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Welcome to the Monday, March 2, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Wisconsin’s Supreme Court spring primary sees highest turnout in 20 years
- Biden wins South Carolina primary Saturday, Super Tuesday up next
- California’s 25th District to hold two primaries Tuesday
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Wisconsin’s Supreme Court spring primary sees highest turnout in 20 years
States hold elections throughout the year. In fact, not a month goes by that our staff isn’t covering some election, somewhere. Wisconsin has a standard cadence of spring elections—primarily for municipal and state supreme court elections. This year was no different. Last month, the Badger State held its statewide primary, with one state supreme court seat on the ballot. Three candidates vied for the seat, with two advancing to the April general election (more on that race in the weeks ahead). This regular format allows for some interesting year-over-year comparisons.
This year was the seventh since 2000 with a contested state supreme court primary, that is, with three or more candidates on the ballot. Voter turnout for the primary was the highest of any of these years, with just under 704,000 voters participating. The next-highest primary turnout was in 2016 when 567,000 voters showed up to the polls. We used data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, which lists results online for all elections in the state going back to 2000.
Incumbent Daniel Kelly and challenger Jill Karofsky advanced from the Feb. 18 nonpartisan primary. Kelly received 50.1% of the vote to Karofsky's 37.2%, with third-place finisher Ed Fallone receiving 12.7%.
Although the race is officially nonpartisan, Kelly is a member of the court's conservative majority and received support from conservative groups. Karofsky said she would join the court's liberal minority and received support from liberal groups.
Primaries are held for Wisconsin Supreme Court judgeships if more than two candidates file to run, with the top-two finishers advancing to the general election. There have been 15 previous Wisconsin Supreme Court elections since 2000, and six of them required primaries.
Higher voter turnout in the primaries has usually been associated with higher general election turnout. In 2016, which had this highest primary turnout before this year, 1.95 million people voted in the spring general election—the highest number during this period. The lowest spring primary turnout was in 2003— with 278,000 voters—and was followed by the lowest spring general election turnout in any year where a primary was held. This year’s April 7 general election coincides with Wisconsin’s presidential primaries on that same day.
One candidate received a majority of the spring primary vote in three of six primaries held in Wisconsin since 2000. In all three, that candidate went on to win the general election. If Kelly’s primary win follows this pattern, his re-election would preserve the current 5-2 conservative majority on the court. The ideological balance of the court would remain until at least 2026, assuming that no justices leave the bench early. A win for Karofsky would narrow the conservative majority to 4-3 and would mean that an election to decide control of the court would be expected to occur in 2023.
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Biden wins South Carolina primary, Super Tuesday up next
Joe Biden won the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary on Saturday, which was the last presidential nominating event before this week’s Super Tuesday voting. According to unofficial results, Biden received 48% of the vote and Bernie Sanders was second with 20%. Tom Steyer finished third with 11%. After the results were reported on Saturday, Steyer announced he was ending his presidential campaign. Sunday evening, Pete Buttigieg announced he would end his campaign.
Fifty-four pledged delegates were at stake in South Carolina. Biden is projected to win at least 35 of those delegates. Sanders is expected to win at least 13.
Biden won the popular vote in all 46 counties in South Carolina, including the state's five Pivot Counties—Barnwell, Calhoun, Chester, Colleton, and McCormick. Raw voter turnout in these five counties was up compared with the 2016 Democratic primary, ranging from an increase of less than one percent in Barnwell County to a 32.6% increase in McCormick County, according to unofficial returns. Approximately 373,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in 2016. Roughly 530,000 ballots were cast on Saturday.
The South Carolina Republican Party voted on September 7, 2019, to cancel its presidential primary.
After Saturday’s results, Sanders and Biden enter Super Tuesday leading the Democratic presidential candidates in pledged delegates. To date, 155 pledged delegates—3.9% of the total—have been allocated. Tomorrow—Super Tuesday—1,344 delegates will be allocated from nominating events in 14 states and American Samoa. Among them are the country's two most populous states—California and Texas.
Need to know where your polling place is and when it closes? Here’s a handy list of links to how you can find your voting poll location, including when the polls close in the local time zone.
- Alabama: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- American Samoa: Poll closing time does not apply; Democrats in American Samoa are holding a caucus on March 3. Click here for more information.
- Arkansas: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- California: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Colorado: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Maine: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Massachusetts: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Minnesota: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Oklahoma: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Tennessee: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. for counties in the central time zone and 8:00 p.m. for counties in the eastern time zone. Click here to find your polling place and additional voter information.
- Texas: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional information.
- Utah: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional information.
- Vermont: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional information.
- Virginia: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time. Click here to find your polling place and additional information.
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California’s 25th District to hold two primaries Tuesday
Last week, we brought you five days of Super Tuesday previews, looking at the non-presidential races of note on one of the heaviest days of the election cycle. Today, a bonus batch of two races. In California’s 25th Congressional District, voters will cast ballots in, not one, but two top-two primary elections for the same seat.
One primary is for the special election to fill the seat vacated by Katie Hill (D), who resigned November 1, 2019. The top two finishers in that race will advance to a May 12 election. The winner will complete the remainder of Hill’s term. The other primary is for the district’s regularly scheduled election, and the top-two finishers in that race will advance to the general election on Nov. 3. Ten candidates are running in both elections, so it will be possible for voters to select the same candidate twice or choose two different candidates.
The special election is one of nine that have been called during the 116th Congress. Seven such elections are for U.S. House seats and two—in Arizona and Georgia—are for U.S. Senate seats. After Tuesday, the next special elections will be on April 28 in Maryland’s 7th District and New York’s 27th.
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