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Attempts to make supply chains “resilient” are likely to fail - The Economist   

Napoleon bonaparte did not have semiconductor supply chains in mind when he suggested that “the torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided”. But his comment still rings true 200 years on. Governments and companies now say they want to protect themselves from disruptions, whether the vicissitudes of global markets or deliberate weaponisation by leaders like Vladimir Putin. They fear that at any moment China could try something similar, cutting the West off from crucial goods or components. In practice, however, the drive to rework supply chains will have vastly more costs than benefits.

A battery of buzzwords describes the plan. Some politicians want to “decouple” from China. Others speak of “derisking”, focusing efforts instead on the one-third of total trade deemed to be “strategic”. “China-plus-one” is a new boardroom mantra, which says that a business should supplement a Chinese supplier with a non-Chinese backup. “Friendshoring”, in some cases via “nearshoring”, can help achieve these goals.

These plans seek to rework a global trading system which, in the years before the pandemic, had focused relentlessly—and successfully—on efficiency. In Britain, the average cash price of durable goods such as televisions and tables, which are largely imported, fell by 15% from 2001 to 2016. Cheaper consumer goods raised real incomes, especially for the poor. Trade also massively expanded the variety of goods on offer.

Continued here








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