[1]

September 29, 2023

This month’s newsletter features updates to a report estimating how quickly
Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal as well as
a table tracking Iran’s centrifuge models and their deployment at declared
uranium enrichment sites. Both resources reflect new data from the most
recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports.

The newsletter also includes profiles of Iranian universities that have
collaborated with foreign researchers to benefit Iran’s military drone
program, as well as news about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC)’s launch of a new imaging satellite, Iran’s barring of several IAEA
inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program, and the release of five
American detainees in exchange for the unfreezing of Iranian funds held
abroad. Additions to the Iran Watch library include European countries’
statements on maintaining sanctions set to expire at the United Nations,
reports and official reactions from the most recent IAEA board meeting, and
new sanctions announcements.

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PUBLICATIONS

[4]Centrifuges

Centrifuges at an enrichment facility in Iran. (Credit: Tasnim News Agency)

Report | [5]Iran's Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Iran’s uranium stockpile has reached the point at which, within about three
weeks, Iran might be able to amass enough weapons-grade uranium for five
fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however,
it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a
successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium.
This timetable estimates how quickly Iran could enrich enough uranium for
five implosion-type warheads under various scenarios.

[6]READ THE REPORT

Table | [7]Iran's Centrifuges: Models and Status

Iran has developed and deployed advanced centrifuge models that can enrich
greater amounts of uranium using fewer machines relative to its original
IR-1 design. Iran’s increasing mastery of centrifuge design and operation
raises the risk of both nuclear “breakout” and “sneakout” scenarios and
reflects an acquisition of knowledge that cannot be reversed.

[8]VIEW THE TABLE

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

Several Iranian universities have conducted research relevant to Iran’s
military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program, and some have done so in
collaboration with researchers based in Western countries.

[9]Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM)

In 2019, faculty conducted research on fuel injection systems for a
two-stroke UAV engine in collaboration with Shahrood University of
Technology and a scientist at a university in the United Kingdom; in 2020,
faculty studied UAV guidance in cooperation with the [10]University of
Tehran and a scientist at a university in Australia; has also supported
research relevant to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

[11]LEARN MORE

[12]Shahrood University of Technology

In 2023, faculty conducted research on UAV communication and positioning in
collaboration with a scientist at a university in Canada; in 2016,
researchers studied UAV actuators and sensors in cooperation with
scientists at universities in the United States; has also supported
research relevant to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

[13]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[14]Iranian satellite launch

The launch of the Noor-3 satellite atop a Qased space launch vehicle.
(Credit: Javan Online)

[15]Iran Says it has Successfully Launched an Imaging Satellite into Orbit
amid Tensions with the West | Associated Press

September 27, 2023: Iran successfully placed an imaging satellite dubbed
Noor-3 into low-earth orbit, according to state media. Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted the launch from what appeared to
be its launch facility at Shahroud.

[16]US-Bound Plane Leaves Doha with Five Americans Freed by Iran | Reuters

September 18, 2023: Five Americans who had been detained in Iran departed
the country and returned to the United States after a brief stopover in
Doha, Qatar. Iran released the detainees after the United States unfroze $6
billion in Iranian funds held in South Korean banks and granted clemency to
five Iranians who had been charged with crimes in the United States.

[17]UN Nuclear Agency Slams Iran for Barring 'Several' Inspectors from
Monitoring its Program | Associated Press

September 16, 2023: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director
General Rafael Grossi said that the Iranian government had revoked the
credentials of about one-third of the Agency's group of inspectors
stationed in Iran, preventing some of its most experienced personnel from
monitoring the Iranian nuclear program. Grossi condemned the move and said
it "constitutes an unnecessary blow to an already strained relationship
between the IAEA and Iran."

FROM THE LIBRARY

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom said they would maintain certain
nuclear- and missile-related restrictions on Iran which were due to be
lifted on October 18 pursuant to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA).
* France and Germany said in a [18]joint statement that their decision,
which likely ensures the sanctions’ continuation in EU law, is “fully
compliant with the JCPOA” and “does not amount to … triggering the snapback
mechanism” - September 14.
* In [19]a separate statement, the United Kingdom said it had committed
to bringing the current UN sanctions on Iran into UK law so as to ensure
they remain binding on UK nationals after October - September 14.

Iran avoided punitive action by the IAEA Board of Governors at its
quarterly meeting despite several unresolved issues related to its nuclear
program.
* An [20]IAEA report released ahead of the meeting showed that Iran’s
stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% had grown, albeit at a slower pace
compared to previous periods - September 4.
* A [21]separate report on Iran’s safeguards commitments reported “no
progress” on resolving outstanding issues since the last report - September
4.
* Sixty-three countries signed onto [22]a joint statement calling on Iran
to fulfill its safeguards obligations, while [23]Russia, China, Iran, and
six other aligned countries issued a statement casting Iran’s interactions
with the IAEA in a more positive light - September 13.

The United States announced new sanctions on Iran’s military programs and
took steps to enforce existing sanctions.
* The Treasury Department [24]announced sanctions against a supplier
network providing parts for Iran’s Shahed-series one-way attack drones -
September 27.
* A [25]second package targeted suppliers in China, Russia, and Turkey
that have facilitated the shipments to and transactions with [26]Iran
Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (HESA) - September 19.
* The Justice Department [27]announced that it had seized one million
barrels of Iranian crude oil from the Suez Rajan tanker and that the
operator of the ship had pleaded guilty to violating sanctions - September
8.

[28]Australia, [29]Canada, [30]the United States, and [31]the United
Kingdom announced targeted human rights sanctions on the anniversary of the
death of Mahsa Amini.
* The United States included Fars News Agency, Press TV, and Tasnim News
Agency [32]in its designations - September 15.
* The United Kingdom [33]added Arvan Cloud, an internet company already
designated by the European Union and United States, to its sanctions list -
September 15.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2023 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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