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A SHUTDOWN SIT DOWN
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent

We need just a handful of words to convey the bottom line: Congress is running out of time and, at the moment, heading toward a government shutdown.

With 12 days, including today, until most of the government runs out of money, here are 12 key dynamics at play.

1. The undercurrent: House Republicans and their divide. Think of the GOP’s messy identity crisis in Congress as three connected fights. There’s one over issues, like Ukraine spending. There’s another about tactics, such as whether a government shutdown is acceptable. And a third, overarching melee is about trust, including whether members can trust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. It is a complicated series of broken bones. This is not just hard right versus moderate, but a battle that is more complex. 

2. The deadline: Sept. 30. Lawmakers of all stripes have until this day to pass a funding bill or most government agencies will shut down. A few major programs, like Social Security and Medicare, are automatically funded and not at risk. Congress technically has 13 days to sort out a solution.

3. The most likely solution: a CR. We have been through this together before, readers. You know how this goes. With such little time and deep issues clearly unresolved, this is when Congress gets on its polished cleats and punts. A short-term funding bill, known as a continuing resolution or “CR,” is the way out here. All four leaders of the House and Senate agree on that concept.  

4. The problem: a CR. Remember that complex, radiating fracture inside the House GOP? House Republicans can’t agree among themselves on what a stopgap funding bill should look like. But a small group of members say they cannot ever support what would be the usual solution here —- a simple bill extending current funding. Hard-right leaders on spending, like Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, are drawing a hard line, insisting significant spending cuts happen now. As in … right now. Those who support a CR so far are floating an initial approach (see below) that has no chance of passing the Senate.

5. Underlying issue No. 1: spending. This is not just theatrics. Roy and many Freedom Caucus Republicans are driven by a concern that the U.S. government is drowning in a red ink that will smother future generations. If nothing changes, the U.S. national debt is on track to be the largest ever, relative to the economy, by 2028. Interest payments alone are set to explode to more than $10 trillion total over the next decade, a figure that is hard to fathom. Some Republicans, like Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., believe a short-term shutdown is worth raising as a way to confront the longer-term crisis.

6. Underlying issue No. 2: Defense. Democrats don’t disagree with Republicans about the spending problem. But they see a system and society that is skewed toward the powerful and wealthy. They believe government needs to try to balance the scales by raising taxes on the privileged and spending in social areas. This is a classic, long-running divide. But it is important here because, while House Republicans are crusading against deficits, they are using this funding cliff to push their selected budget approach. They argue defense and veterans funding should not be cut and they will not discuss tax increases for any Americans. 

7. A wild card: Ukraine. Dropped into the middle of this titanic wrestling match is the existential crisis of Ukraine’s battle for survival against Russia. The United States has directed some $75 billion in aid to Ukraine between the beginning of the war through July 2023. The White House is now asking for an additional $24 billion. That is sparking other breaks between members, especially among Republicans. Some ardently believe in funding Ukraine, while others want to end funding to most all-foreign wars. 

8. Another wild card: The border and immigration. Many of the same Republicans driving the train on fiscal issues are also impassioned about increasing border security and significantly tightening immigration rules, including steeper limits on who can immigrate and how. There is some GOP disagreement about how far to go with those limits. Democrats see Republicans’ approach here as fear-mongering and dangerous.

9. The big math problem: The House margin. Think of these dynamics as pieces from different puzzles that somehow need to fit together. The House needs to reach the number 217.  Republicans have just 221 votes in the chamber. At the best of times, it is an ill-fitting skinny jeans margin of just four votes for the GOP. But Republicans expect at least one absence as Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Okla., is healing after surgery. Republicans might look for some support from Democrats on a vote to avoid a government shutdown. But not in this case. Democrats, infuriated by the impeachment inquiry of President Joe Biden, have said they will not help Republicans on the critical “rules” vote to essentially start debate. That means it will come down to Republicans having to get near-unanimous agreement among themselves. 
   
   Combined with everything above, this is why many believe a shutdown is looming. 

10. The attempted GOP deal. Major players in the House Republican Conference, including Freedom Caucus and moderate leaders, made a late Sunday effort to reach a stopgap funding bill compromise. It is a furious attempt at some kind of foothold, and you can read it here. But those of you who are process nerds may immediately notice a problem.  
    
    A bill of 165 pages does far more than just tweak short-term spending. 
    
    And indeed, this one would cut spending nearly 8 percent for nearly all agencies outside of Defense and Veterans. That, along with immigration provisions limiting asylum claims, is an end-game problem for Democrats. They have made it clear they will not agree to this or anything like it and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called the effort “slapdash.” 
    
    But more pressing than what the Democrats think is that more than a dozen Republicans also have railed against the bill. (Those of you keeping up with the math can see this does not compute).  
    
    A vote is tentatively scheduled for Thursday, but a key procedure vote held Tuesday failed 212-214. Right now Republicans do not have the support to pass their own compromise. 

11. Meanwhile, in the Senate …  As the House spins in multiple directions (but not forward), the Senate faces its own unusual obstacle. Senators had been moving in a remarkably bipartisan direction, not just on a temporary funding bill but on most funding bills. But then Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., objected at a key point in the process. He single-handedly held up the chamber for days. It will attempt to override his objection this week. While critical time has been lost, the Senate is still working toward a bipartisan solution here and some votes are expected this week. 

12. How does this end? There is a “100-percent chance” of a shutdown, Rep. Norman  told me today. Norman, as we said above, is among those who think a shutdown might be worth the jolt because it could signal how serious conservatives are about spending, and give the larger problem of mounting debt the attention it needs. 
    
    He is not alone in his prediction. Republican after Republican today told me that, based simply on the work left to do and the approach the conference is taking, it is hard to see any outcome but a shutdown. 
    
    But there are others, including a simple or “clean” CR passing through the House and then the Senate, otherwise known as kicking the larger issues down the road for a month or two and avoiding a shutdown. For that to happen, the tables would need to turn and Democrats would need to back it en masse, with a handful of Republicans joining them.
    
    This is a real option and some groups, like the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, are working to configure that deal. It is, however, not politically likely. It would draw outcry and raise new questions about Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s capabilities. It would not necessarily lead directly to his ouster. But it would be a significant wound for him.
    
    Then there is a third possibility. If House Republicans are not able to agree on a bill in the next week, there could be a mass realization that they need more time and enough votes to allow for a bipartisan, temporary solution. 
    
    But options two and three are the longshots at the moment.