Dear John,

Did you watch last night’s Republican presidential debate? The last question of the night pointed to the fundamental flaws in our single-choice elections:

“If you all stay in the race, former President Donald Trump wins the nomination. None of you have indicated that you’re dropping out. So, which one of you on stage tonight should be voted off the island?”

Imagine if our presidential primaries used ranked choice voting (RCV)!

Instead of effectively asking candidates “which of your competitors is the worst,” the moderator could ask: “Who is your second choice?” Also:

• Candidates wouldn’t be pressured to drop out of the race to prevent vote-splitting – months before a single vote has been cast.
• A candidate could win with a majority of the party behind them – even with over a dozen candidates in the race. 
• Voters who cast early ballots for candidates who then drop out wouldn’t see their votes go to waste.
• Voters could vote honestly, not strategically. No more worrying about whether to vote for their favorite candidate, or a candidate they think can win.

The good news? Ranked choice voting has already been used in some states’ presidential primaries, and that will continue in 2024!

Read on:

• To see the results of our ranked choice GOP primary poll,
• To find out which Republican Party is already planning to use RCV in 2024, and 
• To learn how RCV improved Democratic primaries in 2020.

RCV poll provides insights on 2024 field

WPA Intelligence and FairVote fielded a national poll of 800 likely Republican presidential primary voters following the first Republican presidential debate in August.

The ranked choice poll provides more information than a single-choice poll on voter preferences, including voters’ backup choices and which candidate they prefer if their favorite drops out of the race.

Key takeaways:

• Donald Trump leads with 49% of voters’ first-choices, and remains the clear front-runner.
• Nine candidates are eliminated before Trump reaches a majority of votes, showing that voters who don’t pick Trump as their first choice rarely pick him as their second choice.
• When the race is run down to two candidates, Trump beats Ron DeSantis head-to-head (56%-44%).
• DeSantis (47%) and Vivek Ramaswamy (28%) are by far the most common second choices for Trump voters.
• Republican voters are open to ranked choice voting, with 45% in support and 36% opposed.

Notably, Nikki Haley gains more support than anyone else when Tim Scott is eliminated, suggesting South Carolina Republicans are divided between their home-state favorites and would consolidate around the stronger option if given the chance. In last night’s debate, Haley and Scott confronted each other over niche issues, like a 10-cent gas tax increase in South Carolina. Both seem to have concluded that in the single-choice race, it’s crucial to tear down anyone they could “split the vote” with rather than highlight areas of agreement.

With ranked choice polling, we can also see how each candidate performs head-to-head against each of their opponents, and identify “consensus candidates” frequently ranked among voters’ top choices (for example, the number of voters who rank Trump or DeSantis in their top 3 or top 5).

See more findings from the poll on FairVote’s website. FairVote is planning to field another poll soon to see how voters’ views changed after the second debate.

Virgin Islands GOP embraces RCV

The Republican Party in the Virgin Islands recently announced its plans to use ranked choice voting for its 2024 presidential caucus. U.S. territories don’t get to vote in presidential general elections, so the primaries are voters’ only chance to weigh in on our nation’s leader. RCV will let them make the most of it.

With RCV, Virgin Islands Republicans won’t have to worry about voting strategically like voters elsewhere in the country, and whoever wins the territory’s delegates will have the clear support of the party behind them. So far, leading candidates including Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Haley have filed for the Virgin Islands RCV primary. 

“Given the large field of presidential candidates, I encourage my fellow Republican state party chairmen to support ranked-choice voting in the primaries and caucuses. A presidential nominee supported by a majority—not a plurality!—of voters is best-positioned to win in Nov 2024.” – Gordon Ackley, Chairman of the Republican Party in the Virgin Islands

RCV in Democratic presidential primaries

Republicans aren’t the only ones embracing RCV. Five state Democratic parties used RCV in their 2020 presidential primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters, and Nevada for early voters.

RCV made more votes count, and gave voters the freedom to vote with their hearts. Across the primary season, over 3 million Democrats "wasted" their votes on candidates who dropped out before Primary Day. That wasn't the case in RCV states, where your vote would simply count for your second choice if your favorite dropped out!

Almost three in four voters chose to rank multiple candidates on their ballots, even though Joe Biden was already the presumptive nominee by the time most RCV states voted. This shows voters were enthusiastic about the option to rank candidates, and found ranking their ballots simple!  

The future of RCV in presidential primaries

The Virgin Islands Republican caucus will be held no later than March 2, and Maine plans to use RCV in its Democratic and Republican state-run primaries on March 5 (Super Tuesday). We also expect many of the state Democratic parties that used RCV last time to use it again this time, though they’re still finalizing their plans. We’re excited to see RCV in action in all those places and beyond!

To support our work bringing RCV to presidential primaries and more, please consider a donation to FairVote Action. With your help, we’ll make elections fairer for every American.

Sincerely,
Brian Cannon
FairVote Action Director of Advocacy