This week, Rishi Sunak took the next step on the road to prohibition.

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The big idea in the Prime Minister’s party conference speech this year was to extend the ban on selling cigarettes to children by one year every year. Over time, fewer and fewer people will be allowed to buy cigarettes until eventually everyone in Britain will be treated like a child. As a policy it leaves a lot to be desired but as a metaphor for our times, it is palpably apt.

Sunak’s plan is borrowed from New Zealand where it has been put into legislation but will not start to have an effect for several years. If introduced in Britain, it will create a two-tier society in which 42 year olds will eventually not be able to buy tobacco while 43 year olds can. This will create a headache for retailers and could require a national ID card scheme. It is bound to lead to a big increase in black market sales which already make up 18 per cent of the tobacco market. And, as I argue in the Sunday Telegraph today, it sets a dangerous precedent for other products, including e-cigarettes and alcohol.

The government has tried to put a firewall between tobacco and other products by saying that there is no safe level of smoking. Sunak himself has said that ‘smoking is different to a pack of crisps or a piece of cake’. But the ‘public health’ lobby disagrees. There was a time when it suited their agenda to portray cigarettes as a unique product, but those days are over. They now claim that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption and that added sugar has no place in the human diet. A growing number of them insist that ‘ultra-processed food’ is inherently dangerous. In their eyes, tobacco, alcohol, gambling, vaping and processed food are only different by degrees. The ‘public health’ mob will chip away at them until prohibition becomes politically feasible.

Mr Sunak used an economic argument to justify his prohibitionist scheme but, as I explained in The Critic ([link removed]) , the sums do no add up. He cited an unreliable estimate from a pressure group to claim that smoking costs the nation £17 billion a year. The reality is that smokers have been net contributors to the public purse for a very long time.

Christopher Snowdon

IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics

Sunak announces crackdown on smoking with increases to buying age ([link removed])

Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon, ITV News, The Times ([link removed]) , The Daily Mail ([link removed]) & The Daily Express ([link removed])

The slippery slope becomes a cliff… Public health campaigners promised that interventions like the indoor smoking ban and plain packaging weren’t in pursuit of full scale prohibition. The slippery slope argument is no fallacy.
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** The many flaws in Sunak’s smoking wheeze ([link removed])
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Christopher Snowdon, The Spectator

Shades of grey… Does the government really believe that adults will not just buy cigarettes for their slightly younger adult friends?

‘I would rather have my child grow up in a free country’ ([link removed])

Christopher Snowdon, GB News, BBC News, Channel 5 & talkTV.

Infantilised from cradle to grave… Not content to nanny the lifestyle choices of existing adults, the government now plans to supervise unborn smokers for their entire lives.
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** A boost for the black market ([link removed])
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Christopher Snowdon, BBC Radio 5 Live, Times Radio & ([link removed]) [link removed] ([link removed])

An iron law… Prohibition doesn’t prohibit. If there is high demand for a product, people will still buy it. The question for the government is whether they want a generation of smokers to buy tobacco from legal stores or black market dealers.

Follow Sweden, not New Zealand ([link removed])

Communications Officer Reem Ibrahim, BBC Radio Kent

Reduce harm, not freedom… Sweden’s success in reducing smoking and lung cancer has been gained from promoting alternative nicotine products, not through prohibition.
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** Debates over the future of conservatism take centre stage in Manchester
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Cigarette prohibition was not the only story to come out of this year’s Conservative Party Conference. In his keynote speech, Rishi Sunak confirmed that the second leg of HS2 would be cancelled, with the £36 million cost set to be reinvested in upgrading railway infrastructure in the North and Midlands.

