Daily News Brief

September 26, 2023

Top of the Agenda

To reach net-zero energy emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F), the world must decrease global fossil fuel demand by a quarter (FT) by 2030 and invest around $4.5 trillion annually in the energy transition by the early 2030s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report [PDF]. It comes as the United Kingdom recently delayed a climate target related to gasoline-powered vehicles, while France announced plans (AP) yesterday to more than double its annual emissions reduction goal. 

This report is the first update of the IEA’s net-zero roadmap for the energy sector since it stunned the oil industry in 2021 when it said that companies should stop all new oil and gas exploration projects in order to have a chance at meeting global warming goals. In the new roadmap, the IEA calculated that between $80 billion and $100 billion per year must go to concessional financing for green projects in low-income countries by the early 2030s to attain the 2050 net-zero target.

Analysis

“As negotiators prepare for COP28, they face a world that is backsliding from the Paris agreement—and the goal of keeping heating below 1.5 degrees Celsius,” CFR expert Alice C. Hill writes for Foreign Affairs.

“The 2030 target [for oil demand falling] is unreachable. Pure and simple. And I think everyone knows it, including nearly everyone a[t] the IEA. Not even at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with billions at home under lockdown and global GDP in free fall, did oil demand drop as much,” Bloomberg’s Javier Blas posts.

Pacific Rim

At a summit for Pacific Island nations in Washington yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he heard the region’s warnings about the dangers of climate change and would ask Congress to approve (AP) the new funding. Last year’s summit saw Washington pledge to provide $810 million in aid to Pacific islands over the next decade.

China/Japan/South Korea: The three countries agreed to hold their first trilateral summit (Nikkei) since 2019 at the “earliest convenient time,” South Korea’s foreign ministry said.

South and Central Asia

New Delhi will delay planned import restrictions on the devices and other hardware and instead will require importers of such hardware to register under its import management system by November 1, Bloomberg reported. Last month, India announced restrictions on laptop and tablet imports as part of efforts to boost local production.  

U.S./India/Sri Lanka: Both the United States and India raised concerns with Sri Lanka over a Chinese research vessel that is due to dock at a Sri Lankan port in October, the Daily Mirror and the Hindu reported. Sri Lanka’s hosting of a Chinese military vessel last year strained ties with India.

Middle East and North Africa

Saudi Arabia is seeking permission to develop its nuclear energy program as part of normalization talks with Israel and said it would expand oversight for the International Atomic Energy Agency into its facilities. Riyadh had previously only allowed (Al-Monitor) partial UN monitoring of its nuclear activities. 

Iran/Iraq: A railroad between the two countries is expected to be completed (Reuters) in eighteen months, a senior Iraqi transport advisor said. The progress on the long-planned project comes as ties between Iran and Iraq continue to improve.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported the outbreaks (AP) in eastern Sudan, where thousands of people are staying in crowded camps as the war between the country’s military and a paramilitary force persists.

Mali: The country’s ruling military junta said that elections that were originally scheduled for February 2024 will be postponed (AFP) due to “technical reasons” but did not announce a new date. 

Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and unnamed U.S. officials confirmed the arrival, which came months ahead of initial estimates. The officials said two platoons were delivered, which generally means between eight and ten tanks, the New York Times reported.

This article by CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow details U.S. aid to Ukraine in six graphics. 

China/EU: China and the European Union (EU) agreed to establish a mechanism (FT) to discuss export controls amid growing trade tensions. The announcement came after Beijing and Washington said they would set up a similar body.

Americas

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña said he would break off talks (FT) if a treaty between the two blocs was not finalized by December 6, when Paraguay will take over the custom union’s rotating presidency, and look to negotiations with Asian nations instead. The EU-Mercosur deal has been under negotiation for more than twenty years.

This Backgrounder looks at Mercosur.

U.S./Mexico: Heightened migration checks at the U.S.-Mexico border have left an estimated $1 billion in goods stranded (Reuters) on the Mexican side over the past week. 

This timeline traces U.S.-Mexico relations.

United States

President Biden will address striking workers (Reuters) in Michigan today amid an ongoing boycott by the United Auto Workers Union. It is the first such action by a U.S. president in at least one hundred years, historians said, and comes amid an uptick in labor organizing in the United States. Separately, a screenwriters union said it reached a tentative deal with studios (AP) yesterday after a five-month strike.

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