It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Stefani Reynolds/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE STAKES RISE
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

The choppy waves on the south side of the U.S. Capitol, where the House sits, now could affect an urgent crisis elsewhere ([link removed]) .

The Israel-Hamas war has introduced a new dimension to the fight for House speaker.

Here’s what we know.

Israel’s possible requests and needs
* The U.S. has already begun sending military aid, including munitions and equipment ([link removed]) , to Israel, per National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. U.S. officials expect additional and urgent requests ahead.
* The problem: Right now, Congress is not able to pass any new legislation that has not already made it out of the House.
* Why is this? The House does not have a permanent speaker.
* But what about the temporary speaker? Good question. See below.

What can the acting House speaker do?
* Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., is currently the head of the House as “speaker pro tempore.” Latin scholars know of course that “pro tem” means “for now” or “for the time being.” ([link removed].) It is temporary. (If only politics itself could be “pro tem.”)
* Notably, McHenry is also appointed. He is in the position due to a post-Sept. 11 rule change ([link removed]) that directs House speakers to put together a list of people to step in to fill the position temporarily if it becomes vacant. (See “Vacancy” section in this nice summary ([link removed]) of House rules in this area.) Speaker McCarthy named McHenry to be his successor in this situation.
* These two things mean McHenry’s power is limited. He only “may exercise such authorities of the Office of Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate pending the election of a Speaker or Speaker pro tempore,” according to House rules.
* What does that mean? The truth is no one is certain. It is debatable ([link removed]) .
* But for the moment most House Republican members, including Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who sits on the House Rules Committee ([link removed]) , believe McHenry cannot bring any legislation to the floor.

How soon could there be a permanent speaker?
* This is, you guessed it, another unknown.
* House Republicans meet tonight to hear from the two declared candidates: Reps. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Steve Scalise, R-La. ([link removed])
* Neither candidate is likely to run into the same math problem as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A speaker needs a majority of the House, currently 217 votes if all members are present. Republicans have 221 members, meaning all but four must support the same candidate.
* There are some possible twists here, including whether Republicans hash this out on the floor of the House or behind closed doors. But either way, that will be a very tough number to reach.

This could add days to the limbo in the House. If not more.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: In remarks about the Israel-Hamas war, President Joe Biden said there was “no justification for terrorism” ([link removed]) and affirmed commitment to Israel.
* One Big Question: What’s been happening in the Israel-Hamar war? Follow live updates here ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: What is Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that has remained committed to violently resisting Israel? The Council on Foreign Relations explains ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the pressure to elect a House speaker ([link removed]) after the Hamas attack in Israel.


HOW ‘DOUBLE HATERS’ HAVE BECOME A SWING VOTER GROUP

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Photo by Mike Segar/Reuters

By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Fourteen percent of voters say they dislike both of the leading candidates for president, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) , more than four times the number who were dissatisfied with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump last Election Day.

Biden has a slight lead over Trump, his predecessor and current frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they’d choose the incumbent and 47 percent siding with Trump, according to the poll. Independents favor Trump by an 8-point margin. The race remains virtually unchanged from August and is inside the poll’s margin of error.

While both candidates have a commanding lead with their respective partisan voters, 51 percent of voters in this poll have a negative impression of Biden and 56 percent dislike Trump.
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Image by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — “the double haters,” Republican strategist Whit Ayers says — “become a swing voter group” that both parties will spend significant time and money trying to win over.

These voters are more likely to back Trump by a two-to-one margin in the latest poll. Fifty-four percent say they’d back Trump if the election were held today, while 27 percent say they’d choose Biden and 19 percent remain undecided. That is in line with how voters behaved at the polls in 2020. Exit polling shows that 3 percent of voters said they were dissatisfied with both candidates, and of those 52 percent voted for Trump and 35 for Biden.

When given the option of choosing a generic candidate who is not Trump or Biden, 17 percent of all voters – and more than a third of independents – said they would support a third-party nominee.

Sixty-five percent of voters do not want Biden to be president again, while 60 percent say the same of Trump.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Kyle Midura, @KyleMidura ([link removed])
Politics Producer

While the ouster of former Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is unprecedented, his 269-day tenure is not the shortest in history.

Rep. Michael Kerr. R-Ind., — the first Democratic speaker following the Civil War — had the second shortest stint ([link removed]) , holding the gavel for 258 days across 1875 and 1876. His speakership ended with his death due to tuberculosis in 1876 at the age of 49.

Our question: Which House speaker holds the seemingly unbreakable record for the shortest tenure in history, and what were the circumstances?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: When was the last time the House voted on removing a speaker, and who was it?

The answer: Joseph G. Cannon ([link removed]) . The Illinois Republican, who was considered a tyrant as House Speaker, faced a revolt within his own party in 1910. The motion to vacate Cannon from the speakership ultimately failed.

Congratulations to our winners: Richard Mixdorf and Beverley Chang!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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