Meanwhile, debates on the future direction of conservatism flared up over a range of issues. The Home Secretary’s claim that assimilation of immigrants has failed came under scrutiny, as did Rishi Sunak’s lack of action to lower the tax burden and reform the planning system. This year’s ThinkTent panels on freedom of speech ([link removed]) and the future of conservatism ([link removed]) also made the headlines.
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** HS2 downgrade ‘is a victory for common sense’, says think tank ([link removed])
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Director General Mark Littlewood, The Daily Telegraph ([link removed])

Taxpayers railroaded… In his response ([link removed]) to the Prime Minister’s Conservative Party Conference speech, Mark welcomed the decision, but warned that the project’s failure serves as a warning that government must reform planning and urgently address the astronomical cost of building infrastructure in the UK.

Let’s be honest, immigrants aren’t responsible for Britain’s woes ([link removed])

Director of Public Policy and Communications Matthew Lesh, City AM

Scapegoated… Britain’s housing shortage and lack of economic growth are caused by bad policy, not migrants. Matthew also defended liberal immigration at our ThinkTent ‘Battle of the think tanks’ ([link removed]) debate.
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Graham Linehan attacks cancel culture at Conservative Party Conference ([link removed])

BBC News, The Independent ([link removed]) & The Daily Mail ([link removed])

Increasingly intolerant… Panellists, including Head of Cultural Affairs Marc Glendening highlighted the cultural and legal assault on freedom of speech at this year’s ThinkTent.

State pension age may have to rise to 75, says Lord Frost ([link removed])

The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail ([link removed]) & GB News ([link removed])

A victim of its own success… The significant economic growth and increase in living standards over the last 75 years means that people are living longer, healthier lives. But that makes the state pension unviable without reform.
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** NHS Crisis: How can we improve Britain’s health service? ([link removed])
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Head of Political Economy Kristian Niemietz, IEA Blog ([link removed])

Beyond repair… At our ThinkTent panel on fixing Britain’s health service ([link removed]) , Kristian argued that overhauling the NHS system is the only way to sustainably improve outcomes.

IEA Latest.
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** NHS charging would be hard to run and only raise small sums ([link removed])
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Head of Political Economy Kristian Niemietz, The Guardian

A taboo topic… Co-payments are the norm among Western healthcare systems, even in Scandinavian countries.
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Is the British state broken? ([link removed])

Director of Public Policy and Communications Matthew Lesh and London School of Economics Professor Alexander Evans, IEA YouTube

More government waste… From the chaotic early response to Covid-19, to record-long NHS waiting lists and a broken planning system, the British state appears unable to solve our key political problems.
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UK industry risks falling foul of EU’s new carbon tax ([link removed])

Energy Analyst Andy Mayer, City AM

Eco protectionism… New EU carbon border taxes will undermine competitiveness and may unintentionally undermine Net Zero ambitions.
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Brexit-bashers are wrong, says top economist ([link removed])

Economics Fellow Julian Jessop, GB News & The Telegraph ([link removed])

Moving on up… New trade agreements, financial services reforms, and weak growth in large EU economies have led to a reassessment of Brexit Britain’s prospects.
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** Cost of rail strikes mounts to £716 million as taxpayers forced to support struggling industry ([link removed])
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Editorial and Research Fellow Len Shackleton, City AM

On the hook… While already well-paid train drivers call for inflation-busting pay rises, taxpayers must bear the costs.

IEA Insider.


** IEA attends Open Summit 2023
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Last week, IEA staff attended the Open Summit in Berlin, hosted by our friends at Prometheus - Die Freiheitsinstitut.

Head of International Relations Adam Bartha and EPICENTER Project Manager Jacob Farley hosted an EPICENTER away day, before handing out some key literature produced by the network’s partners at the conference.

Communications Officer Harrison Griffiths chaired a panel on the future of open society in countries like Turkey and Hungary.

Monetary system stability amid global discord lecture

On Monday 16th October, the Institute of International Monetary Research will host a lecture on monetary stability amid increasing economic and political turmoil.

The lecture will be delivered by Harvard Kennedy School fellow Sir Paul Tucker, formerly a central banker at both the Bank of England and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Find out more and sign up here ([link removed]) .
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