Outlook For Employment-Based Green Cards In 2023-2024

The scenario for employment-based green cards starting on October 1, 2023 looks good in the short term, but is terrible for the United States in the long run.

Our country will fall behind in the race for global talent unless our government reforms our outdated legal immigration system.

According to the U.S. State Department’s October 2023 Visa Bulletin:

EB-1 Priority Workers – For India, the Final Action Date will advance by 5 years to January 1, 2017 and by 2 weeks for China to February 15, 2022. The EB-1 category for all other countries will become current.

EB-2 Advanced Degreed Professionals – For India, the Final Action Date will advance by 1 year to January 1, 2012 and by nearly 3 months for China to October 1, 2019. EB-2 will advance for the rest of the world by 1 week to July 8, 2022.

EB-3 Professionals and Skilled Workers – The priority date for India will move ahead by 3+ years to May 1, 2012 and by 4 months for China to January 1, 2020. For all other countries, EB-3 will move forward by 19 months to December 1, 2021.

EB-5 Investors: Unreserved Categories – For India, the priority date will zoom forward by 20 months to December 15, 2018 and by 3 weeks to China to October 1, 2015. For persons born in other countries, EB-5 will remain current.

The USCIS has announced that in October, immigrants can apply for Adjustment of Status using the Date of Filing Charts which are more advanced than the Dates of Filing Charts referenced above.

So, given the good news in the October Visa Bulletin, why should we be less than optimistic about the waiting times for employment-based green cards in the coming months and years?

Under our immigration laws, employment-based green cards are limited to 140,000 per fiscal year (FY) plus any unused numbers in the family-based green card categories in the prior year.

COVID had a chilling affect on family-based green cards since most U.S. Embassies and Consulates operated at highly reduced rates during FY2021 and FY2022.  Most family-based applicants get their green cards abroad while most employment-based applicants adjust their status in the U.S.

The Department of State (DOS) determined that the FY 2022  annual limit on employment-based green cards was 281,507 – more than double the usual amount.  This was due to unused family-based visa numbers from FY 2021 being allocated to the next fiscal year’s available employment-based green cards.

Again, in the past fiscal year, the approximately 57,000 unused family-sponsored visa numbers from FY 2022 were added to the FY 2023 employment-based limit for a total of 197,000 EB green cards.

In the coming fiscal year which begins on October 1, 2023, USCIS estimates that the number of employment-based green cards will be reduced to 165,000. And I would not be surprised if the number sinks back to 140,000 next year.

How many people are waiting in line for employment-based green cards?

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not intended to establish an attorney-client relationship. All information contained in this newsletter is generalized. Any reliance on information contained herein is taken at your own risk.