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**OCTOBER 2, 2023**
On the Prospect website
* Gabrielle Gurley: Democratic prospects in the South
* Harold Meyerson: Why COLAs are not enough
* Vishal Shankar: Yet another Clarence Thomas conflict of interest
Kuttner on TAP
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**** Odd Couple: Democrats and Kevin McCarthy
Should House Democrats save McCarthy's Speakership?
House Democrats now face a weird strategic choice-whether to save
Kevin McCarthy's Speakership and what to demand in return. The
Democrats, justifiably, loathe McCarthy and don't trust his word. To
appease his far right, he went back on his budget agreement negotiated
with President Biden last May to solve a contrived debt crisis. And he
has gone along with a totally bogus impeachment witch hunt against
Biden.
Florida Republican Matt Gaetz vows he will file a motion to vacate the
Speakership. Gaetz, who has a personal vendetta against McCarthy, has
said he will keep filing such motions until he succeeds. McCarthy says,
bring it on.
At this writing, it is not clear whether Gaetz (who is at least as
unpopular with his colleagues as McCarthy is) will have the votes. But
the likelihood over the medium term is that McCarthy's survival will
depend on the votes of Democrats. Those votes were the only way McCarthy
could pass an extension of government funding
,
as Republicans couldn't come up with their own funding bill.
The situation raises several intriguing questions. What should Democrats
demand in exchange for a de facto governing coalition with McCarthy and
at least some of the less extremist Republicans, and what could they
plausibly get? The first demand is to restore the funding for Ukraine
that McCarthy stripped from the continuing resolution that kept the
government open. But if McCarthy delivered that, it would enrage more of
the Republican ultras, and produce more votes for Gaetz.
And what are the risks for Democrats of a deal with McCarthy? One risk
is that such a deal will splinter the Democrats, who need above all
unity. There are many Democrats, including most of the Congressional
Progressive Caucus, who say they will not vote for McCarthy under any
circumstances. But centrist Democrats, who promote a bipartisanship that
is entirely illusory under current circumstances, like the idea.
Even if Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sought to whip his caucus to
vote as a bloc, it's doubtful that he could succeed. Jeffries, who
excoriated McCarthy's untrustworthiness in an impromptu
mini-filibuster buying time for the caucus to debate whether to take
McCarthy's eleventh-hour deal, is keeping his own counsel while Gaetz
tries to round up votes.
The other problem for Democrats is that this drama is endless.
Republicans will pull variations of the shut-down-the-government stunt
several times in coming months. Congress will have to do this all over
again before November 17, when the continuing resolution expires.
In addition, appropriations for the new fiscal year still must work
their way through various subcommittees, and the money being approved by
House Republicans falls far short of what was agreed to in McCarthy's
deal to keep the government open. This way, McCarthy insidiously tries
to have it both ways: give the Democrats a continuing resolution to keep
spending roughly at current levels, while taking that away and appeasing
the far right via cuts in appropriations.
A de facto, very unstable coalition between McCarthy and the Democrats
is one possibility. A better coalition is an agreement between Democrats
and non-MAGA Republicans to elect one of the few moderate Republicans as
Speaker, with Democratic support.
~ ROBERT KUTTNER
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The 'Dobbs' Strategy Heads South
Gubernatorial elections this fall in Kentucky, Mississippi, and
Louisiana may clarify where Democrats can, and can't, run on abortion.
BY GABRIELLE GURLEY
COLAs Are Great, but Woefully Insufficient
Adjusting wages to the rising costs of living, as the UAW is demanding,
is necessary, but the gap between investment income and wages will still
keep rising. BY HAROLD MEYERSON
Clarence Thomas Has Yet Another Huge Conflict of Interest
Revolving Door Project research reveals that right-wing elites in the
Horatio Alger Association stand to benefit from a lawsuit attempting to
destroy the CFPB. The group has close ties to Clarence Thomas. BY VISHAL
SHANKAR
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