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SEPTEMBER STAKES
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
 
That relative feeling of calm, confidence and, could it be, predictability that you may have known recently has a name: congressional recess.
 
Since July, both the House and Senate have been out of Washington, with some lawmakers giving speeches and working with constituents, and others taking trips overseas.
 
But beginning today, they are back. First the Senate, which has a sort of half day to start before its first full day back Wednesday. The House will still be quiet. Lawmakers there are scheduled for another week of recess — a total of six, in case anyone is curious. They return next week.
 
Both chambers, and the country, face a very short runway in the weeks ahead, fraught with possible peril and certain drama. We’ve tackled some of this before, but now is a good time for us all to take a clear-eyed look at this month and beyond.
 
A possible government shutdown
 
Without a funding bill from Congress, signed by the president, most government agencies will run out of money Sept. 30. 
 
We’ve seen this movie before. Often with the same ending: Congress passing a short-term funding bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR for short). And indeed, that is what House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has told his members they should expect.
 
However, this year’s political collision includes a particularly complicated mix of demands and dynamics.
 
The overall problem. Congress is divided and passing few bills. When a “must-pass” bill — say, one to fund all of the government — comes due, many powerful interests fight to get their causes into (or out of) the bill. It becomes do-or-die and also fund-or-shut down. Let’s go through the specific issues.

• The House Freedom Caucus has a problem. The conservative group plans to vote against any “clean” CR, meaning one which only keeps government funded and does nothing else. They are demanding that a short-term funding bill also include: tougher border security, measures that address the “unprecedented weaponization” of the Department of Justice, and bans on some Pentagon policies, which conservatives decry as too “woke.”
• That is not big enough to block a bipartisan funding bill. The Freedom Caucus has roughly 45-55 members. (Pew Research Center counted 49 members or allies in January.) But the Freedom Caucus can easily threaten Speaker McCarthy’s job security. (Here is one article on how.) The group can and likely will argue that if McCarthy needs Democrats to pass a funding bill, which he would without the Freedom Caucus, he is undermining conservative power and goals.  
• McCarthy’s power. McCarthy emerged intact from the last standoff with some in the Freedom Caucus, smoothly shrugging off their criticism and proclaiming the debt deal he struck with President Joe Biden a winner for Republicans. But some unhappy members threatened a “reckoning” and this could be that moment. 
• Also, the Freedom Caucus and members like Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, are demanding Congress cut spending farther back than what is in the May debt deal.  
• The House and Senate also have a major problem. Those conservative spending demands set up a faceoff with the Senate, where appropriators passed all 12 appropriations bills separately for the first time since 2018 and set a spending level equal to the debt deal. So, higher than House conservatives want. 
• The Senate has two major advantages. The Senate is often the more difficult chamber because it usually requires bipartisanship — 60 votes — to pass a bill. For this reason, the House is often given the choice of “a bill the Senate likes or no bill.” This seems to be the initial dynamic here. The Senate also returns a week earlier than the House and will potentially pass more appropriations bills to show for it.
• But wait, there’s more! There are several other major issues hovering in the discussion. Biden and others want more money to aid Ukraine, and FEMA wants a special line of funding to help a key disaster fund that is already running out of money in a record-breaking year for costly, weather-related events. These two things are sparking separate standoffs that directly affect the funding debate.

What happens next? We expect the Senate to start bundling its appropriations bills together in small batches — called “minibuses” (really) — and attempt to pass one or two this week. That is a message to the House, which will be at least a week behind. Though, in truth, both are running out of time. 
 
McConnell’s next chance to explain what’s happening

Amid this complicated existential and financial crisis, the Capitol also faces a leadership question: Can Mitch McConnell stay in his job as Republican Senate leader?
 
McConnell, who is the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, froze at a press event in Kentucky last week. This was the second time that has happened to him. (The first was in July). 
 
For the first time as Senate minority leader, McConnell faces real questions about his future.