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Investors Brace For CPI and Middle East War (Weekly Cheat Sheet)
| From | Irving Wilkinson <[email protected]> |
| Subject | Investors Brace For CPI and Middle East War (Weekly Cheat Sheet) |
| Date | October 9, 2023 2:02 PM |
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Good morning,
Happy Columbus Day! It has been another wild week in the markets and geopolitics with the attack on Israel. We have included notes in the Oil & Energy section for readers.
Ah, the stock market! A place where numbers dance and twirl, telling tales of fortunes made and lost. This week, the financial stage was ablaze with a somewhat mixed ballet of indices, sectors, and economic data, each performer playing its part in a drama that unfolded under the watchful eyes of investors and analysts alike.
Table of Contents
A Mixed Bag of Performances
Sectorial Sway: The Ups and Downs
The Economic Ballet: Data and Politics
Daily Acts: A Snapshot
Pondering the Financial Ballet
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Inflation and the Fed: A Watchful Eye on the Economic Horizon
Earnings Season: A Financial Forecast in the Banking Sector
Consumers and Small Businesses: Peering into Economic Prospects
Oil Prices and the Middle East: Navigating through Economic and Geopolitical Waves
BONDS
COMMODITIES
Oil & Energy
Gold & Precious Metals
CRYPTOCURRENCY
A Mixed Bag of Performances
The first week of the month was nothing short of a rollercoaster, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dancing to a positive tune, registering gains of 0.5% and 1.6% respectively. However, not all indices joined the upbeat jive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a dip, declining by 0.2% and a more substantial 2.2% respectively.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) took the spotlight with a stellar performance, boasting a gain of 2.5%, contrasting sharply with the modest 0.5% gain of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) took a stumble, falling by 1.2%.
Sectorial Sway: The Ups and Downs
In the sectorial ballet, eight out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors pirouetted into the red this week. The energy sector, swaying with the fluctuations of WTI crude oil futures, took a 5.4% bow, influenced partly by concerns about weakening demand amidst a slower growth environment and higher interest rates. The consumer staples and utilities sectors didn’t fare much better, declining by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively.
On the flip side, the information technology and communication services sectors basked in the limelight, closing with impressive gains of 3.1% and 2.9% respectively.
The Economic Ballet: Data and Politics
The economic stage was adorned with various acts, from employment reports to political dramas. Nonfarm payrolls in September surprised the audience, increasing by a much stronger-than-anticipated 336,000, while average hourly earnings growth took a slight step back to 4.2% year-over-year from 4.3% in August.
Political curtains were drawn with a cloud of uncertainty as the House voted 216-210 to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, a move that is likely to complicate negotiations and potentially stall business until a new Speaker is elected.
Daily Acts: A Snapshot
Monday: A familiar pattern with stocks struggling alongside rising market rates, with the S&P 500 subtly masking broad weakness beneath the surface.
Tuesday: A struggle amidst rising market rates, with a bounce attempt in both the stock and bond markets quickly fading.
Wednesday: A choppy session with the major indices finishing near their best levels, thanks in part to mega-cap performance.
Thursday: A turbulent day with modest declines, as buyers hesitated ahead of the September jobs report.
Friday: A day of recovery, with major indices closing out the session near their highs, and the S&P 500 climbing above the 4,300 level.
Pondering the Financial Ballet
The Energy Sector’s Plunge: With an 8.8% decline in WTI crude oil futures to $83.04/bbl, the ISRAEL War is expected to cause a surge now to $100. Expect energy sector stocks to rise as well.
Political Uncertainty: How will the unprecedented action of removing the Speaker of the House influence future political and economic landscapes?
Rate Hike Expectations: With the recalibration of rate hike expectations following the employment report, how might this impact various sectors and overall market sentiment in the near future?
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Wednesday: PPI (MoM) (September)
Thursday: CPI (MoM) (September)
Earnings
Middle East Tensions
Inflation and the Fed: A Watchful Eye on the Economic Horizon
Ah, the ever-looming specter of inflation! This week, investors are poised to scrutinize the forthcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), anticipated to reveal a 0.4% month-over-month uptick for September. Wall Street is casting its bets on a 3.7% annual surge in headline inflation for the same month.
