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China’s “demographic dividend” appears to be a myth - The Economist   

Since STARTING to open up to market forces in the 1980s China’s economy has grown at a formidable rate. Adjusting for the cost of living, GDP per person has risen ten-fold. But now China faces headwinds. Consumer confidence is low, youth unemployment is high and the economy is on the verge of deflation. On top of this, demography, a factor once credited for the country’s growth, is becoming a handicap.

During the past four decades China’s working-age population grew far faster than the number of young and elderly dependants did. This, in theory, increased the average citizen’s contribution to GDP, a feature often described as the country’s “demographic dividend”. However, a new working paper by Xin Meng of the Australian National University, appears to refute this widely accepted explanation for China’s economic success. Although the share of the country’s population that were of working age surged during this period, the share of people available to work did not.

Dr Meng gathered data from China’s decennial censuses and its between-census surveys between 1982 and 2015. The country does not make up-to-date detailed demographic figures openly available, but it has granted some researchers, of whom Dr Meng is one, access to a subset of the data. These audits contain information on the age, work status, education and hukou (household registration) of a representative sample of the population.

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