[ The 4-week old turmoil in the West African state of Niger is
taking a curious turn that no longer allows a binary vision of
“neo-colonialism and imperialism” versus “national
liberation”.]
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NIGER REVOLUTION TAKES BONAPARTIST TURN
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M. K. Bhadrakumar
August 23, 2023
Indian Punchline
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_ The 4-week old turmoil in the West African state of Niger is taking
a curious turn that no longer allows a binary vision of
“neo-colonialism and imperialism” versus “national
liberation”. _
General Abdouramane Tchiani who assumed power in Niger on July 26,
2023, previously headed the elite Presidential Guards.,
Niger’s coup leaders are making overtures to the United States and
keeping the Russian military contractors, Wagner PMC, at arm’s
length — at least, at the present stage of transition of power.
The speed with which Washington deployed Kathleen FitzGibbon, an ace
Africa hand with intelligence background, as its new ambassador to
Niamey signals diplomacy as the preferred course while keeping all
options on the table.
Significantly, in an editorial, Washington Post
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note today that “The two armies [US and Nigerian] have worked
closely together over the past decade: Officers are familiar with one
another, and Niger’s generals have not been considered
anti-American.”
Equally, the US state department readout
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Ambassador FitzGibbon highlighted that her rushed assignment aims to
“bolster efforts to help resolve the political crisis at this
critical time” and that her “diplomatic focus will be to advocate
for a diplomatic solution.”
Interestingly, the readout limits itself to call for the release of
the ousted president and his family members and ignored the earlier
specific demand regarding his reinstatement. The readout hints that
the US diplomacy is casting the net wide and will not limit itself to
the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
On the eve of Ambassador FitzGibbon’s arrival in Niamey, New York
Times carried an interview with Ali Lamine Zeine, the prime
minister-designate of Niger. Most certainly, Zeine, the topmost
civilian official in the military junta, spoke for the generals and
was addressing the western audience.
Zeine’s remarks suggest that the ruling cabal in Niamey are a smart
lot and could be in the long game, who seek a direct engagement with
the US. Indeed, the ECOWAS itself is caught in two minds after its
first face-to-face interaction with the coup leader General
Abdouramane Tchiani in the weekend.
The ECOWAS mediatory mission was led by General Abdulsalami Abubakar,
the enormously influential statesman and king maker, who was
Nigeria’s last military head of state and a source of moral
authority who had kept his word to hand over power to a democratically
elected government, making the long-awaited dream of Nigerians a
reality.
After returning from Niamey, Abubakar briefed President Bola Tinubu
and later spoke to the media
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he expressed optimism that the crisis in Niger is not likely to
deteriorate beyond diplomacy. Asked if there was any possibility of
avoiding a military action by ECOWAS in Niger, Abubakar stated:
“Hopefully, diplomacy will see the better of this. Nobody wants to
go war, it doesn’t pay anybody, but then again, our leaders have
said if all fails — and I don’t think all will fail, we’ll get
somewhere, we’ll get out of this mess.”
Succinctly put, Niger faces a “messy” situation rather than a
revolutionary situation. Perhaps, certain Bonapartist elements are
discernible — for which, of course, there is plenty of blame to go
around, as Africa’s elites and their failures are a major factor,
not only because public opinion associates them with France but due to
twin malaise of a poverty of political ideologies and populism, apart
from the rise of new generations of young people frustrated by a
status quo that, in their eyes, is of France’s making.
Importantly, therefore, the threat of Russia filling the vacuum is
overstated and should not justify Western intervention. What needs to
be understood is that part of of Russia’s appeal is that many
Africans see Moscow as sort of “anti-France”. Conversely, the less
France lives as an exploitative ex-colonial power in the popular
imagination, the less Russia’s symbolic appeal will become.
