JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning | China’s greying population is refusing to save for retirement | Ukraine Is Losing Eastern European Allies | London Stock Exchange CEO says the U.K. has itself to blame for not attracting senior talent due to lower pay: 'We’ve hamstrung ourselves'

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JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for 20% market plunge, delivers recession warning - CNBC

According to the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer, high interest rates are creating a breaking point for stocks â and choosing cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy right now.

"I'm not sure how we're going to avoid it [recession] if we stay at this level of interest rates," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday.

The S&P 500 closed at 4,258.19 on Thursday and is on the cusp of a five-week losing streak. The index is down more than 5% over the past month.

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China’s greying population is refusing to save for retirement - The Economist

Hongbaos are usually reserved for special occasions, such as birthdays, weddings and the Chinese mid-autumn festival, which got under way on September 29th. But now these red envelopes, stuffed with cash, are part of a push by China’s banks to get citizens thinking about retirement. They are being offered to customers who register for private-pension accounts.

Under a law introduced last November, workers may set aside savings in tax-deferred accounts accessible upon retirement, much like America’s Individual Retirement Accounts (iras). Those who want to enrol must open an account with a bank, before allocating their deposits to a licensed wealth manager. Savers can deduct contributions from taxable income; they pay no tax on capital gains and only a 3% tax rate at the time of distribution.

If these terms sound attractive, it is because officials cannot afford for the scheme to fail. Chinese workers retire young—as early as 50 for women and 60 for men. Last year the population shrank for the first time since Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” in 1962, even as the number of old folk grew. China’s compulsory basic pension, which has more than a billion enrollees and is paid for through employer contributions, will be in deficit by 2028 and run out entirely by 2035, according to modelling by an official think-tank.

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Ukraine Is Losing Eastern European Allies - The Atlantic

The weekend of September 30 marked an ominous turning point in international support for Ukraine—not just in Washington, D.C., but in two of the beleaguered country’s once-staunch supporters in Eastern Europe.

On the 30th, the now former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy made an eleventh-hour budget deal to avoid a government shutdown, conditional on zeroing out U.S. support for Ukraine. The same day, halfway around the world, voters in Slovakia handed a major electoral victory to the party of the corrupt, pro-Russian conspiracy theorist Robert Fico, who campaigned on the rousing slogan “Not a single round”—meaning, no more ammunition from Slovakia for Ukraine.

Slovakia, though small, was one of the first NATO countries to provide armed assistance to Ukraine and has been a xxxxxx of logistical support. And yet, as the European Commission’s digital-affairs czar explained at a press conference in late September, “Slovakia has been chosen [by Russia] as the country where there is fertile soil for success of the Russian pro-Kremlin, pro-war narratives.” Fico—known for resigning as prime minister in disgrace in 2018, after the assassination of a journalist who was investigating his associates—has repeatedly blamed Ukraine for Russia’s full-scale invasion, parroting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda about “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists.” The weekend’s vote was deeply divided: Fico’s party won just 23 percent. But Slovakia’s president has tapped him to lead the country’s coalition government, which will likely seek to divest from Ukraine and push Slovakia into Putin’s waiting embrace.

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London Stock Exchange CEO says the U.K. has itself to blame for not attracting senior talent due to lower pay: 'We’ve hamstrung ourselves' - Fortune

The metaphoric tug-of-war between the U.S. and the U.K. has heated up in recent years with British companies moving across the Atlantic to list publicly. A related hurdle has been with luring executive talent as London’s pay standards are far lower in comparison to some parts of the world, such as New York.

London Stock Exchange’s CEO has been vocal about the need to up the U.K.’s pay packages for executives if it hopes to compete with global players. In an interview for Bloomberg’s In the City podcast, LSE’s Julia Hoggett emphasized the challenges that lower executive pay standards pose.

“We’ve hamstrung ourselves from creating a level playing field with which to compete with the rest of the world,” she said in a podcast episode published Wednesday.

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