Meanwhile, the Core CPI, sidestepping the erratic nature of food and fuel prices, is projected to ascend at an annual rate of 4.2%, potentially marking the most modest annual swell since September 2021. This pivotal data will undoubtedly sculpt expectations surrounding the Fed’s impending maneuvers. Moreover, investors might just peer into the Fed’s future plans, with several officials, including Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, and Christopher Waller, slated to speak throughout the week.
Earnings Season: A Financial Forecast in the Banking Sector
The curtain rises on the third-quarter earnings season later this week, with financial behemoths like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFG) gearing up to unveil their results on Friday. Investors will be all eyes and ears, keenly observing how banks navigate the sustained trajectory of towering interest rates, which have birthed extreme levels of unrealized losses on investments.
Analysts are banking on third-quarter earnings to shed light on whether the market can uphold its year-to-date gains as it sails into the year’s final quarter.
Consumers and Small Businesses: Peering into Economic Prospects
As we embark on the fourth quarter, investors are set to glean crucial insights into the U.S. consumer economy and the forecast for small businesses. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will shed light on the pulse of small businesses, especially considering the impact of pricing pressures and labor qualms.
On the consumer front, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers is poised to offer investors a window into consumer confidence as we glide into the holiday season, traditionally marked by a spending spree.
Oil Prices and the Middle East: Navigating through Economic and Geopolitical Waves
After riding a significant surge in oil prices over the preceding few months, both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude encountered notable weekly losses last week, teetering near double digits. Analysts harbor concerns that the ongoing dilution of global growth might cast a shadow on demand as we steer into the next year. However, escalating tensions and recent flare-ups of conflicts in Israel and the Middle East have rekindled fears about oil being ensnared in geopolitical strife, potentially triggering a short-term spike in oil prices.
Click here to keep reading the report.....
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson
Editor
AlphaBetaStock.com
Copyright © 2023 ABS Market Research, All rights reserved.
Unsubscribe from this list.
ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report commentary has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this website is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. Focused Specialists, LLC does not guarantee, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained in this website. At no time will ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller, or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and investing decisions. The content of this email may not be altered, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Focused Specialists, LLC.
Happy Columbus Day! It has been another wild week in the markets and geopolitics with the attack on Israel. We have included notes in the Oil & Energy section for readers.
Ah, the stock market! A place where numbers dance and twirl, telling tales of fortunes made and lost. This week, the financial stage was ablaze with a somewhat mixed ballet of indices, sectors, and economic data, each performer playing its part in a drama that unfolded under the watchful eyes of investors and analysts alike.
Table of Contents
A Mixed Bag of Performances
Sectorial Sway: The Ups and Downs
The Economic Ballet: Data and Politics
Daily Acts: A Snapshot
Pondering the Financial Ballet
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Inflation and the Fed: A Watchful Eye on the Economic Horizon
Earnings Season: A Financial Forecast in the Banking Sector
Consumers and Small Businesses: Peering into Economic Prospects
Oil Prices and the Middle East: Navigating through Economic and Geopolitical Waves
BONDS
COMMODITIES
Oil & Energy
Gold & Precious Metals
CRYPTOCURRENCY
A Mixed Bag of Performances
The first week of the month was nothing short of a rollercoaster, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dancing to a positive tune, registering gains of 0.5% and 1.6% respectively. However, not all indices joined the upbeat jive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 took a dip, declining by 0.2% and a more substantial 2.2% respectively.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) took the spotlight with a stellar performance, boasting a gain of 2.5%, contrasting sharply with the modest 0.5% gain of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) took a stumble, falling by 1.2%.
Sectorial Sway: The Ups and Downs
In the sectorial ballet, eight out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors pirouetted into the red this week. The energy sector, swaying with the fluctuations of WTI crude oil futures, took a 5.4% bow, influenced partly by concerns about weakening demand amidst a slower growth environment and higher interest rates. The consumer staples and utilities sectors didn’t fare much better, declining by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively.
On the flip side, the information technology and communication services sectors basked in the limelight, closing with impressive gains of 3.1% and 2.9% respectively.
