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Geopolitics & Recession Fears Dominate the Markets (Weekly Cheat Sheet)
| From | Irving Wilkinson <[email protected]> |
| Subject | Geopolitics & Recession Fears Dominate the Markets (Weekly Cheat Sheet) |
| Date | October 16, 2023 1:55 PM |
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Good morning,
Alright, folks, let’s break down this week’s financial whirlwind with some hard numbers and a sprinkle of analysis.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Israel-Hamas Tensions: A Geopolitical Chess Game
Stock Market: A Game of Highs and Lows
Sector Spotlight: The Winners and Losers
Other Key Events:
In Conclusion
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Earnings Galore!
U.S. Economic Pulse
Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride
Global Glimpses & Noteworthy Nods
BONDS
COMMODITIES
Oil & Energy
Gold & Precious Metals
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Israel-Hamas Tensions: A Geopolitical Chess Game
The week started with Israel declaring war on Hamas after a surprise attack. The global community watched closely, with concerns of a broader regional conflict. By Friday, tensions escalated as Israel warned 1.1 million residents in the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate within 24 hours, hinting at a potential ground assault. Iran’s foreign minister didn’t help ease tensions, suggesting Israel might face repercussions in “other areas.”
Stock Market: A Game of Highs and Lows
Despite geopolitical concerns, the stock market showed some mettle. There were gains, especially with the dip in Treasury yields and some strategic buying. However, as the weekend neared, the market’s confidence seemed to wobble a bit.
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Started the week at 33,407.50 and ended at 33,670.20, marking a change of 262.70 points, which is an increase of 0.8%.
Nasdaq: Began the week at 13,431.30 and closed at 13,407.20, a decrease of 24.10 points or -0.2%.
S&P 500: Opened the week at 4,308.50 and wrapped up at 4,327.78, a rise of 19.28 points or 0.4%.
Russell 2000: Started at 1,745.56 and settled at 1,719.71, declining by 25.85 points or -1.5%.
Sector Spotlight: The Winners and Losers
Of the S&P 500 sectors, eight experienced gains. Energy was the standout, rocketing by 4.5%. Conversely, the consumer discretionary sector faced a setback, declining by 0.7%.
Other Key Events:
Economic Indicators: Decoding the Percentages: The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t bring the cheer investors hoped for. Yet, the 10-yr note seemed to be the week’s favorite, benefiting from safe-haven flows and optimism about future inflation rates. The 2-yr note yield dipped to 5.05%, while the 10-yr note yield experienced a more significant drop to 4.63%.
Fed Hawkish?: Federal representatives believe that the current stringent monetary policy will remain until inflation stabilizes, as indicated in recent records. “Most members felt that a subsequent hike in the benchmark interest rate would probably be fitting in an upcoming session.”
Microsoft Hit With $29B Tax Bill: The IRS claims that Microsoft has a pending tax bill of $29B, stemming from profit distributions across nations from 2004 to 2013. Microsoft plans to challenge this through the IRS’ review process, which might extend for several years.
Mac Sales Down: Recent data from IDC, Gartner, and Canalys reveal that Apple Macbook’s sales dropped by over 23% in the third quarter. While the broader PC market experienced a 7% to 9% dip in shipments, there was a slight uptick compared to the previous quarter.
UAW Strike: The UAW has initiated intensified strikes at Ford’s Kentucky truck facility. This expanded strike involves 8,700 UAW members and affects the production of Ford pickups, Expeditions, and Lincoln Navigators.
Earnings Season: The Corporate Scorecard Big names stepped into the earnings spotlight this week. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and UnitedHealth (UNH) all reported, showcasing generally favorable results.
Capitol Hill Chronicles: A Leadership Quandary The House faced a leadership conundrum this week. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) seemed poised to take the Speaker’s gavel but withdrew after failing to secure enough support. This leadership void adds uncertainty, especially with the budget agreement deadline on November 17 looming large.
In Conclusion
This week was a blend of geopolitical events, market movements, and specific economic numbers painting a vivid picture. As we gear up for the next week, the questions remain: How will the geopolitical landscape evolve? What will the market’s next move be? And can the House find its leader? The clock is ticking.
