Washington, D.C. (March 2, 2020) – A new report by the Center for Immigration Studies shows the negative fiscal impact of refugee resettlement, estimating that the average refugee will cost around $60,000 in net present value over his or her lifetime, with adult refugees costing upwards of $133,000. Although refugees from earlier generations were often well-educated, today's refugees have fewer than nine years of schooling on average. Because of their low earning power and immediate access to welfare benefits, recent refugees cost the government substantially more than they contribute in taxes, even over the long term.
 
Dr. Steven Camarota, the Center's director of research and co-author of the report, said, "The low education attainment level of so many of today's refugees means they need a great deal of government assistance.  Given these costs, policymakers have to decide if it makes more sense to settle a modest number here or help many more people overseas." 
 
The key points: 
 

• The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine developed a model that estimates the lifetime fiscal impact of new immigrants, counting all taxes paid and services consumed at the federal, state, and local levels. Educational attainment is the most important predictor in the model. Generally speaking, highly educated immigrants will contribute more in taxes than they consume in services, while immigrants with low levels of education will contribute less than they consume.

 

• Based on data from the Annual Survey of Refugees, one-third of refugees between the ages of 25 and 64 completed no more than the sixth grade before their arrival in the U.S. About 53 percent have less than a high school diploma. Only 18 percent have education beyond high school.

 

• When we apply the education levels of refugees to the National Academies' fiscal model, we find that the average refugee will cost about $36,000 in net present value over his or her lifetime. (Conceptually, "present value" means that all of the lifetime costs have been consolidated into a single upfront payment.)

 

• Because the National Academies model is based on all immigrants at each education level, some adjustments are required for refugees who, unlike most immigrants, impose administrative costs for resettlement and can access welfare payments immediately. After these adjustments, our cost estimate rises to $60,000 per refugee.

 

• Although the fiscal impact of refugees is negative overall, it differs significantly across age groups. Refugees who enter as adults (age 25 and over) have a large negative impact under every plausible model. Refugees who enter as children may have a positive impact, although this requires optimistic assumptions about mobility.

 

• Policymakers need to consider whether resettlement in the U.S. is the best way to help displaced people. Perhaps overseas assistance would be a more efficient use of limited public resources.