Solar Storms and Risks on Earth

In February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites from a Falcon 9 rocket into low-earth orbit. A day after being deployed, the company reported that a geomagnetic storm disrupted the trajectories of 40 of their satellites, causing them to burn up upon reentry to the planet. While the impact to date on satellites has been limited, it’s important to understand that solar storms happen with some regularity, due to the sun’s 11-year solar cycle.

Every cycle, the star’s magnetic field flips (meaning the north and south poles switch places), generating a period of increasing and decreasing solar activity (visible via sunspots). Giant eruptions on the sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) send massive amounts of solar material and radiation into space. Because these ejections head out in all directions from the sun, most miss Earth. But every now and then, a tidal wave of charged particles does strike our planet and temporarily disturbs the Earth’s magnetic fields. When this occurs, aurora lights that are normally only visible near the poles can be seen closer to the equator (see video below):

Fortunately, most solar storms do not directly affect humans, but the magnetic disturbances can change the density of the atmosphere in which satellites are moving (as was the case in 2022 with the Starlink satellites) or far more importantly, they can create magnetic activity that induces potentially problematic electric currents.

On March 10, 1989 astronomers observed a massive eruption on the sun that sent a billion-ton cloud of gas (with the energy equivalent of thousands of nuclear bombs simultaneously exploding) toward Earth at a million miles per hour. The geomagnetic storm it created on Earth was noticeable on March 12th when aurora borealis (the “northern lights”) could be seen in Florida and Cuba, visible evidence of an extremely powerful solar storm. When the disruption finally “made landfall” during the early morning of March 13, 1989, more than 200 American power grid problems emerged and the entire grid in Quebec Canada failed.

The event, known as the Quebec Blackout, was by no means the most powerful solar storm to hit Earth. That distinction continues to be held (as of August 28, 2023) by the Carrington Event of 1859. On September 1st of that year, amateur skywatcher Richard Carrington was sketching sunspots when he observed a “white light flare” that lasted about five minutes. The coronal mass ejection that Carrington had seen was massive and took a mere 17.6 hours to reach Earth rather than the days it took during the Quebec Blackout. It’s believed the burst contained as much energy as a billion atomic bombs. The massive geomagnetic storm led to auroral displays in the tropics and wreaked havoc on the then-prevailing communications technology, the telegraph. According to History.com,

E.W. Culgan, a telegraph manager in Pittsburgh, reported that the resulting currents flowing through the wires were so powerful that platinum contacts were in danger of melting and “streams of fire” were pouring forth from the circuits. In Washington, D.C., telegraph operator Frederick W. Royce was severely shocked as his forehead grazed a ground wire. According to a witness, an arc of fire jumped from Royce’s head to the telegraphic equipment. Some telegraph stations that used chemicals to mark sheets reported that powerful surges caused telegraph paper to combust.

While the breakdown of communications and power systems can indeed be concerning, a massive solar storm in 1967 came close to spurring a global nuclear war between the United States and the USSR. In May of that year, a geomagnetic storm disrupted the radars of America’s Ballistic Missile Early Warning System. It appeared to many military leaders as Soviet radar jamming these radar immediately prior to a nuclear attack on the United States. Commanders put US forces in a “ready to launch” status, but because of the Air Force’s emerging interest in solar storms and space weather, solar forecasters at NORAD were able to convince military commanders that the radar attacks came from the sun. Yes, it’s true, space weathermen prevented nuclear war!

Unfortunately, the devastating impacts of powerful solar storms have been replicated by humans here on Earth. “High-altitude nuclear detonations, specialized conventional munitions, or non-nuclear directed energy devices” can be used to create similar, or even more powerful, effects. By intentionally creating and directing the power of a geomagnetic storm, these electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks can bring down targeted electricity grids and other critical infrastructure. The effects could cripple the United States (or any other country for that matter), something made crystal clear by William Forstchen’s novel One Second After (a book I highly recommend!). In fact, James Woolsey, former director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, testified in 2015 to the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs on the potential impact of an EMP attack on America:

…There are essentially two estimates on how many people would die from hunger, from starvation, from lack of water, and from social disruption. One estimate is that within a year or so, two-thirds of the United States population would die. The other estimate is that within a year or so, 90% of the U.S. population would die. We’re talking about total devastation. We’re not talking about just a regular catastrophe.

In 2017, in the midst of tension-escalating regular rocket launches, North Korea state media noted that it possessed a “multifunctional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP according to strategic goals.”

Given our ever increasing reliance on technology and electricity, a Carrington Event or EMP attack on the United States would likely create chaos as power disappeared for weeks, months, or possibly even years. Forstchen’s book provides a powerful scenario of what might transpire “one second after” an EMP attack. I won't ruin it or you, but imagine a world in which refrigeration wasn't available, cars didn’t run, and basic societal safety nets broke down…for months and months.

There is also a forthcoming documentary called “Grid Down, Power Up” produced by my friend David Tice and narrated by Dennis Quaid that does a superb job of highlighting our dependence on the grid and its many vulnerabilities. I recently watched it and can say without question that it should be required for all government officials, policymakers, business leaders, and students to watch.

Preventing asymmetric threats from solar storms and EMP attacks is almost impossible to do. For one, we don't fully understand the dynamics within the sun and are still not able to predict when solar eruptions are going to happen, how large they may be, and in which direction they will point. Artificial intelligence and quantum computing promise to increase our understanding, but advancements are far from certain and the timing unknown. It’s also notoriously hard to predict when a country like North Korea is going to launch a missile and its likely objective. Intelligence efforts can assist, but they rarely provide certainty. But in both cases, early warning systems can help us have a jump on preparing before the likely strikes. Space weather monitoring will continuously improve over time, and missile defense systems offer some promise in protecting critical infrastructure from EMP attacks.

While we should definitely try to prevent or least learn rapidly about inbound solar storms or EMP attacks, it’s also critical that we also focus on resilience and the ability to withstand magnetic disruptions. We’ve hardened much of our critical infrastructure against electricity surges from lightning strikes, why not do so from geomagnetic and electromagnetic pulses? In the grand scheme of matters, the additional cost is an insurance premium worth paying.

Finally, we should develop plans for how we can coordinate monitoring, warning, resilience, and response efforts across the United States government. In this regard, the United States’ National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan and the Executive Order on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses are steps in the right direction. But we need to do a lot more. We must raise awareness of the risks and the many solutions that are available today. As “Grid Down, Power Up” makes clear, what’s ultimately at risk is our way of life, and surely that’s something everyone believes we should protect.

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About Vikram Mansharamani

Dr. Mansharamani is a global generalist who tries to look beyond the short term view that tends to dominate today’s agenda. He spends his time speaking with leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism…and prides himself on voraciously consuming a wide variety of books, magazines, articles, TV shows, and podcasts. LinkedIn twice listed him as their #1 Top Voice for Global Economics and Worthprofiled him on their list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. He has taught at Yale and Harvard and has a PhD and two masters degrees from MIT. He is also the author of THINK FOR YOURSELF: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence as well as BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst. Follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn.