Hello GREAT Burdick for Congress supporters,
I have some great news to report in two areas, especially for our great supporters who are very active in the local Sanders and Warren campaigns.
First, a little more than a week ago we asked you to reach out to local media and request they finally start covering this primary race. Many of you answered that call to incredible effect. Thank you very much for that. This resulted in at least two concrete happenings. No. 1, we forced Capital Public Radio into accidentally admitting that, yes, they have been operating a news blackout on our race. That story here.<[link removed]> It was personally very disheartening for me as a former journalist and huge NPR supporter, but it’s always better to know something for certain and take action accordingly. And you never know, this may shame CapRadio later on, if we make Top 2 in the primary.
But I believe all of your great calls/emails did lead to KCRA TV finally calling to interview me. That piece will be a roundup of all the CA-7 candidates. We don’t have an air date at the moment, but we're hoping it runs this weekend or Monday. We’ll let you know when we hear.
Second – and this is more actionable for you – the campaign has analyzed some excellent new polling data that shows Burdick for Congress’s chances to finish Top 2 have… expanded. I’ll share that data below, but keep in mind, taking advantage of this data does require all of us to amplify our message and reach as many possible voters in the final days of the primary campaign. This can be on social media, with any phone canvassing or tabling you’re doing, and in any other form. (If you are looking for content to readily share, visit our Facebook page here<[link removed]> and our Twitter page here<[link removed]>. If you need handout materials or signs, let us know.)
The new polling data shows the Progressive base in our district will be higher than even I had determined nine months ago when I declared my candidacy. What the late February Berkeley IGS Poll released Friday<[link removed]> shows is a combined 51% of statewide Democratic primary votes going to Bernie Sanders (33.7%) and Elizabeth Warren (17.3%). This includes votes from independent/unaffiliated voters, who also combined for 51% for Sanders and Warren, though with a far more decided tilt toward Sanders (40.3% to 11.3%). Also 7.6% were undecided.
This poll provided some city and regional breakdowns, but not for Sacramento or the CA-7 alone. Sacramento is included in the Central Valley region, where Sanders and Warren combined for 47%. (Sanders 32.7%; Warren 14.4%.) This 47% combines Sacramento, Fresno, Modesto, Redding, Bakersfield and rural areas. I would expect the CA-7's share to be above this average, but of course, we don’t know exactly how much higher.
But if we calculate based on these poll figures and the current voter registration splits of 39% D, 31% R, and 30% Independent, then you get an approximation of my reasonable universe of potential voters. This results in 34% to 37% of the overall predicted CA-7 primary electorate. Now, I can’t expect to get all of this vote, even if I had 100% name recognition. On the other hand, we aren't including other Democrats and Independents who may vote for a moderate presidential candidate but for me. But bottomline, the chances of my getting a 20% to 25% share of all votes remains possible – and this should be enough to win us a Top 2 spot.
But there are no guarantees. Which is to say we should expect a dogfight to outpoll the top vote-getting Republican, but if we can amplify our message, our universe of potential votes is nicely larger than expected. Which is why all the help you can provide to remind your contacts, Social Media circles, etc. is so vital at this time.
Thank you again for all your support to this point, and let us know if you need anything else in these final important primary days.
Sincerely,
Jeff Burdick
BurdickForCongress.com
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