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In light of the recent elections in Israel, it seems that there has been a shift in votes relative to the previous two elections. Below, please find our analysis of the most recent results:
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* The reason why the United Arab List and Israel Beytenu are not party of either block is because it is believed that should Gantz be given a chance to form a coalition, he will not ask the United Arab List to join the coalition and therefore they would not count towards Gantz’s political Center-Left block.
Liberman and his Israel Beytenu have been an enigma – while on many issues the party leans right, Liberman stated he will not sit with the Ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and Yahadut HaTorah).
What can still change?
There are still a number of special ballots that have yet to be counted, such as the soldiers in the IDF, prisons, boxes at handicap accessible stations, and coronavirus boxes. These last 10% of votes tend to change the result by a seat here or there. Usually the changes don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things but in these elections it means a lot since PM Netanyahu currently has 59 seats and would like to build a coalition of 61 seats with minimum efforts. It is worth noting that the IDF tends to vote more right, although in recent elections they have shifted somewhat to the center. Meaning, it is very feasible that the right block might receive another seat. The final results will be published by March 10.
So who is the winner?
PM Netanyahu can be satisfied with the results but must not lay on his laurels. Unlike previous elections, in this election PM Netanyahu has defeated MK Gantz in three important categories: Netanyahu (45%) recently polled higher than Gantz (35%) as fit for Prime Minister, Likud is the largest political party, and Netanyahu has the largest political block. All of these parameters position Netanyahu ahead of Gantz but still do not promise him a coalition.
Options to Build a Coalition
Assuming the right will still not have at least 61 seats after counting the last 10%, Benjamin Netanyahu has several options:
- The first step he will take, and has probably started working on, is convincing right-leaning members form the Blue and White or the Labor-Gesher-Meretz party to defect. A number of days before the elections a secret recording was published of Omer Yankelevich, an Ultra-Orthodox member of Gantz’s list, calling Gantz a ‘Zero’. MK Yankelevich and Orly Levy (of Labor-Gesher-Mertez) two clear targets of the Likud.
- Somehow convince Liberman to sit in a coalition with the Ultra-Orthodox parties. It would require delicate work with the Ultra-Orthodox and Liberman to find some status quo agreement on religion and state. Liberman has states numerous times before the elections and since the elections that he will take action so that Israel does not face a fourth elections.
- Forming a unity government with Blue and White. In this case Netanyahu and Gantz would rotate as Prime Minister. The main 2 questions would be (1) who would be first and who would be second? And (2) in the event that Netanyahu is convicted in court, what would happen?
- Another scenario, similar to the previous one but fundamentally different, is the Blue and White party dissolving and Gantz joining a Likud coalition. In which case it is not clear (1) whether Netanyahu would want other right wing parties who were loyal to him to join. If he does not include them, it will be a slap in the face to the right block. (2) Whether or not Gantz will demand a rotating Premiership.
- Although unlikely, Netanyahu can form a government of 59 seats with the outside support of Israel Beytenu. Liberman promised that he will not allow fourth elections and that he will not sit in a coalition with Ultra-Orthodox parties, but said nothing about outside support. This may seem like a silly solution, but this would allow Liberman to keep his promises.
The Rationale of Netanyahu and Gantz
Netanyahu – he would like to form a coalition as soon as possible, before his trial in court begins (March 17). It would send a clear message that the people of Israel elected him Prime Minister despite the allegations against him. Netanyahu can potentially ditch the right and form a unity government with Gantz, but he will most likely stay loyal to the right block since the voters will punish him in the future and never forget his betrayal. Netanyahu will most likely seek his block’s approval in negotiating a coalition with any party which is outside their block.
Gantz – he does not want to sit in the opposition. It would mean that (1) his political party will not last until next elections – it will break up, and (2) he will be dethroned from leading the party. He has no power to prevent any MK on his list from defecting to the right block (see option 1 for Netanyahu to form a government).
Fourth Elections?
It is still likely that neither Gantz nor Netanyahu will be able to form a government. At the same time, the Israeli politicians are tired of campaigning and the citizens of Israel are fed up with not having a government and with the negative campaigns of the political parties. It is in no ones favor to hold elections for the fourth time, and I am certain that they will do everything they can to avoid it, but it is still important to mention that fourth elections are still an option at this moment. If there were to be fourth elections, it is believed that it would not benefit Gantz at all: his party has been losing momentum and his leadership within the party will be questioned too. Netanyahu on the other hand would need to campaign while battling his cases in court.
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If you have any further questions or comments, please feel free to reach out to our Director of the Project for Israel's National Security,
Benjamin Weil - [email protected].
Thank you.
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Founded in 2005, The Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET) is a Washington, D.C. based think tank and policy center with an unabashedly pro-America and pro-Israel stance. EMET (which means truth in Hebrew) prides itself on challenging the falsehoods and misrepresentations that abound in U.S. Middle East policy.
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