Daily News Brief

October 10, 2023

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Joe Biden’s anticipated remarks today come after a statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom (UK) yesterday that voiced “steadfast and united” support for Israel (NYT) and unequivocal condemnation of the Palestinian militant group Hamas and its attacks on Israel. The attacks have killed more than nine hundred people in the country. Yesterday, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Iran to stay out (FT) of the brewing war. As Israeli forces moved to retake towns near the border with Gaza, they reported having killed around 1,500 Hamas fighters. Israel’s ruling coalition said today that it aims to form an emergency government that includes members of the opposition. 

While it remains unclear whether Israel will conduct a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces have bombed the enclave, where the UN humanitarian office says nearly 200,000 people have fled their homes (Reuters) since the start of hostilities. Citizens of at least sixteen countries, including the United States, have been confirmed dead or missing (Al-Monitor) in the conflict.

Analysis

“Powerful, centrifugal forces have been unleashed that have rewritten the rules for Israel and Hamas, and perhaps others in the region,” CFR expert Bruce Hoffman writes in an In Brief. “For instance, given Hezbollah’s longstanding ties with Hamas and the fact that their mutual state patron has an immense interest in ensuring the longevity of its regional terrorist clients, Hezbollah will, of its own accord but completely in sync with Iran’s wishes, likely enter the war if Israel launches a ground assault in Gaza.” 

“[Israel] faces difficult choices on what to do next to ensure that Hamas is weakened and that such an attack does not recur. Israeli leaders need to reestablish deterrence against Hamas and other adversaries while preventing the spread of violence to the West Bank, protecting the country’s recent diplomatic gains, and managing an ongoing hostage situation,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer write for Foreign Affairs.

Check out the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

The hack attempts occurred earlier this year (WaPo) as the United States and Vietnam were undergoing negotiations, according to findings by Amnesty International that were published by a group of news organizations. An unnamed U.S. official called the targeting of lawmakers concerning and said that fifty U.S. officials serving abroad had been previously targeted with commercial spyware. The Vietnamese government declined to comment on the matter.

China/Taiwan: In a National Day address today, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that peace with China is the “only option” (AP) even as she emphasized that Taiwan has strengthened its defenses to be able to respond to Chinese threats.

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert David Sacks looks at Taiwan’s growing defense spending.

South and Central Asia

At its annual meeting in Morocco today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its projection that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 6.3 percent (NDTV) this year. The Fund also warned that the world economy is “limping” along, with the Euro area expected to grow by just 0.7 percent this year.

This Backgrounder by Andrew Chatzky, Anshu Siripurapu, and CFR’s Jonathan Masters explains the IMF’s role as a financial firefighter.

Myanmar: The country’s military forces bombed a camp for displaced people yesterday, killing twenty-nine and wounding more than fifty others, an official in a rebel group that controls the area said. A Myanmar military official denied responsibility for the attack. It appeared to be the deadliest military attack on civilians in six months, the New York Times reported.

Middle East and North Africa

Over the past week, Turkey has struck nearly two hundred targets (Al-Monitor) it says are linked to Kurdish militant bases in northern Iraq and Syria, including those of the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). An SDF commander said Turkey has also targeted civilian sites such as schools. The attacks were in response to a suicide bombing in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, earlier this month for which the Kurdistan Workers’ Party claimed responsibility.

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Kali Robinson looks at Turkey’s foreign policy ambitions.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nineteen candidates are on today’s ballot (CNN), including incumbent President George Weah, who faced allegations of corruption and mismanagement during his first term. The UN peacekeeping mission was present for more than a decade following Liberia’s two civil wars, and provided external security during the country’s previous election. 

Iran/Sudan: The two countries announced yesterday that they will resume formal diplomatic ties (Reuters) after Sudan severed them in 2016 over the storming of the Saudi embassy in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Iran and Saudi Arabia restored their own ties in a China-mediated deal earlier this year.

Europe

European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the bloc would not suspend aid payments (Politico) to the Palestinian Authority hours after an announcement yesterday by the bloc’s enlargement commissioner that said the opposite. EU foreign ministers are meeting today on the conflict and are expected to discuss EU financial aid to the Palestinian Authority, an issue which has long divided the bloc.

Rwanda/UK: The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court began hearing a government challenge (FT) yesterday to a lower court ruling that blocked its plans to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. The lower court ruled the plan was unlawful because Rwanda was not considered a safe destination for refugees.

Americas

Kenya’s high court temporarily blocked the deployment (Miami Herald) that had been approved by the UN Security Council last week while it reviews a petition on whether the deployment is constitutional. President William Ruto did not seek congressional approval before volunteering the forces, and some opposition lawmakers have pushed back against his plans.

Guatemala: President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo de León accused the current government of using violence (Reuters) to counter protesters calling for a peaceful transfer of power. Arévalo and international watchdogs have also alleged that the attorney general’s office used politically motivated charges to undermine his victory in August’s runoff election.

United States

The strategy aims to overcome far-right Republicans’ opposition to approving more aid to Ukraine, unnamed U.S. officials told the Washington Post. Support for Israel is more widespread among lawmakers. The request could come as early as next week, though Republican lawmakers have warned against bundling the countries’ aid.

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