From David Dayen, The American Prospect <[email protected]>
Subject Dayen on TAP: Menendez Loses the Senate
Date September 26, 2023 7:42 PM
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SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

On the Prospect website

* Luke Goldstein on the unprecedented secrecy in the Google antitrust
trial

* David Dayen on the picket line with striking UAW workers

in Southern California

* Bob Kuttner talks to Susan Linn about Big Tech's marketing to
children

* Jeff Hauser on stalwart antitrust regulator Jonathan Kanter

Dayen on TAP

Menendez Loses the Senate

But he can still keep his seat, if Democrats in New Jersey split the
field.

The dam officially burst for Robert Menendez's chances of political
survival at around 11:16 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, when his New
Jersey Senate colleague Cory Booker posted on X
: "The details
of the allegations against Senator Menendez are of such a nature that
the faith and trust of New Jerseyans as well as those he must work with
in order to be effective have been shaken to the core ... I believe
stepping down is best for those Senator Menendez has spent his life
serving."

Until this point, Booker was practically the only holdout among New
Jersey Democratic elected officials on the question of whether Menendez
should resign. The indictment on operatic allegations of hundreds of
thousands of dollars in gifts and bribes (including with gold bars) from
an Egyptian businessman and his associates in exchange for various
official actions is so over the top that even New Jersey's
less-than-scrupulous Democratic machine bosses have mostly ditched him.
Booker himself actually testified as a character witness

in Menendez's first public corruption case, which ended in a mistrial.
"It's almost an understatement to say he was just a partner," Booker
said in that trial, describing Menendez as a mentor and calling him
"honest and trustworthy."

In short, if Menendez has lost Booker, he doesn't have very many
friends left in Democratic politics. Yet, against all odds, he still may
survive this onslaught of pressure, especially if Democrats split the
field against him in next June's Senate primary. If Menendez digs in
and gets multiple challengers, he could take enough of a sliver of the
vote to prevail. As of now, only one challenger, Rep. Andy Kim of South
Jersey, has jumped into the race. But many more are circling.

Booker is one of 18 Senate Democrats to ask for Menendez's
resignation, which would make the primary calculations a whole lot
easier. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) was way out in front over the
weekend, and on Monday Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Peter Welch (D-VT)
followed suit. But Tuesday was the real day of reckoning.

It started with Democratic incumbents in potentially tough re-election
races next year: Jon Tester (D-MT), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Tammy Baldwin
(D-WI), Bob Casey (D-PA). It escalated with Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and
Martin Heinrich (D-NM). Numerous House members had joined the chorus,
including most of the New Jersey delegation and former Speaker Nancy
Pelosi (D-CA).

Then Booker made it safe for everyone else. As Demand Progress policy
director Daniel Schuman noted
,
there's now a "Booker line" among Senate Democrats: Anyone who called
for Menendez's resignation before Booker showed real leadership, and
anyone afterward is piling on late. After Booker, Mark Kelly (D-AZ),
Michael Bennet (D-CO), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY),
Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Ed Markey (D-MA), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and
Maggie Hassan (D-NH) were among those latecomers.

While Warren, Baldwin, and Booker are in leadership, those missing in
action include Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Majority
Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL). Given that Menendez has been adamant about
fighting the charges and refusing to resign, Schumer and Durbin's
silence gives him just a tiny bit of cover. Schumer's initial
statement, stressing that Menendez is innocent until proven guilty and
that everyone should let the process play out, most resembles that of
Sen. Tom Cotton
(R-AR),
who is transparently stating that because he wants Democrats' Menendez
problem to fester. Either that or he's just a consistent supporter of
indicted federal officials.

There aren't a lot of options for Democrats to deal with Menendez if
he doesn't comply. Per the Senate rules, expelling a senator requires
a two-thirds vote, and as Cotton's statement makes clear, Republicans
are disinterested in helping Democrats out with their scandal. A vote
that puts Republicans all on the same side as Menendez might have a
short-term political benefit, but after that fades, the Democratic
senator from New Jersey would still be standing trial for taking bribes.

The way to get Menendez out of the Senate that doesn't rely on his
assent is by voting him out. Kim, a former State Department official who
won a contested House primary where he wasn't the favorite in 2018,
and then won two tough general elections (the seat was made a bit bluer
for 2022), has affirmed
that
he's seeing through a Senate run. But others are circling, including
Tammy Murphy
,
the wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. Reports indicate that she has
been hearing out local and national political operatives about running
for the seat.

If Menendez reverses course and resigns, you can expect a clown-car
primary, with multiple candidates from the state's political machines
and factions. But if Menendez stays in, every other candidate besides
Kim who enters the race makes it more likely that the indicted incumbent
will survive. The only way Menendez can win a primary is with a split
electorate, where he shaves off enough of his former base to eke
through.

Presumably everyone in New Jersey politics knows this, which is why only
Kim has jumped out. It's hard for the various county machines to
coordinate on a candidate when they each have their own favorite sons.
Kim, who's a bit outside the machine-he recently called for an end
to the "county line" system
, a way
that county clerks can favor incumbents by putting challengers way down
the ballot, away from the party line-didn't have to take part in
that process.

Menendez will fight the charges, and maybe even succeed, given how much
the Supreme Court has limited the definition of corruption. Whether his
days as a politician are numbered depends on the actions of a few key
leaders in the Democratic Party.

~ DAVID DAYEN

Follow David Dayen on Twitter

or Bluesky Social

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Google Erects Cone of Silence Around Antitrust Case

The company has successfully closed off testimony and exhibits in the
public trial, limiting public discussion of its monopoly. BY LUKE
GOLDSTEIN

UAW Workers in California Stand Up as Strike Expands

Strikers have twice had guns pulled on them by non-union truckers
seeking to use a distribution center to move auto parts to dealers. BY
DAVID DAYEN

How Big Tech Is Undermining Childhood

A conversation with author and child advocate Susan Linn BY ROBERT
KUTTNER

Google's Fight Against Antitrust Hits a Roadblock

The search giant complained that antitrust regulator Jonathan Kanter
believes in antitrust. Courts didn't buy it. BY JEFF HAUSER

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