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Tuesday: Retail Sales (MoM)
Thursday: Existing Home Sales
Thursday: Philly Fed Manufacturing
Fed Talks
Earnings
Middle East Tensions
Earnings Galore!
Tesla Takes the Lead: This week, the spotlight’s on Tesla (TSLA) as it gears up to be the first of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants to unveil its Q3 results on Wednesday.
Banking Biggies: Last week, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) showcased robust quarterly profits, thanks to rising rates. This week, we’re all eyes for:
Bank of America (BAC)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
A slew of regional banks
Consumer Insights: Eager to get a pulse on consumer behavior? Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are set to spill the beans with their earnings reports.
U.S. Economic Pulse
Retail Rundown: Tuesday’s the day for September’s retail sales data. We’re looking at a projected 0.2% uptick, a tad slower than July’s 0.5% and August’s 0.6%.
Housing Health: Reports on building permits, housing starts, and the NAHB Housing Market Index are on the horizon, giving us a peek into the housing sector’s vitality.
Manufacturing Matters: Regional manufacturing activity reports are on the docket, and let’s just say, we’re not expecting fireworks.
Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride
Middle East Meltdown: The escalating tensions between Israel and certain terrorist groups have got the market on its toes.
U.S. Sanctions Stir the Pot: The U.S. threw a curveball last Thursday, slapping sanctions on folks moving Russian oil over the G7’s $60/barrel cap. With Russian and Middle Eastern oil dynamics in flux, we’re in for an interesting few weeks.
Global Glimpses & Noteworthy Nods
China’s Check-in: Come Wednesday, all eyes will be on China’s economic data, especially with the ongoing property sector drama and potential Beijing bailouts.
U.K. Inflation Intel: Prepping for the Bank of England’s November meeting, September’s inflation stats from the U.K. are eagerly awaited.
Fed Chats: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s set to drop some knowledge at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. Plus, we’ve got regional Fed presidents and Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller lined up for some noteworthy speeches this week.
Continue Reading
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson
Editor
AlphaBetaStock.com
Copyright © 2023 ABS Market Research, All rights reserved.
Unsubscribe from this list.
ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report commentary has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this website is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. Focused Specialists, LLC does not guarantee, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained in this website. At no time will ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller, or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and investing decisions. The content of this email may not be altered, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Focused Specialists, LLC.
Alright, folks, let’s break down this week’s financial whirlwind with some hard numbers and a sprinkle of analysis.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Israel-Hamas Tensions: A Geopolitical Chess Game
Stock Market: A Game of Highs and Lows
Sector Spotlight: The Winners and Losers
Other Key Events:
In Conclusion
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Earnings Galore!
U.S. Economic Pulse
Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride
Global Glimpses & Noteworthy Nods
BONDS
COMMODITIES
Oil & Energy
Gold & Precious Metals
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Israel-Hamas Tensions: A Geopolitical Chess Game
The week started with Israel declaring war on Hamas after a surprise attack. The global community watched closely, with concerns of a broader regional conflict. By Friday, tensions escalated as Israel warned 1.1 million residents in the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate within 24 hours, hinting at a potential ground assault. Iran’s foreign minister didn’t help ease tensions, suggesting Israel might face repercussions in “other areas.”
Stock Market: A Game of Highs and Lows
Despite geopolitical concerns, the stock market showed some mettle. There were gains, especially with the dip in Treasury yields and some strategic buying. However, as the weekend neared, the market’s confidence seemed to wobble a bit.
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Started the week at 33,407.50 and ended at 33,670.20, marking a change of 262.70 points, which is an increase of 0.8%.
Nasdaq: Began the week at 13,431.30 and closed at 13,407.20, a decrease of 24.10 points or -0.2%.
S&P 500: Opened the week at 4,308.50 and wrapped up at 4,327.78, a rise of 19.28 points or 0.4%.
Russell 2000: Started at 1,745.56 and settled at 1,719.71, declining by 25.85 points or -1.5%.
Sector Spotlight: The Winners and Losers
Of the S&P 500 sectors, eight experienced gains. Energy was the standout, rocketing by 4.5%. Conversely, the consumer discretionary sector faced a setback, declining by 0.7%.
