predictable risk taken by Gaetz and the seven other House Republicans who joined with House Democrats in voting to remove McCarthy in the first place: That no other Republican member would be able to get to 217 votes, forcing House Republicans to consider other options, which include forming a majority with Democrats.

That, even though 54.5 million Americans voted for a Republican majority in Nov. 2022, winning 222 seats, defeating Democrats who got 51.5 million votes and 213 seats.

Turner offered that “I think Jim Jordan will be an excellent Speaker. I think he’ll be able to get to 217,” but that “If not, we have other leaders in the House,” before offering the nuclear option of cutting a deal with Democrats.

Such a debacle — an unprecedented outcome — would effectively disenfranchise 54.5 million voters and give President Joe Biden one-party rule over government once again, with Democrats controlling the House, Senate and White House, something voters explicitly repudiated in 2022.

Long term, a protracted battle over Speaker could make it more difficult to incentivize voting Republican if one’s votes can be nullified by a single member joining with Democrats to vacate the Speaker, effectively holding the House hostage. As the factions harden, so too could the bad blood in the conference depending on the outcome, something that could hamper House Republicans in subsequent election cycles.

On Capitol Hill, even if Republicans do ultimately agree, whoever the next Speaker is will be weaker position, since Senate Democrats and the White House dealing on a spending bill — discretionary government spending runs out on Nov. 17 — will have to question whether that person can even deliver the votes.

Why deliver concessions if House Republicans lack leverage because they cannot even pass anything on their own?

Moreover, if putting bipartisan spending bills on the floor potentially can topple House GOP leadership — with Democrats cobbling the votes for a coalition government in the aftermath — Democrats are being given a perverse incentive and an opportunity to seize power, and not to negotiate in good faith.