Data for Progress is committed to providing the most accurate data for progressives. We know that progressive change is possible — and it’s popular. But many people in the mainstream media and the establishment don’t want to believe that. We’ve consistently been putting out polls showing progressive policies are popular — which have occasionally been met with skepticism because we’re a progressive organization.

So we’ve decided to put ourselves to the test by publicly polling the Democratic primary. And reader, it’s been a success. Cuts in media budgets have left big gaps in polling for the public interest. Nobody is paying us for these polls — we’re doing this to give voters an accurate picture of the race. If you want to help us continue to put out more accurate polling both on primaries and progressive issues, donate by clicking the button below.

New Polls: Bernie is Leading in Colorado and Virginia
Just this afternoon, we released two brand new Super Tuesday polls for Colorado and Virginia. They show Bernie Sanders with a strong lead in both states.

In Colorado, Sanders is leading with 34 percent, followed by Warren (20 percent), Buttigieg (14 percent), and Bloomberg (14 percent). Biden is in fifth with just 10 percent.

In Virginia, Sanders is leading Biden by a 28-19 margin, followed by Warren and Bloomberg, both of which are at 17 percent.


An Update on Our Early State Polling
When we released our poll of Nevada last week, it was a bit of an outlier.

There was little Nevada polling, but what we did know was that a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released on February 14 had Sanders leading Biden by 7 percent in the Silver State, while FiveThirtyEight’s polling average had Sanders up by 8 percent.

Our poll found something different. On February 17, we released data showing Sanders with a commanding 19 percent lead in Nevada.



We released an additional Nevada poll on February 21 showing very similar findings: Sanders with a wide lead at 35 percent of the vote, followed by Elizabeth Warren (16 percent), Joe Biden (16 percent), and Pete Buttigieg (15 percent).

At the time, these polls may have seemed like outliers. But as the results from Saturday show, they were highly accurate. Sanders received 34 percent of the first vote in Nevada (-1 from our most recent poll), Biden got about 18 percent (+2), Buttigieg received 15 percent (-0-), and Warren received 13 percent (-3).

Thanks to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. for noticing:





Our polling in Nevada is leaving a big impact. Our work is getting lots of attention, and it’s helping change narratives across the country, fuel grassroots progressive movements, and combat centrist and right-wing narratives. We’re looking forward to even bigger projects in the coming months — but we need your support to make it happen. Please donate by clicking the button below.

Our polling wasn’t just accurate in Nevada — it was highly accurate in all three early states.

In Iowa, our polling found Bernie Sanders in first with 22 percent, followed by Elizabeth Warren (19 percent), Pete Buttigieg (18 percent), and Joe Biden (18 percent). 



Our results weren’t far off. Sanders got 25 percent of the first vote (+3), Buttigieg received 21 percent (+3), Warren got 18 percent (-1), and Biden underperformed with 15 percent (-3). According to an analysis from G. Elliott Morris, our Iowa poll was the most accurate of any pollster in terms of mean error of vote shares for Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Yang.

Our New Hampshire results were also accurate. We projected that Sanders would receive 28 percent of the vote, followed by Buttigieg (26 percent), Warren (14 percent), Klobuchar (13 percent), and Biden (9 percent).



In reality, Sanders beat Buttigieg by a 26-24 margin, the same margin that our poll predicted. Klobuchar overperformed (+7), while Warren underperformed (-5). We correctly anticipated that Biden would wind up in fifth place in the single digits: he only received 8 percent of the vote (-1).

In G. Elliott Morris’ analysis of both Iowa and New Hampshire polls released in the final week, we came in third out of 16 different pollsters.

And in a new polling accuracy ranking from JHK Forecasts, we’re the #1 pollster so far in the Democratic primaries.



Across the board, people are starting to pay serious attention to our polling. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten:



We’re excited about the accuracy of our polling from the first three contests, and we have no intention of slowing down. We'll be breaking the South Carolina and Super Tuesday polling drought in the coming days. Please help us keep up the pace by donating below!