One can see that Russians themselves understand this behind Moscow’s
anti-colonial, anti-imperialist rhetoric. A commentary in the Russian
daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted
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that “For the Russian Federation, it is noteworthy that the
putschists for the first time dissociated themselves from Russia and
the Wagner PMCs, assuring the West that they were ready to conduct
political and economic cooperation with it.”
However, General Tchiani, who heads the putschists, is not going to
give up power. On the other hand, he no longer repeats that former
president Bazum will be put on trial. The ECOWAS delegation who met
the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, estimated that he isn’t in any
imminent danger. The putschists have heeded Washington’s stern
warning.
General Tchiani is also distancing himself
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raucous public support of the putschists, which seems to embarrass
him. The salience, according to the Russian daily, is that “judging
by the recent actions and statements of the Niger military, they
really do not want to sever all opportunities for dialogue with
France, the United States and the organisations they support.
In the New York Times interview
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Zeine outlined the ideas of the new authorities’ foreign policy
priorities. He categorically rejected the assumptions and claims that
Moscow was behind the coup. “I don’t see any intentions from the
military government of Niger to cooperate with Russia or with the
Wagner group,” Zeine said.
He even cautioned the West to be discreet not to push Niger into the
arms of the Wagner. (According to reports, the redoubtable head of
Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin has flown into neighbouring Mali in
Sahel, fuelling speculations
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Most important, Zeine clearly told New York Times that the pro-French
foreign policy vector will remain unchanged for Niger even under the
new authorities. “We studied at French universities, our officers
studied in France,” he said.
On the whole, Nezavisimaya Gazeta wryly noted, “Judging by the
interview, the only thing that Tchiani and his associates are seeking
is a revision of the terms of cooperation with the former metropolis.
As Zeine put it, “we just want to be respected.” Conceivably, this
refers to the revision of the conditions for the extraction of
Niger’s uranium and gold reserves. Both are now suspended.
That said, there is great uncertainty regarding the actual intentions
of the protagonists. Is the junta, which has class or corporate
interests, seeking some concessions to save face or is merely
buying time? Is the West scaling down its earlier strident demands of
immediate restoration of democratic rule to a modest realistic
expectation to let Bazoum go into exile and pin down the putschists to
a timeline for transfer of power to an elected government? There are
no easy answers.
One significant straw in the wind is that the African Union, at a
session in its headquarters in Addis Ababa on Tuesday, while
suspending Niger’s membership, decided that it needed time to study
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implications of any armed intervention in that country.
The domestic opinion within Nigeria is also vehemently opposed to any
ECOWAS military intervention. After all, similar past interventions in
Liberia and Sierra Leone didn’t have happy endings Nigeria which was
led up the garden path by Western powers and left holding the can of
worms. Nigeria has its hands full with a serious internal security
situation
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allows no distractions. The northern Nigerian provinces have tribal,
ethnic affinities with Niger and have come out against war.
_[M. K. BHADRAKUMAR [[link removed]] was a
career diplomat by profession. For someone growing up in the 1960s in
a remote town at the southern tip of India, diplomacy was an
improbable profession. His passion was for the world of literature,
writing and politics – roughly in that order. While doing doctoral
research on the works of Tennessee Williams, however, friends
encouraged him to have a fling at the Civil Services Examination. "As
it turned out, before I could figure out the momentous import of what
was unfolding, fate had pitchforked me into the top ranks of the merit
list and ushered me into the Indian Foreign Service."_
_"Roughly half of the 3 decades of my diplomatic career was devoted to
assignments on the territories of the former Soviet Union and to
Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Other overseas postings included South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Turkey. I write mainly on Indian
foreign policy and the affairs of the Middle East, Eurasia, Central
Asia, South Asia and the Asia-Pacific."]_
* Niger
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* Africa
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* neo-colonialism
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* neo-imperialism
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* imperialism
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* France
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* Russia
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* Wagner Group
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* Militarism
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* U.S. foreign policy
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* Nigeria
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* Sierra Leone
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* Liberia
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* Economic Community of West African States
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* ECOWAS
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* West Africa
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