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New Estimate: 12.6 Million Illegals in US; 9 Million in Labor Force
CIS scholar testifies on impact on American workers
Washington, D.C. (September 13, 2023) - The Center for Immigration Studies' Director of Research testified today before the House Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions on the impact of the recent surge in illegal immigration on American workers. Dr. Steven Camarota released his new estimate of the illegal immigrant population and summarized the research showing that immigration adversely impacts the wages and employment of some American workers, particularly those with modest education levels.
 
Dr. Camarota argued that illegal immigration must be understood in the context of the decades-long decline in the labor force participation of working-age U.S.-born Americans. He further explained that this crisis of non-work does not show up in official unemployment numbers. (People are counted as officially “unemployed” only if they are actively looking for a job.)  
 
Camarota pointed out, “Using large-scale illegal immigration to fill jobs may please employers, but it allows policymakers to ignore the decades-long decline in labor force participation that contributes to profound social problems, from crime and drug overdoses, to welfare dependency and suicide.”

 Overview:
  • An estimated 2.6 million inadmissible aliens have been released into the country since January 2021. There have also been 1.5 million “got-aways” — individuals observed entering illegally but not stopped. Visa overstays also have hit a record in FY 2022.
  • Based on monthly Census Bureau data, we preliminarily estimate that the illegal immigrant population grew to 12.6 million by May of this year, up 2.4 million since January 2021. Nearly 9 million are now in the labor force. However, additional research is necessary to confirm these estimates.
  • All prior research, and the limited data on new arrivals, indicates that illegal immigrants have modest education levels: some 69 percent of adult illegal immigrants have no education beyond high school, 13 percent have some college, and 18 percent have at least a bachelor’s.
  • Their education levels mean illegal immigrants are concentrated in lower-wage, less-skilled jobs, such as construction labor, building cleaning and maintenance, groundskeeping, retail sales, and food service, preparation, and processing. Still, the vast majority of workers in these jobs are U.S.-born or legal immigrants.
  • The notion that illegal immigrants take only jobs Americans don’t want is false. Even in the two dozen occupations where illegal immigrants are 15 percent or more of all the workers, 5.7 million U.S.-born Americans are employed.
  • Though often the focus of the illegal immigration debate, farmworkers comprise less than 5 percent of all illegal immigrant workers.
  • There is clear evidence that immigration reduces the wages and employment of some U.S.-born workers, although distinguishing the impact of illegal immigration in particular is difficult. 
  • In addition to direct competition for jobs, the availability of immigrant labor, much of it illegal, has allowed policymakers to ignore the decades-long decline in labor force participation among less-educated U.S.-born men, which coincides with the rapid increase in immigration since the 1960s.
  • For example, 96 percent of “prime-age” (25 to 54) U.S.-born men with no more than a high school education were in the labor force in 1960 — meaning working or at least looking for work. By 2000, it had fallen to 87 percent, and by 2023 it was just 82 percent.
  • Job competition with immigrants, including illegal immigrants, is not the only reason for this decline. However, immigration, including large-scale illegal immigration, has allowed society to ignore the decline and the accompanying social pathologies.
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