Hi John,

What a week. Kevin McCarthy now has the dubious distinction of being both the first Speaker of the House elected on the 15th ballot and the first to be removed from the position by a vote of the House. House Republicans are now scrambling to find a replacement. With no clear successor and government funding set to expire on November 17, time is short for the Republican caucus to resolve their deep differences and restore order.

The chaos caused by House Republicans, unfortunately, could also contribute to uncertainty across economic markets at a moment when we desperately need stability. That’s why in this week’s On the Grid, we’re diving into economic metrics to get a better understanding of the landscape in front of us.

Speaker McCarthy was forced out with little over a month until the temporary government funding deal expires. To understand how this could impact our economy, we took a look at key economic indicators to get a sense of investment trends, shifts in the labor market, and overall health for various industries—all of which can influence the pace and direction of the clean energy transition. Here’s a quick snapshot into what they mean:

• Construction spending rose 7.4% in August compared to last year, with a staggering surge in investment toward building new manufacturing plants, up by 65.5% from last year. But, high inflation and supply chain constraints are proving to be a sticky issue keeping some projects from taking off.
• As sectors like manufacturing expand, we see increased workforce demands to support this growth. Purchasing managers noted strong jobs in the supply chain for the month of September to build that support.
• Industries are hiring–seasonally adjusted figures in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey show a stable hiring rate with little change in quits and separations. And with unemployment insurance claims falling, key economic markers point to a solid labor market, which we saw confirmed today as the economy welcomed an unprecedented 336,000 new jobs–the biggest gain since January.

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are surging and are expected to surpass gas-powered vehicle sales in the US as early as 2030. The auto industry is moving toward a future where the standard is electric. The question that remains–will the US get to lead the EV transition? Or will we cede that territory to foreign competitors?

The US government has offered billions of dollars in support to ensure that American businesses are at the forefront, and it's paying off big time. Construction spending to build new manufacturing plants has reached nearly $200 billion–with a growing portion of that dedicated to building things like EV manufacturing plants. But some Americans remain skeptical that EVs can meet their needs and will benefit American manufacturing.

With Republicans seizing this moment to cast doubts on EVs and frame them as a culture issue, we developed messaging guidance to help Americans understand the benefits of the EV transition. Here’s a snapshot:

• Stress how failing to invest and build out America’s EV industry will not only put our economy behind but will allow countries like China to set the pace for a massive sector of the global economy.
• Highlight the rich history of American automaking while emphasizing the role that EV manufacturing will have in preserving and extending that legacy.
• Celebrate American auto workers, who have a proven track record when it comes to navigating shifts in the auto industry, and have the capacity to do it again.

• This week, the EU begins a phase-in period for its new carbon border adjustment policy, meaning US companies importing products like steel or aluminum will have to collect and report their carbon emissions while aligning with EU-established standards. What could this mean for American businesses? Our newest memo spells it out.

• Allyson Chiu, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement in The Washington Post discuss growing support amongst Americans to build renewable technologies like wind and solar in their communities.
• Jeanna Smialek in The New York Times explains the magnetic ability of the Inflation Reduction Act to attract private capital and the opportunity this presents for local investors in Wyoming.
• Stephen Lacey in Carbon Copy, sits with Maria Gallucci of Canary Media and Katherine Hamilton of 38 North to discuss ongoing labor disputes in the auto industry and the essential role today’s automakers will play in the transition to EVs.