Daily News Brief

September 28, 2023

Top of the Agenda

After thirty-two years of pushing for independent statehood from Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist (FT) on January 1, 2024, its leader said in a decree yesterday. The announcement confirms the breakaway region’s full defeat by Azerbaijan in a swift military operation last week, as the decree prompted the region’s population to “familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration” with Azerbaijan. 

For more than three decades, Nagorno-Karabakh survived as an ethnic Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, in part due to backing from Russia. But the war in Ukraine and Russia’s search for closer ties with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey altered the power balance. Russia ordered its peacekeepers to stand aside during last week’s military assault, the New York Times reported. While Azerbaijan says it will peacefully reintegrate ethnic Armenians who choose to stay, many say they do not trust that pledge (Reuters). More than half of the region’s residents have now crossed over to Armenia, with more expected to follow. 

Analysis

“The decree brings to an end one of the most enduring frozen conflicts in the former Soviet space, as well as dissolving the elected government that ruled the territory—a region that had all the trappings of statehood,” the Wall Street Journal’s Thomas Grove writes.

“September’s return to violence is also a reminder of the failure of well-meaning but often halfhearted Western efforts to establish a European security and rights framework for the South Caucasus,” Carnegie Europe’s Thomas de Waal writes for Foreign Affairs. 

Pacific Rim

North Korea expelled Travis King (BBC) after having detained him for two months when he crossed the border in July. An unnamed U.S. official said his release was the product of “intense diplomacy.”

Taiwan: Taipei unveiled its first domestically built submarine (Nikkei) as part of efforts to bolster its defense capabilities.

South and Central Asia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to meet (India Today) with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar today in Washington. The two officials are expected to discuss Canada’s probe into the Indian government’s potential involvement in the June killing of a Canadian Sikh activist. 

At this CFR meeting, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar discusses U.S.-India relations and Indian diplomacy.

Bangladesh/Europe: European shipping companies are knowingly dumping toxic waste on Bangladeshi beaches, according to a new Human Rights Watch report. The report calls for European countries to revise their policies and improve investments in waste disposal and workers’ rights. 

Middle East and North Africa

The United States will offer entry (NPR) to Israeli tourists and businesspeople without a visa in exchange for Israel ending bans and restrictions on the entry of Palestinian Americans and other Arab Americans. The policy, negotiated over the last year and a half, will go into effect on November 30.

U.S./Egypt: U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) pleaded not guilty (Bloomberg) to federal charges that he accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, gold bars, and a Mercedes convertible in exchange for illegally giving Egyptian officials “highly sensitive” information about the U.S. embassy in Cairo. He has pushed back against growing calls for him to resign.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The government said it has made at least four arrests (BBC) after an attempted uprising on Tuesday and is searching for other suspects. The current leadership itself took over in a 2022 putsch, the country’s second that year amid the rising threat from Islamist insurgents. 

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare writes about the emergence of the latest generation of African coupists. 

Tanzania: Climate change-induced water shortages and maintenance problems are causing power shortages and rationing (Reuters) across Tanzania, the state power supplier said. The country’s energy supply is mostly made up of natural gas and hydropower. 

Europe

Germany’s interior minister yesterday announced temporary checks to crack down on human smugglers (Politico) after a rise in the number of people requesting asylum in the country during 2023. In the first eight months of the year, some 204,000 people requested asylum in Germany, a 77 percent increase from the same period in 2022.

Americas

Climate change and the El Niño weather pattern have caused a severe drought (Reuters) that has killed masses of fish, disrupted river transport routes, and threatened food and water shortages, Environment and Climate Change Minister Marina Silva said. 

This Backgrounder by Claire Klobucista and CFR’s Kali Robinson details how climate change is intensifying water scarcity globally. 

Colombia: A special court investigating abuses during Colombia’s civil conflict found that more than 35,000 people suffered sexual, gender, and reproductive violence (Reuters) between 1957 and 2016. Provisional analysis found that right-wing paramilitary groups committed the highest portion of such crimes, followed by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas and members of the security forces.

United States

At a televised debate between Republican presidential candidates in California yesterday, candidates were split (WaPo) over whether to keep supporting Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Poll frontrunner and former President Donald Trump, who did not participate in the debate, has said he would cut a deal (CNN) with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to end the war in twenty-four hours.

In this In Brief, CFR expert Max Boot explains what Ukraine needs to win the war. 

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