Other Key Events:
Economic Indicators: Decoding the Percentages: The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn’t bring the cheer investors hoped for. Yet, the 10-yr note seemed to be the week’s favorite, benefiting from safe-haven flows and optimism about future inflation rates. The 2-yr note yield dipped to 5.05%, while the 10-yr note yield experienced a more significant drop to 4.63%.
Fed Hawkish?: Federal representatives believe that the current stringent monetary policy will remain until inflation stabilizes, as indicated in recent records. “Most members felt that a subsequent hike in the benchmark interest rate would probably be fitting in an upcoming session.”
Microsoft Hit With $29B Tax Bill: The IRS claims that Microsoft has a pending tax bill of $29B, stemming from profit distributions across nations from 2004 to 2013. Microsoft plans to challenge this through the IRS’ review process, which might extend for several years.
Mac Sales Down: Recent data from IDC, Gartner, and Canalys reveal that Apple Macbook’s sales dropped by over 23% in the third quarter. While the broader PC market experienced a 7% to 9% dip in shipments, there was a slight uptick compared to the previous quarter.
UAW Strike: The UAW has initiated intensified strikes at Ford’s Kentucky truck facility. This expanded strike involves 8,700 UAW members and affects the production of Ford pickups, Expeditions, and Lincoln Navigators.
Earnings Season: The Corporate Scorecard Big names stepped into the earnings spotlight this week. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and UnitedHealth (UNH) all reported, showcasing generally favorable results.
Capitol Hill Chronicles: A Leadership Quandary The House faced a leadership conundrum this week. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) seemed poised to take the Speaker’s gavel but withdrew after failing to secure enough support. This leadership void adds uncertainty, especially with the budget agreement deadline on November 17 looming large.
In Conclusion
This week was a blend of geopolitical events, market movements, and specific economic numbers painting a vivid picture. As we gear up for the next week, the questions remain: How will the geopolitical landscape evolve? What will the market’s next move be? And can the House find its leader? The clock is ticking.
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Tuesday: Retail Sales (MoM)
Thursday: Existing Home Sales
Thursday: Philly Fed Manufacturing
Fed Talks
Earnings
Middle East Tensions
Earnings Galore!
Tesla Takes the Lead: This week, the spotlight’s on Tesla (TSLA) as it gears up to be the first of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants to unveil its Q3 results on Wednesday.
Banking Biggies: Last week, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) showcased robust quarterly profits, thanks to rising rates. This week, we’re all eyes for:
Bank of America (BAC)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
A slew of regional banks
Consumer Insights: Eager to get a pulse on consumer behavior? Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are set to spill the beans with their earnings reports.
U.S. Economic Pulse
Retail Rundown: Tuesday’s the day for September’s retail sales data. We’re looking at a projected 0.2% uptick, a tad slower than July’s 0.5% and August’s 0.6%.
Housing Health: Reports on building permits, housing starts, and the NAHB Housing Market Index are on the horizon, giving us a peek into the housing sector’s vitality.
Manufacturing Matters: Regional manufacturing activity reports are on the docket, and let’s just say, we’re not expecting fireworks.
Oil’s Roller Coaster Ride
Middle East Meltdown: The escalating tensions between Israel and certain terrorist groups have got the market on its toes.
U.S. Sanctions Stir the Pot: The U.S. threw a curveball last Thursday, slapping sanctions on folks moving Russian oil over the G7’s $60/barrel cap. With Russian and Middle Eastern oil dynamics in flux, we’re in for an interesting few weeks.
Global Glimpses & Noteworthy Nods
China’s Check-in: Come Wednesday, all eyes will be on China’s economic data, especially with the ongoing property sector drama and potential Beijing bailouts.
U.K. Inflation Intel: Prepping for the Bank of England’s November meeting, September’s inflation stats from the U.K. are eagerly awaited.
Fed Chats: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s set to drop some knowledge at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. Plus, we’ve got regional Fed presidents and Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller lined up for some noteworthy speeches this week.
Continue Reading
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson
Editor
AlphaBetaStock.com
Copyright © 2023 ABS Market Research, All rights reserved.
Unsubscribe from this list.
ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report commentary has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this website is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. Focused Specialists, LLC does not guarantee, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained in this website. At no time will ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller, or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and investing decisions. The content of this email may not be altered, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Focused Specialists, LLC.
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