China's growing nuclear arsenal. North Korea's rapid and sophisticated nuclear program development. Russia's nuclear saber-rattling in Ukraine. These emerging threats have led some to argue that the United States needs to expand its own nuclear arsenal.
But how much nuclear capability is “enough” for U.S. nuclear forces to deter potential adversaries and reassure allies? RAND's Edward Geist tackles this question in a new paper.
“Deterrence is difficult,” he writes, “because it is about perceptions and resolve rather than just pure numbers.” To start, potential adversaries need to perceive that the United States has “enough” nuclear weapons to deter them. Further, adversaries need to perceive that U.S. officials believe that the United States has “enough” to ensure that Washington will not falter in the face of provocation or coercion.
About 50 percent of men actively looking for work in tight labor markets have an adult conviction, most commonly for a misdemeanor. Connecting these individuals to jobs benefits both them and society, but some employers are hesitant to hire people with criminal records. RAND researchers conducted an experiment to see how modest financial incentives—tax credits, for example—might change this. They found that incentives reduced the negative effects of an applicant’s criminal record by three to eight percentage points, depending on the type of conviction. Read more »
The spread of misinformation on topics such as climate change and vaccines has serious consequences. This problem is only exacerbated by the rise of deepfakes—AI-based methods of altering videos and photos. In a new RAND survey of students, educators, and the general adult public, we found that 27 to 50 percent of people cannot distinguish authentic videos from deepfakes. These results highlight the need for education on deepfake detection, especially as this technology gets better at producing highly realistic content. Read more »
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