Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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**Sept. 21, 2023
Russia’s War in Ukraine: Understanding the Risk of Escalation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Washington, D.C. today. The visit comes as his country's fight to expel Russian invaders continues with no end in sight, and as U.S. lawmakers prepare to vote on another round of defense and humanitarian aid.

The conflict thus far has been highly fluid, with repeated stalemates followed by periodic breakthroughs on both sides. Underlying these shifts is a persistent concern: the risk of an even wider, even more horrific war.

A new RAND report breaks down this risk, analyzing how greater escalation in the conflict, including potential Russian nuclear use, could still occur.

Escalation could happen deliberately--for example, if Russia decided to carry out a limited attack against NATO in Europe, or use nuclear weapons inside Ukraine. It could also occur inadvertently if, for instance, an aggressive Russian maneuver against U.S. surveillance aircraft led to the deaths of U.S. military personnel.

After exploring these and other scenarios, the authors highlight recommendations for Western policymakers. Maintaining NATO cohesion is a critical starting point. Agreement among allies about how much risk to take on is a key to both Ukraine's long-term success and to deterring potential Russian escalation.

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Addressing Food Insecurity Among Veterans

Veterans experiencing food insecurity are less likely than food-insecure nonveterans to be enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. A new RAND study identifies policy options to address this. For example, expanded screening that focuses on veterans who do not receive care through Veterans Affairs, older veterans, and veterans with disabilities could ensure that fewer food-insecure veterans fall through the cracks. Reducing SNAP eligibility requirements, such as income limits, could also help.
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Why Disaster Recovery Costs Are So Hard to Estimate

The initial estimate to rebuild the town of Lahaina following last month's devastating wildfire in Maui is $5.5 billion. This number is too low, says RAND's Aaron Strong, because the math on disaster recovery "isn't a simple sum of the losses." The two main X factors are labor shortages and material shortages in the wake of a disaster, which inevitably make rebuilding slower and more expensive. This shows how large-scale reconstruction projects can fundamentally change local economics, Strong says, in ways that drive costs up, not down.

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** RAND Recommends
- Earlier this week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of being involved in the assassination of a prominent Sikh Canadian leader. RAND's Derek Grossman talked to Time magazine about how Washington might step in (or not).
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- What is the value of a good night's sleep? RAND's Wendy Troxel, a world-renowned sleep expert, breaks down what sleep deprivation means for the U.S. economy in this short Instagram video.
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- In Foreign Policy last week, Christopher Johnstone of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and RAND's Jeffrey Hornung wrote about the significance of the trilateral summit between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
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** Events
Navigating Science- and Technology-Focused Postsecondary Options in the Pittsburgh Region
Tuesday, September 26, 2023 (Online)
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Policy Lab: Building the U.S. Workforce Through Stackable Credentials
Thursday, September 28, 2023 (Online)
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Balancing the Needs of Requesting and Producing Parties: Getting E-Discovery Right
Tuesday and Wednesday, October 3-4, 2023 (Arlington, VA)
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Pardee RAND Admissions Webinar: M.Phil. Overview
October 18, 2023 (Online)
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** Discover the Stories Behind the Research
What are the trade-offs of a four-day school week? How much does insomnia cost the world's major economies? What can be done to help intelligence professionals deal with trauma?

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** About RAND
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.

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