|
|
|
|
Welcome to the Tuesday, Feb. 25, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Super Tuesday overview
- Previewing the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama
- Tuesday trivia: Which state has the highest percentage of its population living in Pivot Counties?
|
Super Tuesday overview
We’re in the final countdown! Super Tuesday—March 3— is now only one week away. Here is a breakdown of the coverage we’ll be bringing you:
- Elections for 869 offices
- Thirty battleground primaries in four states:
- Texas (14)
- California (9)
- North Carolina (4)
- Alabama (3)
- Three state legislative primary battleground chambers:
- All three races are in Texas; two state House districts and one state Senate seat
- Three statewide ballot measures in Alabama, California, and Maine
- More than 300 local ballot measures in California
And, of course, 14 states and the territory of American Samoa are holding a presidential preference vote on Super Tuesday. While the states participating in Super Tuesday have changed over time, the winner has gone on to claim the party nomination 17 of 18 times.
The pie chart below shows the number of pledged Democratic National Convention delegates at stake on various dates of the 2020 presidential nominating process. Primary and caucus results on Super Tuesday will determine the allocation of 1,344 delegates to various Democratic presidential candidates.
With both California and Texas—the two most populous states—holding their primaries on Super Tuesday, approximately 40% of the U.S. population has a primary event on March 3. So far, 101 delegates have been pledged to five Democratic presidential candidates: Sen. Bernie Sanders (45), Pete Buttigieg (26), Joe Biden (15), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8), and Amy Klobuchar (7).
The Democratic Party will also hold the 10th of 12 scheduled presidential primary debates tonight—Feb. 25—in Charleston, SC. Seven candidates have qualified to participate: Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Tom Steyer, and Warren. South Carolina holds its presidential primary four days later on Feb. 29.
The candidates had three paths to qualify: (1) receive at least one pledged delegate from Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada; (2) receive 10% support in four national and/or South Carolina polls; or (3) receive 12% support in two South Carolina polls.
Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren qualified via the delegate requirement. Bloomberg received 10% support in four polls, and Steyer received 12% support in two South Carolina polls.
|
|
Previewing the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama
Continuing our preview of the March 3 battleground primaries, today we focus on the GOP Senate primary in Alabama.
The race will decide which Republican will be on the ballot against incumbent Doug Jones (D) in November. Jones won the 2017 special election for the office. He defeated Roy Moore, 50% to 48%. President Donald Trump won Alabama in the 2016 presidential race, defeating Hillary Clinton 62% to 34%.
The Republican primary features seven candidates. To win the primary outright, a candidate needs a majority of the vote. If no one wins a majority, the top two finishers will meet in a runoff on March 31.
Former Sen. Jeff Sessions is seeking to win back the seat, from which he resigned in 2017 when Trump appointed him U.S. attorney general. Roy Moore is seeking a rematch with Jones. U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, and former college football coach Tommy Tuberville are also running.
The candidates have largely focused on conservative credentials and who has been most supportive of Trump.
Two independent polls from early February showed Sessions and Tuberville in a statistical tie for the lead, and Byrne in third. Both Sessions and Tuberville received around 30% support.
Byrne, Sessions, and Tuberville have been running ads criticizing one another over past conflicts with, or comments about, the president, among other issues.
- Byrne and Tuberville criticized Sessions for recusing himself from the investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election during his time as attorney general. Sessions has defended his recusal and emphasized that he was the first senator to endorse Trump's 2016 presidential bid.
- Sessions and Tuberville criticized Byrne for saying that Trump was not fit to be president in 2016 following the release of the Access Hollywood recording. Byrne has said the comment was a mistake and that he worked to defend Trump against the impeachment effort in the House.
- Byrne and Sessions ads said Tuberville supported amnesty for people in the country illegally. Sessions' ads also featured audio of Tuberville criticizing Trump on veterans' healthcare. Tuberville has said he does not support amnesty and that Trump has not been able to do everything he'd like due to resistance from others.
Democrats in Alabama and Michigan are defending Senate seats in states the president won in 2016. In Colorado and Maine, Republicans are defending Senate seats in states Hillary Clinton won. Republicans currently hold a 53-45 majority in the U.S. Senate. In addition, two independents caucus with Democrats.
|
Which state has the highest percentage of its population living in Pivot Counties?
Last week, I shared our 2020 primary analysis of Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic voter turnout in Pivot Counties. New Hampshire and Iowa have the second- and third-most percentage of their population living in Pivot Counties.
So for today’s question, we’re asking: Which state has the highest percentage of its population living in Pivot Counties?
|
|
Ballotpedia depends on the support of our readers.
The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
|
|
|
|
|
