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A preliminary recap of Israel's election: Same leaders. Same parties. Same
voters.
Very similar outcome?

In a somewhat maddening -- but not very surprising -- twist of fate,
Israel’s unprecedented third election in just 12 months last night appears
to have delivered roughly the same overall coalition-building math as the
first deadlocked result of April 2019.

After losing ground to Benny Gantz in the September do-over election,
Netanyahu has now regained the upper hand. While neither leader won an
obvious clear path to forming a new government, Netanyahu’s Likud is
clearly the largest vote-getter, and his right-wing coalition now has 59
seats, just two seats shy of a majority.

[ [link removed] ]***Register now for our election briefing this Thursday at 2pm
Eastern***
For Netanyahu and his pro-annexationist allies, the election results are
about as good as they could have hoped for, given the prime minister’s
embattled status as he faces trial for corruption in just a few weeks. For
progressive voters and the center-left, the results are disappointing.

At the moment, not all votes have been counted -- and with the margins so
tight, the 300,000 or so votes that remain to be tallied could have a
significant impact. If the center-right coalition somehow pick up 2 more
mandates and land at 61 seats, they will be able to finally form the
narrow new government of their dreams. If they remain at 59 or 60, we
could once again be looking at a choice between a “unity government”
encompassing Likud, Blue and White and Avigdor Lieberman’s party -- or,
unbelievably, a fourth election in the fall.

With 90% of the ballots counted, here are some of the main takeaways from
yesterday’s vote:

* Likud appears to have gained 4 seats to claim a total of 36, with Blue
and White losing one seat to win a total of 32.
* One of the most important factors in right-wing bloc’s
narrowly-improved performance appears to be the fact that over 65,000
voters shifted from the ultra-right “Otzma Yehudit” party to Likud or
other parties in the right-wing bloc. In the last election these votes
were “wasted” on a party that didn’t pass the threshold to enter the
Knesset. This time, they helped give Netanyahu push a big push toward
his 61-seat goal, accounting for as many as 2 seats -- after a major
concerted effort by the prime minister to win over these voters.
* The Joint List composed of majority Arab parties has gained two seats
to achieve its highest ever showing with 15 seats, powered by a highly
successful turnout effort among Arab communities.
* The vote for the historically left-wing parties has again diminished,
with the combined slate of Labor, Gesher and Meretz receiving a new
low of just seven seats.
* Despite expectations of election-fatigue, turnout was highest of the
three elections so far, hitting 71%. Arab turnout also peaked, hitting
65%.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that even after pulling every trick out
of the hat -- including an unprecedented intervention from President Trump
greenlighting West Bank annexation -- Netanyahu’s coalition still appears
likely to have fallen short of an outright majority, while Likud’s overall
share of the vote has barely changed. While Netanyahu may have narrowly
won last night’s battle, there’s no guarantee that he will win his war to
fully reshape Israel in his image, or to avoid facing punishment for his
misdeeds.

As with the previous two elections, the ultimate outcome of Monday’s vote
-- and whether a fourth election will need to be called -- will be
determined by negotiations between party leaders.

[ [link removed] ]For a deep-dive into the implications of the election outcome and what
the coming weeks of negotiations may bring, join us Thursday at 2pm
Eastern for a post-election briefing with J Street’s Israel Director Yael
Patir and former Zionist Union MK Ksenia Svetlova >>

Stage set for intense negotiations

[3]Gantz and Netanyahu

With last night’s results failing to seriously shift the underlying
coalition mathematics in parliament, the next few weeks will be filled
with public political posturing and closed-door negotiations aimed at
averting a fourth election and building a government which can survive a
vote of confidence on the floor of the Knesset. In the middle of it all
will be Netanyahu’s corruption trial, which -- if it is not postponed --
is slated to commence on March 17, and may yet bring down the freshly
emboldened prime minister.

For the man himself, the stakes remain as high as ever. Netanyahu’s
ability to influence the legal system and stall the criminal proceedings
against him rest on his ability to keep the top job and pass legislation
in the Knesset -- that’s perhaps why Netanyahu described last night’s
results as “the biggest win of my life” in a victory speech to
supporters.

For the pro-annexation right, the current political moment offers an
unprecedented window of opportunity. Only a Likud-led, right-wing
coalition is likely to act on the Trump administration’s stunning offer
to recognize Israeli sovereignty of a significant portion of the West
Bank. But even the continuation of a Netanyahu-led caretaker government
could bring about steps towards annexation, in concert with a clear
green light from the Trump administration.

For his part, Gantz struggled to maintain an air of optimism in his
post-election address. “I understand the feeling of disappointment,”
Gantz told supporters, encouraging them to wait until every last vote
had been counted. “I'm not afraid of a long journey,” he said, “I'm not
afraid at all.”

At the center of negotiations -- once again -- will be secular-right
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, whose haul of seven seats
could tip the balance toward a Likud-led majority government, a unity
government between the two major parties or a minority Gantz-led
government backed by the Joint List. In remarks to reporters waiting
outside his house last night, Lieberman was coy in leaving his options
open. “We will make the decisions in accordance with Israel's benefit
and in accordance with our obligations to the voter,” he said.

Lieberman has previously ruled out supporting any coalition headed by
Netanyahu or dependent on Joint List support, but his calculations may
change now that Netanyahu has regained the upper hand and the country
stares down the barrel of yet another election if a government can’t be
formed. With so much at stake, we can expect Netanyahu to go all out in
his attempt to woo Yisrael Beiteinu into a coalition agreement, and to
peel off wavering MKs from other parties.

[ [link removed] ]Register to join our post-election briefing with J Street Israel
Director Yael Patir and former Zionist Union MK Ksenia Svetlova on
Thursday at 2pm Eastern >>

Secret recordings rock campaigns in final days

Benny Gantz described this most recent ordeal “the nastiest election
campaign in Israel's history.” While that may or may not be true --
Netanyahu has deployed racist incitement and voter intimidation in
previous campaigns -- the last few days were certainly brutal for the Blue
and White leader.

Last week, recordings of Gantz’s top strategist speaking candidly with a
rabbi emerged. The strategist said Gantz would be a "danger to the people
of Israel” for being weak on Iran. “She says he’s a dumb loser unfit to be
prime minister,” the strategist said, quoting a lawmaker Omer Yankelevich
from Gantz’s own party.

Days later, another recording emerged, this time from a close Netanyahu
advisor who told an unnamed individual that “hate is what united our
campaign.” The strategist was recorded praising “Likud’s campaign of hate”
as being especially effective with non-Ashkenazi Jews who “hate everything
and we’ve succeeded in whipping up that hatred.”

Both Gantz and Netanyahu moved to distance themselves from their advisors,
with Blue and White firing their strategist over the recordings. While
Netanyahu denied any advanced knowledge or involvement with the anti-Gantz
recording, a third recording emerged days later of Netanyahu speaking with
his strategists about when to release the damaging audio.

In the wake of election results, Likud sees Omer Yankelevich as a prime
target for defection from Blue and White. “In recent days, Yankelevich has
indirectly communicated to Likud that she is considering defecting,”
Haaretz [ [link removed] ]has reported. “According to information obtained by Haaretz,
Likud is holding onto additional recordings involving Yankelevich and are
using them as a bargaining tool in negotiations.” Likud has denied the
report, and Yankelevich has said she won’t be jumping ship.

Turnout high despite another frantic election day

[6]Voter

The Central Elections Committee, charged with overseeing the orderly
conduct of national elections, always has its work cut out for it on
election day. This year, the committee ordered Netanyahu’s Likud to delete
a doctored video of Gantz appearing to tell Israelis not to vote for him.
They also fined the Orthodox Shas party for violating election laws by
distributing booklets at polling stations, as well as charms which Shas
claimed would protect voters from the coronavirus. The far-right Otzma
Yehudit party also submitted an urgent petition against Likud, alleging
that Netanyahu’s party had sent out anonymous text messages to voters
claiming that Otzma had dropped out of the race.

Despite the dirty tricks and expected voter-fatigue, turnout was up to its
highest levels since 2015 at 71%. Observers have credited a strong effort
from Likud to turn out its voters, as well as the Trump ‘peace’ plan,
which appears to have backfired and inspired strong Arab-Israeli turnout
from those opposed to Trump’s West Bank annexation proposal. The Joint
List’s efforts appear to have been particularly successful, and included a
strong focus on getting Arab women and isolated Bedouin communities out to
vote.

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