The Economic Ballet: Data and Politics
The economic stage was adorned with various acts, from employment reports to political dramas. Nonfarm payrolls in September surprised the audience, increasing by a much stronger-than-anticipated 336,000, while average hourly earnings growth took a slight step back to 4.2% year-over-year from 4.3% in August.
Political curtains were drawn with a cloud of uncertainty as the House voted 216-210 to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, a move that is likely to complicate negotiations and potentially stall business until a new Speaker is elected.
Daily Acts: A Snapshot
Monday: A familiar pattern with stocks struggling alongside rising market rates, with the S&P 500 subtly masking broad weakness beneath the surface.
Tuesday: A struggle amidst rising market rates, with a bounce attempt in both the stock and bond markets quickly fading.
Wednesday: A choppy session with the major indices finishing near their best levels, thanks in part to mega-cap performance.
Thursday: A turbulent day with modest declines, as buyers hesitated ahead of the September jobs report.
Friday: A day of recovery, with major indices closing out the session near their highs, and the S&P 500 climbing above the 4,300 level.
Pondering the Financial Ballet
The Energy Sector’s Plunge: With an 8.8% decline in WTI crude oil futures to $83.04/bbl, the ISRAEL War is expected to cause a surge now to $100. Expect energy sector stocks to rise as well.
Political Uncertainty: How will the unprecedented action of removing the Speaker of the House influence future political and economic landscapes?
Rate Hike Expectations: With the recalibration of rate hike expectations following the employment report, how might this impact various sectors and overall market sentiment in the near future?
CALENDAR & MOVERS
Wednesday: PPI (MoM) (September)
Thursday: CPI (MoM) (September)
Earnings
Middle East Tensions
Inflation and the Fed: A Watchful Eye on the Economic Horizon
Ah, the ever-looming specter of inflation! This week, investors are poised to scrutinize the forthcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), anticipated to reveal a 0.4% month-over-month uptick for September. Wall Street is casting its bets on a 3.7% annual surge in headline inflation for the same month.
Meanwhile, the Core CPI, sidestepping the erratic nature of food and fuel prices, is projected to ascend at an annual rate of 4.2%, potentially marking the most modest annual swell since September 2021. This pivotal data will undoubtedly sculpt expectations surrounding the Fed’s impending maneuvers. Moreover, investors might just peer into the Fed’s future plans, with several officials, including Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, and Christopher Waller, slated to speak throughout the week.
Earnings Season: A Financial Forecast in the Banking Sector
The curtain rises on the third-quarter earnings season later this week, with financial behemoths like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFG) gearing up to unveil their results on Friday. Investors will be all eyes and ears, keenly observing how banks navigate the sustained trajectory of towering interest rates, which have birthed extreme levels of unrealized losses on investments.
Analysts are banking on third-quarter earnings to shed light on whether the market can uphold its year-to-date gains as it sails into the year’s final quarter.
Consumers and Small Businesses: Peering into Economic Prospects
As we embark on the fourth quarter, investors are set to glean crucial insights into the U.S. consumer economy and the forecast for small businesses. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will shed light on the pulse of small businesses, especially considering the impact of pricing pressures and labor qualms.
On the consumer front, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers is poised to offer investors a window into consumer confidence as we glide into the holiday season, traditionally marked by a spending spree.
Oil Prices and the Middle East: Navigating through Economic and Geopolitical Waves
After riding a significant surge in oil prices over the preceding few months, both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude encountered notable weekly losses last week, teetering near double digits. Analysts harbor concerns that the ongoing dilution of global growth might cast a shadow on demand as we steer into the next year. However, escalating tensions and recent flare-ups of conflicts in Israel and the Middle East have rekindled fears about oil being ensnared in geopolitical strife, potentially triggering a short-term spike in oil prices.
Click here to keep reading the report.....
Have a great week!
Irving Wilkinson
Editor
AlphaBetaStock.com
Copyright © 2023 ABS Market Research, All rights reserved.
Unsubscribe from this list.
ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report commentary has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this website is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. Focused Specialists, LLC does not guarantee, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained in this website. At no time will ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller, or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by ABS Advisor Market Intelligence Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and investing decisions. The content of this email may not be altered, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Focused Specialists, LLC.
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